Activity in most sectors was higher in the first nine to ten months than in the same period last year. Real exports and imports of goods decreased month-on-month in October but remained higher year-on-year on average in the first ten months (exports by 3.3% and imports by 3.2%). After further contraction in the third quarter, manufacturing output recovered month-on-month in October and was also higher year-on-year in most sectors. It was up 1.2% year-on-year over the first 10 months (working day adjusted). Real turnover in all trade sectors rose quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, while real turnover in market services fell. Both were higher year-on-year. In the first nine months, turnover in trade increased year-on-year in all sectors, while in market services, it rose in most segments, with the exception of transportation and storage and professional and technical activities. Construction activity rose slightly in October but remained significantly lower year-on-year, by 11% in the first ten months.

Electricity consumption in the distribution network was 2.5% higher year-on-year in November. Industrial consumption rose by 4.7% year-on-year, partly due to a low base effect from last year related to holiday shutdowns following 1 November (which fell midweek). Small business consumption was 1.2% higher year-on-year in November, while household consumption was slightly lower year-on-year (by 0.9%).

In November, which had one less working day compared to the same month last year, the nominal value of fiscally verified invoices increased by 2% year-on-year, similar to the growth observed in October. Year-on-year growth in the value halved in trade (to 1%), while it doubled in tourism-related services (to 8%). Growth in retail trade, which accounted for half of the total value of fiscally verified invoices, halved to 2%. Year-on-year growth in the nominal value of fiscally verified invoices in the sales of motor vehicles (3%) was also significantly lower than in October, while the value in wholesale trade remained lower than last year (-7%). Year-on-year value growth in arts, entertainment and recreation increased in November and, amid favourable weather conditions, growth in accommodation and food service activities more than doubled (to 9%), mainly due to strong growth in accommodation (18%).

Real exports and imports of goods decreased month-on-month in October but remained higher year-on-year in the first ten months. Exports of goods have fallen month-on-month for the third month in a row; amid weak sentiment in industry among Slovenia’s main trading partners, exports to EU countries in particular have declined (seasonally adjusted). Exports of road vehicles saw a sharp decline, reaching their lowest level since the end of 2022. Exports of some other main product groups (e.g. metals and metal products, pharmaceuticals, and other chemical products) also declined. Imports decreased even more sharply than exports in October, especially of intermediate goods (seasonally adjusted).
In the first ten months, total goods exports increased by 3.3% year-on-year, while imports grew by 3.2%. Year-on-year, export growth was stronger with EU countries (EU 3.6%, non-EU 2.1%), while import growth was more pronounced from non-EU countries (EU 1.7%, non-EU 5.4%). 
Sentiment in export-oriented manufacturing activities and export expectations remained at very low levels in November.

In October, exports of services were higher both month-on-month and year-on-year, while imports declined. The month-on-month increase in real exports of services in October was primarily driven by exports of administrative and support service activities 
(which fluctuate strongly on a monthly basis) and ICT services, while exports of tourism-related services remained steady at the levels observed in previous months. Exports of transport services fell slightly again, following an increase in September. Imports of most main groups of services fell compared to the previous month, with only imports of tourism-related services (seasonally adjusted) increasing slightly.
Exports of services were down year-on-year in the first ten months, but this decline has slowed in recent months. Exports of construction services in particular were significantly lower than in the same period last year, while exports of transport and tourism-related services also fell slightly. Imports of services remained higher in this period than a year ago.

After a further contraction in the third quarter, manufacturing output increased in October (seasonally adjusted); in the first 10 months, it rose by 1.2% year-on-year (working day adjusted). Following a contraction in the third quarter, the strongest increase in production volume was observed in high- and low-technology industries. Production in medium-low-technology industries continued to rise, while medium-high-technology industries experienced a contraction after stagnating in the third quarter (all seasonally adjusted). In most sectors, production increased year-on-year in October. In the first ten months, manufacturing output was on average 1.2% higher than in the same period last year (working day adjusted). Growth exceeded the average growth in manufacturing in most energy-intensive industries (except for the construction-related manufacture of non-metallic mineral products) and in the manufacture of electrical equipment. Growth in other medium-high-technology industries (manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c, manufacture of motor vehicles and other transport equipment) declined year-on-year (by around 2.3%). The low-technology wood and furniture industry and the leather industry fell most significantly below the previous year’s level (by more than 10%).

