Goods exports continue to decline, while in manufacturing activity has strengthened in recent months in high- and medium-low-technology industries. Growth is strengthening primarily in construction and also in most market services. The negative monthly developments in manufacturing have come to a halt in recent months; production continues to increase in high- and medium-low-technology industries (seasonally adjusted). On a year-on-year basis, however, manufacturing output remained lower than a year earlier, declining by 1.1% over the first ten months of the year. Although expectations regarding future production in manufacturing improved further in October, order books remained at a low level. Real goods exports declined on a monthly basis for the third consecutive month in October, falling back to the level recorded in April. The decline was driven mainly by exports to EU countries. Among products, exports of metals and metal products decreased, while exports of pharmaceuticals and other chemical products increased. In the first ten months of the year, total goods exports remained roughly unchanged year-on-year (–0.1%), while imports rose by 0.7%. In the first ten months, exports and imports of services exceeded their levels from the same period last year (by 3.2% and 4.5%, respectively), reflecting increased trade in most main service groups. In the first ten months of the year, the current account surplus was more than EUR 400 million lower year-on-year, amounting to EUR 2.4 billion. After declining in the first quarter, growth in the value of construction work put in place strengthened markedly from the second quarter onwards and, over the ten-month period, was one tenth higher year-on-year. The values of all types of construction works increased, in particular in the construction of non-residential buildings (16%) and specialised construction activities (15%); growth was also higher in civil engineering (7%), while it remained modest in the construction of residential buildings (1%). Turnover in market services is also strengthening. In the third quarter, it increased markedly on a quarter-on-quarter basis (2.8%). Growth was particularly pronounced in information and communication and was driven primarily by higher sales of computer services on the domestic market. Relatively high turnover growth was also recorded in professional and technical activities. In the first nine months of the year, overall turnover growth in service activities was modest on a year-on-year basis (0.6%). In the same period, year-on-year real growth in turnover was also modest in most trade sectors, with the exception of the sale of motor vehicles, where turnover increased again on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter. The economic sentiment indicator strengthened further in November and, for the first time in three years, rose above its long-term average. 

Real exports and imports of goods decreased month-on-month in October, while in the first ten months exports were slightly lower and imports somewhat higher than in the same period last year. Goods exports decreased month-on-month for the third consecutive month (–0.2%, seasonally adjusted), particularly to EU countries (Germany, Italy, Austria, France), while exports to non-EU markets increased. Exports of metals and metal products declined markedly again, and exports of machinery and equipment also edged down, with the exception of road vehicles. By contrast, exports of pharmaceutical products and other chemical products strengthened. Imports decreased (1.7%, seasonally adjusted). Imports of intermediate goods rose, although they have exhibited pronounced volatility in recent months. Imports of consumer goods and of capital goods were lower month-on-month. In the first ten months, total goods exports remained roughly unchanged year-on-year (–0.1%), while imports were 0.7% higher. 
Export orders in manufacturing, similarly to the past two years, remained at a very low level in November. Given the continued uncertain economic conditions in Slovenia’s main trading partners and subdued foreign demand growth, this does not indicate a faster recovery of exports in the coming months.

In October, real exports of services declined on a month-on-month basis, while imports increased; both, however, were higher year-on-year. Following strong growth in September, the month-on-month decrease in real services exports in October (–4.0%) was driven primarily by a contraction in exports of other business services. We estimate that the pronounced volatility observed in this segment over the past two months was largely related to exports of engineering services to Croatia. Exports of services also declined in some other important categories: exports of transport services (excluding electricity transmission) decreased in October for the second consecutive month, and exports of ICT services were also lower. Exports of tourism-related services remained largely unchanged compared to previous months. Imports of services, however, increased again on a current basis in October (4.1%), more noticeably in some smaller groups of other services (insurance services, personal, cultural and recreational services, and government-related services, all seasonally adjusted).
In the first ten months of the year, both exports and imports of services were higher than in the same period last year (by 3.2% and 4.5%, respectively). During this period, exports and imports of transport and construction services remained lower year-on-year, and imports of tourism-related services were also lower. During this period, Slovenia exported approximately three quarters of its services to EU Member States, with Germany (12.6%), Austria (11.7%) and Italy (9.5%) being the most important destinations.
 

