Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2024: Economic activity is expected to slow this year, followed by a higher GDP growth in the coming years
Economic growth is expected to slow this year (to 1.5%) and thus be lower than expected in IMAD’s Spring Forecast (2.4%). Overall export growth is expected to be lower than projected in the Spring Forecast due to weaker growth in foreign demand and a decline in services exports. At the same time, it is expected to be lower…
Charts of the week from 2 to 6 September 2024: unemployment, value of fiscally verified invoices, exports and imports of goods
According to seasonally adjusted data, the number of registered unemployed continued to decline month-on-month in…
Charts of the week from 26 to 30 August 2024: consumer prices, active and inactive population, turnover in trade and other charts
Inflation continued to decrease in August, reaching 0.9% year-on-year. This decline was again primarily driven by the…
Charts of the week from 19 to 23 August 2024: number of persons in employment, average gross wage per employee and Slovenian industrial producer prices
In June, the number of persons in employment remained unchanged month-on-month, while year-on-year growth fell slightly…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth is expected to slow this year (to 1.5%) and thus be lower than expected in the spring (2.4%). We expect GDP growth to pick up again in the next two years. Inflation is expected to remain low until November, before rising towards the end of the year and the beginning of next year due to the low base effect and the expiry of measures to curb high energy prices; we estimate that it will approach 2% again in 2026.
Labour market
Employment is at a record high, while unemployment is at a historic low. Given the already high level of employment, growth will be dampened by severe labour shortages over the next two years. The tight labour market will be somewhat alleviated by measures to facilitate the attraction and recruitment of foreign labour, so that growth will continue to be supported mainly by the hiring of foreign nationals.
International trade
Exports of goods are expected to increase again this year (after a decline last year), while exports of services will decline. Growth will be dampened by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. Amid strong growth in domestic consumption, import growth is expected to significantly outpace export growth, resulting in a negative foreign trade balance. Over the next two years, gradually higher growth in foreign demand will be followed by higher growth in exports and related activities.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.