According to data on the value of construction work put in place, construction activity remained lower year-on-year in October. After last year’s robust growth of construction activity, the value of construction put in place this year has fallen sharply. In October, it was 13% lower year-on-year, and in the first ten months combined, it was down by 11%. In this comparison, the most significant declines were seen in civil engineering (down 14%) and construction of buildings (down 13%), while the smallest decline occurred in specialised construction activities (down 6%).
This lower activity was partly related to government investment activity. According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts, capital expenditure fell by 6% in the first ten months of the year, and expenditure on new construction, reconstruction and renovation, which we consider to be most closely linked to construction activity, was 23% lower.

In the third quarter, real turnover increased in all trade sectors and was also higher year-on-year. The sales of motor vehicles saw a strong quarter-on-quarter recovery in the third quarter, following a decline in the first half of the year, and rose by 8% year-on-year in the first nine months. Turnover in wholesale trade continued to grow and rose by 2% year-on-year in the first nine months. After stagnating in the first half of the year, turnover in the third quarter increased also in retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco and in retail sales of non-food products, with both sectors recording an increase of 1% year-on-year in the first nine months. Among non-food products, after robust growth in 2021 and 2022, sales of pharmaceuticals and medical products declined for the second year in a row, while sales of household appliances and audio and video equipment increased by a good one-tenth year-on-year in the first nine months. According to preliminary data from SURS, turnover in the sales of motor vehicles and in the retail sales of food continued to increase month-on-month in October, while turnover decreased in the retail sales of non-food products.

Total real turnover in market services declined quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter (by 0.3%, seasonally adjusted), though it remained higher year-on-year (by 1.6%). The decline was most pronounced in information and communication, which is attributable to declines in telecommunications and computer services. Turnover also continued to decline in professional and technical activities, although at a significantly slower pace than in the previous quarter. Turnover also declined in administrative and support service activities, with the negative trends in employment and travel agencies continuing. After stagnating in the first half of the year, turnover in accommodation and food service activities rebounded strongly, mainly due to growth in accommodation, with an increase in the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists. After a long period of contraction, turnover in transportation and storage also increased. In the first nine months, real turnover decreased year-on-year in transportation and storage and professional and technical activities.

The available data indicate a year-on-year increase in household consumption at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Growth in passenger car sales continued, with turnover in motor vehicle sales rising by 13% year-on-year in October. In October, spending also increased year-on-year on food, beverages and tobacco products (turnover was 4% higher in real terms) and on non-food products (turnover was 2% higher). Spending on tourism services in Slovenia and abroad was also higher year-on-year. 

The value of the economic sentiment indicator increased month-on-month in November and remained higher year-on-year. The monthly improvement was driven by all indicators except for the indicator among consumers. After more than a year of improvement, this indicator has declined since September, with consumer expectations for major purchases in particular deteriorating in November. Compared to November last year, only the sentiment indicator in construction declined. The economic sentiment indicator has been below its long-term average for almost two years, mainly due to the low value of the confidence indicator in manufacturing.

In September, the number of persons in employment remained unchanged (seasonally adjusted). Their number has shown little variation since mid-2023 (except for a methodological impact at the beginning of this year), with growth varying across activity groups. Public services experienced continued growth in the number of persons in employment in September, with the largest increases in healthcare and education. The number also increased in construction, which still faces a shortage of skilled labour despite lower activity in the sector. Meanwhile, the number of persons in employment in manufacturing has gradually declined since mid-2023, while it has stagnated in market services since October 2023. Year-on-year, the overall number of persons in employment grew by 1.2% in September, consistent with the growth observed in previous months.  Among those in employment, the number of foreign workers continues to rise, whereas the number of Slovenian workers is declining very slowly. The share of foreign citizens among all persons in employment was 15.9% in September, 1.2 p.p. higher than a year earlier. The activities with the highest shares of foreign workers were construction (50%), transportation and storage (34%), and administrative and support service activities (28%). 

