The growth in activity observed in most sectors during the first quarter was interrupted in April/May, although it remained higher year-on-year for the first four or five months. Manufacturing output in the first five months was similar to the same period last year (0.2% higher), with considerable monthly fluctuations. Exports of goods, which also fell in May compared to April, were higher year-on-year in the first five months (by 1.0%), mainly due to growth in the EU countries. Imports of goods were also higher year-on-year (by 1.3%), especially from non-EU countries. After high growth at the beginning of last year, construction activity has gradually declined, with monthly fluctuations, and was lower year-on-year in the first five months. Real turnover in trade, which increased in April, was higher year-on-year in all trade segments in the first four months. Real turnover in services (excluding transportation and storage) also remained higher but declined slightly on average in April. 

Electricity consumption in the distribution network in June was lower year-on-year, partly due to fewer working days. With three fewer working days this June, industrial consumption was 4.5% lower year-on-year and small business consumption was 5.6% lower. The year-on-year decline in household consumption (by 1.2%) was less pronounced than in previous months. In June 2023, the reduced VAT rate on some energy products, which had contributed to a fall in household consumption, was abolished. As a result, the year-on-year base effect in June of this year was lower than in previous months.

In June, which had three fewer working days than the same month last year, the nominal value of fiscally verified invoices was 3% lower year-on-year, while it was 2% higher overall in the second quarter. Turnover in June was lower year-on-year for the first time this year, due to a 4% year-on-year turnover decline in trade, which accounted for three-quarters of the total value of fiscally verified invoices. Turnover in wholesale trade fell by 12% year-on-year and turnover in the sales of motor vehicles by 8%, while turnover in retail trade was similar to June last year. Year-on-year turnover growth in accommodation and food service activities, certain creative, arts, entertainment and sports services, and betting and gambling weakened significantly (overall growth in accommodation and food service activities and in other service activities was 4%, compared to 10% on average in the previous five months). 

Real exports and imports of goods declined month-on-month in May but were higher year-on-year in the first five months; sentiment in export-oriented activities remained at a very low level. Real exports fell by 3.5% in May, due to lower exports to EU countries (-4.7%), especially to some of Slovenia’s main trading partners (Germany, Italy, Austria and France). On a month-on-month basis, exports were down in most main product groups, most notably in passenger cars. Imports fell by 5.7%, with imports from both EU and non-EU countries declining. Imports of intermediate goods and capital goods declined markedly (all seasonally adjusted). In the first five months, exports and imports of goods were on average higher year-on-year (by 1.0% and 1.3% respectively according to original data). On the export side, especially exports to EU countries increased, while on the import side, imports from non-EU countries were higher. Sentiment in export-oriented activities deteriorated in June, with expectations for export orders falling to their lowest level this year.

Slovenia’s export market share in the EU market continued to increase year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 (by 6.1% according to preliminary estimates), returning to the pre-energy crisis levels. Following a decline in the previous two years, Slovenia’s export market share in the EU market recovered in 2023. In particular the year-on-year decline in EU goods imports, mostly of products that have a below-average share in the structure of Slovenia's exports (e.g. raw materials), characterised the trend at the beginning of 2024. Amid strong year-on-year growth in Slovenian exports, the market share of road vehicles has increased significantly, but it remains below the level of two years ago. The market share of pharmaceutical products, electrical machinery and equipment, and most energy-intensive product groups (chemical products, non-metallic mineral products and metals, including the paper industry, where the market share has been declining for several quarters) has also continued to increase. Among Slovenia’s most important trading partners, the strongest year-on-year increases in the country’s market share were recorded in France and Croatia.

Trade in services fell slightly in May but was higher year-on-year in the first five months of the year. The main reason for the decline in exports was the lower exports of administrative and support service activities, which fluctuate strongly from month to month. Exports of construction services also decreased. Exports of transport services remained at the same level as in previous months, while exports of tourism-related services increased significantly. In terms of imports, most of the main service groups remained at a similar level to previous months, with a slight decrease in imports of tourism-related services (seasonally adjusted). Both exports and imports of services were higher in the first five months than in the same period last year, mainly due to strong growth in trade in tourism-related services, ICT and construction services. Trade in transport and administrative and support service activities remains significantly lower than a year ago.

After a decline in March, manufacturing output increased significantly in April but then fell sharply again in May. Despite having the same number of working days as May last year, output was lower year-on-year. With strong monthly fluctuations in recent months, the production level in May remained above last year’s average. All industry groups according to technology intensity experienced strong monthly fluctuations. In May, production shrank in all groups and was lower year-on-year. In the first five months of this year, manufacturing output was similar to the same period last year (0.2% higher). It was only slightly higher on average in the medium-low-technology industries, where the energy-intensive manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products n.e.c. and the repair and installation of machinery and equipment were below the previous year's level. The production of machinery and equipment n.e.c., as well as some low-technology industries (wood and furniture, leather and textiles) were lower year-on-year. The energy-intensive chemical industry also saw a slight decrease.