Manufacturing output remained unchanged month-on-month in October; over the first ten months of the year, it was 1.1% lower year-on-year. Following growth in the third quarter, output increased month-on-month in October in high-technology and medium-low-technology industries. By contrast, output in medium-high-technology and low-technology industries declined or remained unchanged (seasonally adjusted). In the first ten months of the year, manufacturing production was down 1.1% year-on-year (working-day adjusted). Output in both high-technology industries exceeded last year’s levels, as did output in several less technology-intensive industries (manufacture of food products, manufacture of textiles, wood industry, and other manufacturing). Among medium-high-technology industries, only output in the energy-intensive chemical industry was slightly higher year-on-year. The largest year-on-year decline in the first ten months of the year (in addition to the leather industry) was recorded in the manufacture of other transport equipment (by around one tenth), although production in recent months has nonetheless exceeded year-earlier levels, and in the manufacture of fabricated metal products (by 6%).
In October, expectations regarding future production in manufacturing continued to improve, while the volume of new orders remained subdued.

In October, the value of construction work put in place continued to strengthen markedly. Following a decline in the first quarter, construction activity strengthened over the remainder of the year. In October, it further increased by 6% month-on-month and was 36% higher than in October last year. In the first ten months of the year, the total value of construction put in place was 10% higher than in the same period last year. The values of all types of construction works increased, in particular in the construction of non-residential buildings (16%) and specialised construction activities (15%); growth was also higher in civil engineering (7%), while it remained modest in the construction of residential buildings (1%). 
However, some other data suggest lower growth in construction activity. According to VAT data, the activity of construction companies in October was 18% higher than in the same month last year. The difference in activity growth compared with the data on the value of construction work put in place amounted to 18 p.p. Similarly, data on the value of industrial production in the manufacture of non-metallic mineral products, which is traditionally strongly linked to construction, do not indicate such high growth: in October, it was only 1% higher than in October last year.

Turnover in most trade sectors declined in the third quarter compared with the second (seasonally adjusted). In wholesale trade, turnover contracted for the second consecutive quarter and, for the first time since the beginning of 2024, was also lower year-on-year. Turnover in retail trade with food products also declined year-on-year, having recorded weak growth in the second quarter and a decline in the third. Turnover in retail trade with non-food products remained broadly unchanged relative to the second quarter (when it had increased) and was higher year-on-year. In the sale of motor vehicles, relatively strong turnover growth persisted. Across all trade sectors, sales were higher year-on-year in the first nine months of the year. Growth in the sales of motor vehicles was robust (7%), while in other trade sectors it was modest (averaging around 1%).

Total real turnover in market services increased sharply in the third quarter compared with the second (by 2.8%, seasonally adjusted) and also strengthened year-on-year (by 2.5%). Following growth in the first half of the year, turnover increased markedly in current terms in information and communication. Growth stemmed primarily from higher sales of computer services on the domestic market. Relatively strong turnover growth was also recorded in professional and technical activities, where turnover had declined in the first half of the year. After two quarters of decline, turnover in transportation and storage also increased slightly, in both main activities – land transport and storage. Accommodation and food service turnover rose somewhat for the second consecutive quarter. In administrative and support service activities, the stagnation in turnover observed in the first half of the year persisted, primarily due to the continued contraction of turnover in employment services. In the first nine months of 2025, administrative and support service activities was the only activity with a year-on-year decrease in real turnover.

Year-on-year household consumption growth lags well behind growth in compensation of employees and social transfers this year; the increase in household deposits is high. Year-on-year real growth in household consumption slowed to 1% in the third quarter (from 2.2%). Year-on-year, households increased their spending on durable goods (primarily cars), semi-durable goods and services, while expenditure on non-durable goods declined. In nominal terms, private consumption growth (2.9%) in the third quarter – mirroring developments in the first three quarters overall – was roughly half as strong as the growth in compensation of employees and social transfers, which together constitute the bulk of households’ gross disposable income. Therefore we estimate that the saving rate will increase again this year, following last year’s decline, when it fell to 13.3%, the lowest level since 2017. At the end of September, the stock of household deposits in banks, which account for the majority of household savings, was 5.4% higher year-on-year, an increase of almost EUR 1.5 billion, representing the strongest growth since 2021. 

The November data indicate a year-on-year decrease in electricity consumption in industry. With the same number of working days, consumption in November was 2.4% lower than in the same month last year. By contrast, household electricity consumption increased by 2.2% year-on-year.

