Autumn forecast

Economic growth will slow to 2.8% this year and remain at a similar level in the next two. This year’s moderation will mainly reflect the slowdown of economic growth in Slovenia’s trading partners and deteriorated expectations until the end of the year. These factors will be reflected particularly in lower growth in gross capital formation and a considerable negative contribution of external trade. Growth in private consumption will remain relatively high. Given the current forecasts for economic growth in trading partners, GDP growth will remain at a similar level next year. Amid further moderate growth in exports, domestic consumption will also continue to rise. Among the risks to the forecast, negative risks in the international environment predominate, some of them strengthening further in recent months. If they were to materialise, economic growth could be lower than projected in the central scenario.