Forecasts of Economic Trends

Under the baseline scenario, which does not assume persistently elevated oil and gas prices or disruptions to their supply, economic growth in Slovenia is projected to strengthen to 2.0% this year – broadly in line with the autumn forecast – assuming the anticipated growth in external demand. A similar pace of economic activity growth is expected over the following two years. The export sector…

GDP growth in 2025 is expected to slow to below 1% (from 1.7% last year to 0.8%), well below what was expected in the spring. The deceleration is primarily attributable to weaker export activity, particularly in the first half of the year, reflecting the economy’s strong exposure to challenges in European industry. Against this backdrop, economic growth in 2025 will be driven mainly by domestic…

Economic growth is expected to strengthen to 2.1% this year. Domestic consumption will be a key driver of higher GDP growth this year, in particular continued growth in private consumption supported by rising wages and social transfers, as well as a recovery in investment after last year’s decline. In particular, investment activity of the government sector will strengthen, supported by funds from…

Economic growth is expected to slow this year (to 1.5%) and thus be lower than expected in IMAD’s Spring Forecast (2.4%). Overall export growth is expected to be lower than projected in the Spring Forecast due to weaker growth in foreign demand and a decline in services exports. At the same time, it is expected to be lower than growth in foreign demand also this year due to pressures from rising…

Economic growth will pick up this year (from 1.6% last year to 2.4%), albeit somewhat more modestly than we had forecast in the autumn (2.8%). Economic activity will benefit from continued investment growth, easing of inflationary pressures and a recovery in foreign demand, although this will be somewhat weaker than expected in the autumn. We expect a recovery in goods exports after last year’s…

Economic growth is slowing this year, especially in the export-oriented part of the economy, growth in private consumption is also lower than last year, while construction investment continues to increase. In its Autumn Forecast, the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) forecasts real GDP growth of 1.6% this year. This is slightly lower than what was predicted in the spring…

Since autumn, uncertainty about energy supply and prices started to recede and the outlook for economic growth in Slovenia’s main trading partners has improved accordingly, although it will remain significantly lower this year and in the next two years than last year. Economic growth in Slovenia is also expected to slow significantly this year (from 5.4% last year to 1.8%), but will exceed our…

The Forecast was prepared under conditions of great uncertainty, mainly related to the situation on the energy markets, which is deteriorating as the war in Ukraine continues, contributing to the worsening of the economic outlook for Slovenia’s main trading partners. In the Autumn Forecast, IMAD predicts GDP growth of 5% for this year, which is 0.8 p.p. more than was predicted in the spring,…

The Spring Forecast of Economic Trends was prepared in a situation of high uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. After a deep downturn in 2020 and a strong rebound last year, we expect GDP growth of 4.2% this year, which is 0.5 p.p. lower than projected in our Autumn Forecast. We had already projected a slowdown of growth before the start of the war in Ukraine, mainly due to last year’s high…

The economic outlook has improved and we expect GDP growth of 6.1% this year. Mainly due to higher forecasts in the international environment, faster-than-expected activity growth, especially in the second quarter and the summer months, and the continued adjustment of businesses and consumers to the changed conditions, our forecast is higher than projected in the Spring Forecast (4.6%). After a…