In November, the number of unemployed persons (seasonally adjusted) remained similar to the previous months. According to original data, 45,709 people were unemployed at the end of November, 0.5% more than at the end of October. Year-on-year, the number of unemployed was 3.1% lower in November, marking a smaller decrease compared to previous months. This was mainly driven by a year-on-year increase in the inflow of unemployed persons attributed to redundancies and bankruptcies in the last two months (in the third quarter, the rise in unemployment was linked to a higher year-on-year inflow of first-time jobseekers). Amid ongoing labour shortages and the retirement of older employees, the numbers of long-term unemployed (those unemployed for more than one year) and of unemployed over 55 fell year-on-year at the end of November, by 12.2% and 9.6% respectively. By contrast, the number of unemployed young people (aged 15–29) increased slightly year-on-year for the second month in a row. 

According to survey data, the number of persons in employment remained largely unchanged year-on-year in the third quarter, while the number of unemployed increased, mainly due to increased inflow of young people transitioning from inactivity (education) into the labour market. Among persons in employment, the number of employees in labour relation decreased year-on-year, while the number of employees in other forms of work, in particular the self-employed and unpaid family workers, increased, keeping the total number of persons in employment largely unchanged year-on-year. The number of unemployed, which rose for the second consecutive quarter, increased year-on-year. Compared to the same period last year, the number of young people transitioning from education into the labour market was higher, amid modest growth in economic activity and somewhat lower demand for labour. As a result, the survey unemployment rate in the third quarter (4.4%) was 0.5 p.p. higher year-on-year.

In September, the year-on-year real growth in the average wage remained relatively high (5.5%). In the public sector, wage growth accelerated slightly (4%), which, in addition to the increase in the value of the pay scale grades in June, was also due to the relatively low base from last year. In the private sector, year-on-year wage growth in September (6.3%) was higher in real terms than on average in the first eight months. This was primarily due to lower year-on-year inflation amid continued strong upward pressure on (nominal) wage growth stemming from a shortage of labour. In the first nine months, overall average gross wage rose by 6.5% year-on-year in nominal terms, with increases of 7.6% in the public sector and 4.3% in the private sector. These increases, however, were lower in both sectors compared to the same period last year.

After a decline in October, annual inflation rose in November (to 1.7%). The expected increase was largely driven by the base effect related the full exemption from the RES and CHP contribution in November last year. In addition, with the transition to the peak season for network charges this November, electricity prices increased by 16.8% month-on-month and by 11.2% year-on-year (compared to a 22.7% year-on-year decrease in October). Prices in the housing, water, electricity, and gas and other fuels group were slightly higher year-on-year in November (by 0.1%; they were 8.6% lower year-on-year in October). Their contribution to year-on-year inflation increased by 1.1 p.p. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased month-on-month (by 0.8%) and rose by 2.3% year-on-year, and petroleum products also contributed to higher inflation in November. The year-on-year rise in prices of semi-durable goods increased again (to 3%), amid a slightly stronger seasonal price growth in the clothing and footwear group. Prices of durable goods remained around 1% lower year-on-year. Year-on-year growth in services prices declined (to 2.8%; 3.2% in October), which in our estimation was due to the slowdown in price growth in the communication and recreation and culture groups. Year-on-year HICP price growth in Slovenia was 1.6% in November, compared to 2.3% in the euro area. 

Slovenian industrial producer prices continued to decline year-on-year in October, falling by 1.3%. This drop was primarily driven by lower prices of energy (-6.2% month-on-month, -15% year-on-year) and intermediate goods (-0.3% month-on-month, -1.3% year-on-year). Meanwhile, the prices of capital goods remained largely unchanged year-on-year (+0.1%), and the year-on-year growth in consumer goods prices has held steady since July (1%). Among consumer goods, prices of non-durable goods rose by 1.9%, whereas prices of durable goods fell by 2.1%. On the domestic market, prices decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in October, while the decline in prices on foreign markets was less pronounced (-0.2%).