The value of the economic sentiment indicator improved in November for the fifth consecutive month and was also higher year-on-year. The values of the consumer and construction confidence indicators increased month-on-month, the confidence indicator in manufacturing stagnated, while the indicators in retail trade and in services declined slightly. The same applies to the year-on-year comparison. The economic sentiment indicator exceeded its long-term average for the second consecutive month (after nearly three years). Among individual sectors, only the confidence indicators in construction and in services are currently above their respective long-term averages. 

The number of persons in employment remained similar in October to previous months (seasonally adjusted) and was 0.4% lower year-on-year. The number of employees was lower year-on-year (–0.6%), while the number of self-employed increased (1.4%). The sharpest year-on-year decline in the number of persons in employment was recorded in administrative and support service activities (–3.6%), mainly due to a decrease in employment agencies, followed by manufacturing (–2.3%), and information and communication (–1.2%). The number of persons in employment continued to increase on a year-on-year basis in public service activities, particularly in human health and social work activities (up 3.4%). The number of foreign citizens in employment increased by 1.5% year-on-year in October, while the number of Slovenian nationals in employment declined by 0.7%. 
In the first ten months, the number of employed persons remained 0.4% lower year-on-year.

The number of registered unemployed persons decreased slightly in November on a monthly basis (–0.2%, seasonally adjusted) after rising over the preceding four months, while remaining slightly higher year-on-year (0.2%). The increase in the preceding months can be associated with the larger inflow of foreign nationals with temporary protection status into the unemployment register since July this year, which in November no longer made a significant contribution to the inflow into unemployment. The year-on-year decline in the long-term unemployed (–6.9%) and in unemployed persons aged over 50 (–7.6%) was similar to previous months. The number of unemployed young persons (15–29 years) has been exceeding last year’s levels since the end of last year (in November it was 9.3% higher year-on-year).

According to survey data, the number of unemployed declined year-on-year in the third quarter, while the number of persons in employment increased. According to survey data, 44 thousand persons were unemployed, which is 4.3% less than in the third quarter of last year. The survey unemployment rate (4.2%) fell year-on-year (by 0.2 p.p.). The number of persons in employment was higher year-on-year in the third quarter (1.2%), mainly as a result of transitions out of inactivity. Compared with a year earlier, the number of employees in employment relationship and student workers increased, while the number of self-employed persons and employees engaged in certain other forms of work (contract work, work for direct payment, apprentices) as well as unpaid family workers declined.

Year-on-year nominal growth in the average gross wage was higher in September (7%) than in the preceding two months. Wage growth in the public sector, which was robust at the beginning of the year, moderated in July and August before strengthening again in September (reaching 9%). The higher growth is largely the result of wage increases in education, which, in our assessment, is related to payments of supplements for teaching time and pedagogical obligations. Growth in the private sector also remains relatively strong (5.8 %) amid still considerable labour shortages. 
In the first nine months, the overall average gross wage increased by 4.5% in real terms (by 6.9% in nominal terms) – by 7.1% in the public sector and by 2.9% in the private sector (by 9.6% and 5.3% in nominal terms respectively). 

Consumer prices remained unchanged at the monthly level in November for the second consecutive month, while the year-on-year increase slowed to 2.3% (from 3.1% in October). The lower year-on-year inflation since June, was driven primarily by a slower increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, where the year-on-year growth declined from 6.8% in October to 5.0% (the lowest since March this year), amid a 0.9% month-on-month decrease. Prices in this group therefore no longer record the fastest growth among all 12 CPI groups, but they still contribute the most (0.9 p.p.) to inflation. Prices in the health group recorded a higher year-on-year increase this time (5.1%). Prices of semi-durable goods remained unchanged year-on-year. Following modest growth over the past five months (ranging between 0.1% and 0.6%), prices of durable goods were again lower year-on-year in November (by 0.4%). Year-on-year growth in service prices (2.7%) remained largely unchanged.

Slovenian industrial producer prices edged up slightly on a monthly basis in October (0.1%), while year-on-year growth almost doubled due to the lower base. Year-on-year price growth on the domestic market (1.7%) was higher than price growth on foreign markets (0.9%). This was mainly the result of modest (0.6%) price growth on euro area markets, while price growth on non-euro area markets is comparable to that on the domestic market. Among main industrial groups, consumer goods continued to record the highest year-on-year growth (3.8%), largely driven by rising prices of non-durable consumer goods (4.4%), within which price growth strengthened in the manufacture of food products (5.5%) and beverages (5.8%). Price growth in the intermediate goods category remained moderate (0.5%), while prices of energy and capital goods were lower year-on-year (by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively).

