Forecasts of Economic Trends
IMAD's forecasts represent background documents used by Slovenia's government in preparing economic policy measures and drafting the state budget. They include analyses and forecasts for the current year and the following two years. They are released twice a year, in March and September. In the event of extraordinary events in Slovenia or abroad, interim forecasts are prepared.
Summer Forecast of Economic Trends 2020
The COVID-19 epidemic, in combination with stringent health protection and containment measures, represents a significant negative shock to economic activity, which will contract strongly this year. The depth of the GDP decline and the dynamics of the recovery are (and will be) crucially dependent on the epidemiological situation and the scope and content of economic policy measures. In the…
Summer forecast 2020: This year a strong economic decline; the pace of recovery will depend on the epidemiological situation and the combination of economic policy measures
The COVID-19 epidemic, in combination with stringent health protection and containment measures, represents a significant negative shock to economic activity, which will contract strongly this year. The depth of the GDP decline and the dynamics of the recovery are (and will be) crucially dependent on the epidemiological situation and the scope and content of economic policy measures. In the…
COVID-19 Scenario
The spread of the coronavirus epidemic and the emergency health protection measures are strongly affecting economic activity, which is set to shrink significantly this year. The depth of the GDP decline and the dynamics of the recovery after the end of the crisis situation are and will be crucially dependent on the extent and duration of the coronavirus spread and the time of the introduction and…
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2019
Economic growth will slow to 2.8% this year and remain at a similar level in the next two. This year’s moderation will mainly reflect the slowdown of economic growth in Slovenia’s trading partners and deteriorated expectations until the end of the year. These factors will be reflected particularly in lower growth in gross capital formation and a considerable negative contribution of external…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2019
With the easing of economic activity in the international environment, GDP growth will gradually slow this year (3.4%) and in the next two (3.1% and 2.8%); the importance of domestic consumption will increase, while exports will contribute less to economic growth. The growth of exports will continue to moderate mainly on account of slower GDP growth in Slovenia’s trading partners. The growth of…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2020
The spring forecast was made at the time of significant uncertainties regarding the further spread and duration of the coronavirus outbreak in neighbouring countries and Slovenia. In the event of a gradual containment of the coronavirus spread and stabilisation of the situation in the second half of this year, economic growth would ease to around 1.5% this year, before rising somewhat again in the…
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2018
Economic growth is expected to total 4.4% this year and remain at relatively high levels in the next year (3.7%). Export growth is expected to be somewhat more moderate this year and in the next, yet still strong. Investment growth will remain high. Employment growth will remain high this year, before moderating in the coming years, mainly under the impact of demographic change. The main risks to…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2018
High broad-based economic growth will continue this year (5.1%); a continuation of favourable economic trends is also expected for 2019 (3.8%). Export growth, underpinned by gains in competitiveness from previous years and a favourable export structure, is expected to remain high in 2018 and subsequent years. Domestic consumption will remain a significant factor of growth in 2018–2020. The growth…
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2017
The Autumn Forecast predicts 4.4% GDP growth for this year; in the next two years the broad-based economic growth will continue, hovering between 3% and 4%. The forecast is based on assumptions of stable economic conditions at home and internationally and favourable expectations. The key drivers of this year’s faster growth are the high growth of exports and the dynamics of government investment;…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2017
The Spring Forecast envisages GDP growth strengthening to 3.6% this year and then hovering around 3% in 2018 and 2019. Favourable labour market trends will persist, but towards the end of the forecasting period they will be increasingly characterised by demographic change. After last year’s strongest growth of the average wage in five years, we expect its further strengthening in 2017–2019.…