The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors increased year-on-year in October (by 4.6%). The main contribution to growth (3.1 p.p.) was the almost three-quarter increase in NFI loans, rising by almost 60% month-on-month in September alone. Loans to households also contributed to growth, which remained roughly at the level achieved since mid-2024 (just under 6%). The high year-on-year growth in consumer loans is slowly weakening, while growth in housing loans is gradually accelerating but is still relatively subdued at 3.4%. Deleveraging of non-financial corporations continued in October. Their volume of loans from domestic banks fell by 4.3% or almost EUR 470 million in the last 12 months. Annual growth in deposits from the non-banking sector is around 2%, with household deposits growing at a similar rate. Against the backdrop of favourable capital market developments and relatively low interest rates on deposits, investments in mutual funds are increasing. In the first ten months of 2024, investments in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded a net inflow of close to EUR 430 million. The quality of banks’ assets remains solid, with the share of non-performing loans holding steady at 1% since April of last year.

The current account surplus in the last 12 months (until October) was significantly higher than in the previous 12-month period (by EUR 1.1 billion), reaching EUR 3.4 billion (5.1% of estimated GDP). The higher surplus was mainly attributable to the goods trade balance, as imports of goods fell, while exports of goods stagnated. The services surplus has also increased, particularly in trade in other services (mainly R&D services and technical, trade-related and other business services). Primary and secondary income also contributed to the improvement in the current account balance. The primary income deficit declined year-on-year, mainly due to lower net outflows of dividends and profits and higher net interest receipts from abroad, while the secondary income deficit declined due to higher government receipts from transfers from the EU budget and lower outflows of private sector transfers.

At EUR 483.1 million, the consolidated general government deficit in the first ten months of this year was approximately half that in the same period last year (846.6 million). Revenues in the first ten months were 10.6% higher year-on-year. The highest increases were in revenue from corporate income tax, mainly due to higher balancing payments of tax this year and the higher tax rate, and in non-tax revenue (profit sharing and property income as well as other non-tax revenue). Strong growth was also observed in revenue from personal income tax and, due to the transformation of complementary health insurance into a mandatory contribution, in revenue from social contributions, which accounted for the largest share of growth in general government revenue. The growth in VAT revenue slowed slightly, while revenue from excise duties stagnated despite higher excise duties on certain energy products and tobacco products, which is attributable to a decline in the quantities of energy products sold. Receipts from the EU budget were lower year-on-year. Expenditure in the first ten months was 8.4% higher year-on-year. The main contributors to growth were transfers to individuals and households, mainly due to the effect of high regular annual adjustment of pensions, and payments to budgetary funds. Expenditure on goods and services and expenditure on salaries and wages and other personnel expenditure also made a significant contribution to growth in general government expenditure. Investment expenditure was lower year-on-year. From August 2023 to the end of October 2024, EUR 904.6 million had been disbursed from the state budget to rectify the consequences of floods and landslides, of which EUR 316.5 million was disbursed in the first ten months of this year, most of it for ongoing maintenance on watercourses and subsidies to the economy.

Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first ten months of 2024 (at EUR 99.8 million). In this period, Slovenia received EUR 605.1 million from the EU budget (41.8% of receipts envisaged in the adopted state budget for 2024) and paid EUR 505.3 million into it (70.3% of planned payments). The bulk of receipts (35% of all reimbursements to the state budget, 57.6% of the planned reimbursements in 2024) were resources for the implementation of the common agricultural and fisheries policies and other receipts from the EU budget related to the payment of the third payment request from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (33.1% of all reimbursements to the state budget, 56.1% of the planned reimbursements in 2024). Resources from the Cohesion Fund accounted for 16.7% of total reimbursements to the state budget (100.4% of the planned reimbursements in 2024) and resources from the Structural Funds for 13.1% of all reimbursements (26.5% of the planned reimbursements in 2024). The highest payments into the EU budget came from GNI-based payments (50.7% of all payments). 

According to the MKRR data, under the Operational Programme for the Implementation of EU Cohesion Policy 2021–2027 (from January 2021 to the end of October 2024), payments from the state budget totalled EUR 53.4 million (EU share), representing 2% of the available funds.