Year-on-year growth in the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors increased to 6.4% in October. Whereas in September, the year-on-year growth was largely driven by a higher base, this time it primarily reflected relatively strong lending activity. The loan volume rose by 1.1% on a monthly basis, which – excluding September 2024 – represents the highest monthly increase in the past three years. The largest contribution to year-on-year growth came from the increase in loans to households, with housing loans continuing to strengthen gradually. Housing loans were 7.8% higher year-on-year, while the growth of consumer loans has been easing, but at 10.4% it remains relatively high. The year-on-year growth of non-banking sector deposits, at 6.1%, was close to the growth in the volume of loans to non-banking sectors, while the loans-to-deposits ratio remained slightly above 0.70. The share of non-performing exposures increased slightly in September (to 1.2%), but remains low. This rise is largely attributable to deteriorating asset quality in manufacturing, where the share of non-performing exposures has increased by nearly two-thirds this year, reaching 3.9%.

The 12-month current account surplus (until October) decreased by EUR 545,5 million compared to the previous 12-month period, amounting to EUR 2.7 billion (3.8% of estimated GDP). This change was driven by the secondary income balance and the goods trade balance. The higher secondary income deficit resulted from lower receipts of the general government sector from the EU budget and higher net transfers paid by the private sector to the rest of the world. The lower goods surplus was influenced by a smaller trade surplus with non-EU countries and a higher trade deficit with EU Member States. The services surplus increased slightly, mainly in trade in travel and transportation services. The primary income deficit narrowed, mostly due to lower net outflows of income from equity capital (dividends and profits). Net inflows of compensation of employees also increased, reflecting stronger growth in the earnings of Slovenians working abroad rose compared with the earnings of foreign workers employed in Slovenia.

The deficit of the consolidated general government balance amounted to EUR 1 billion in the first ten months of this year, which is EUR 453 million more than last year, in line with the planned increase. In the first ten months, revenues increased by 5.7%, which is significantly less than in the same period last year (10.6%). This year’s slowdown reflects cyclical factors and last year’s measures that temporarily boosted social-security contributions and certain tax revenues. Expenditure in the first ten months of this year was 7.5% higher year-on-year, representing slightly lower growth than in the same period last year (8.8%). The main drivers of expenditure growth in 2025 are employee compensation related to the implementation of the wage reform, pensions, and certain other transfers. After declining last year, capital expenditure is also increasing this year, particularly for the purchase of military equipment. The bulk of the consolidated general government deficit stems from the central government budget deficit. In the first ten months of this year, the central government deficit amounted to EUR 910 million and, according to preliminary data, widened slightly in the first eleven months (EUR 976 million). By the end of the year, the deficit is expected to increase further, as planned, mainly due to higher expenditure related to the second tranche of payments under the public sector wage reform, the payment of the winter bonus to public employees and pensioners, and a strengthening of investment spending.

Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first 11 months of 2025 (at EUR 107.9 million). In this period, Slovenia received EUR 766.9 million from the EU budget (54.9% of receipts envisaged in the adopted state budget for 2025) and paid EUR 659.1 million into it (90.1% of planned annual payments). Of all revenues from the EU budget, by November 2025 the state budget had received the largest share for the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (33.9% of total reimbursements to the state budget and 58.9% of those planned under the adopted budget) and for the implementation of the common agricultural and fisheries policy (33.9% of total reimbursements to the state budget and 79.3% of reimbursements expected in 2025). From centralised and other programmes, where resources from the Solidarity Fund prevail, 14.8% of total reimbursements were refunded to the state budget (62.8% of those planned in the adopted budget), while 10.4% of total reimbursements were received from the Structural Funds (23.5% of the planned reimbursements in 2025). In November 2025, Slovenia received EUR 440 million on the basis of the fourth payment request under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. In December, the European Commission also approved the fourth amendment to the Recovery and Resilience Plan, which provides for adjustments to certain milestones and targets, a reduction in their number, and a simplification of the activities required for their fulfilment. According to the Information on the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (December 2025), the submission of the fifth payment request to the European Commission is planned for this year, with two additional requests envisaged in 2026.