According to data on the value of construction work put in place, construction activity remained largely unchanged in May, although it was lower year-on-year. After experiencing high growth at the beginning of last year, the value of construction work put in place gradually declined amid monthly fluctuations. In May this year, construction activity was 7% lower compared to the same month last year. The largest year-on-year decline was recorded in civil engineering (by 10%). Activity also decreased in the construction of buildings and specialised construction activities. 
This lower construction put in place is (partly) related to government investment activity. Capital expenditure (according to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts) was slightly higher in the first five months of this year compared to the same period last year (by 3% in nominal terms). Expenditure on new construction, reconstruction, and renovation was 24% lower.

In April, real turnover increased in most trade sectors and was also higher year-on-year. Turnover in the sales of motor vehicles was a good fifth higher year-on-year in April. After high growth last year, it declined month-on-month in the first quarter. In the first four months, it was more than a tenth higher year-on-year. In April, turnover in wholesale trade rose by just over a tenth compared to the previous year and by 1% in the first four months. Turnovers in the retail sales of non-food and food products were also up year-on-year in the first four months (by 1% and 3% respectively). According to preliminary SURS data, turnover fell in most sectors in May and was also down year-on-year in the retail sales of non-food products, while it continued to rise year-on-year in the retail sales of food products and sales of motor vehicles.

In April, total real turnover in market services fell (by 0.6%), though it remained 6.8% higher year-on-year in real terms. Following relatively high growth in March, the sharpest fall in turnover was recorded in professional and technical activities, with the deepening of turnover decline in architectural and engineering services. A slightly smaller decline in turnover was observed in administrative and support service activities, with a further contraction in employment services. Turnover in accommodation and food service activities fell for the fourth month in a row. In addition, the decline in turnover in real estate activities contributed to the overall turnover decline in market services. However, turnover in transportation and storage increased slightly, primarily due to growth in warehousing and support activities for transportation. In information and communication, turnover growth accelerated due to higher sales in telecommunication services. In the first four months, real turnover was down year-on-year only in transportation and storage.

The volume of road freight transport increased slightly again in the first quarter of 2024, while the volume of transport by rail declined. The increase in the volume of road transport performed by Slovenian vehicles (by 3%) was mainly due to the growth in cross-trade, which increased by almost 9%, while road traffic performed at least partially on Slovenian territory (exports, imports and national transport) fell slightly. The volume of road goods transport fell by 8% year-on-year and was still slightly more than 1% lower compared to the first quarter of 2019. Despite a slight improvement, the share of cross-trade in total transport (about 43%) is still a few percentage points below the pre-COVID-19 levels. Rail freight transport, which had increased sharply at the end of last year, fell in the first quarter of 2024 (by 6%) and was 3% lower year-on-year and almost 18% lower compared to the same quarter of 2019.

The available data indicate that household consumption increased year-on-year at the beginning of the second quarter. Sales of new passenger cars used by natural persons were 16% higher year-on-year in April and turnover from the sales of motor vehicles was on average one-tenth higher in real terms in April and May. Spending on tourism services abroad was higher year-on-year in April (by 7% in nominal terms), while spending on non-food products and food, beverages and tobacco also rose on average in April and May (by 1% in real terms). The number of overnight stays by domestic tourists in Slovenia was slightly lower in April and May than a year ago.

Amid a further decline in the volume of sales, the year-on-year growth in dwelling prices moderated slightly in the first quarter. After price growth halved last year (to 7.2% on average), prices were 6.3% higher compared to the first quarter of 2023 and 1.2% higher compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Prices of existing dwellings, where the number of transactions fell by almost a quarter year-on-year and reached their lowest level since the third quarter of 2013, rose by 6.9% year-on-year. Prices of newly built dwellings were also higher year-on-year (by 8.7%), though 7.6% lower than in the last quarter of last year. The number of their transactions, although only a small part of total sales (8%), also fell sharply year-on-year (by a third), after their number was relatively high in 2023 (according to the revised data).

The economic sentiment indicator improved slightly in June and remained higher year-on-year. The improvement compared to the previous month was due to improvements in the confidence indicators in retail trade and among consumers, which have improved the most since the beginning of the year. The confidence indicators in construction and services deteriorated, while the confidence indicator in manufacturing remained unchanged. With the exception of the confidence indicator in construction, which has deteriorated the most since the start of the year, all confidence indicators contributed to the year-on-year increase in the economic sentiment indicator in June.

The financial situation of households improved on average in the second quarter, though it remained similar to the same period of 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the share of households from the lowest-income quartile facing financial distress decreased slightly (by 0.3 p.p.; by 0.6 p.p. year-on-year, reaching 11.9%). According to our estimate, this was partly due to the increase in the minimum wage, continued gradual slowdown in inflation and positive developments on the labour market (higher employment and wages). The share of households facing financial distress having to draw on savings to meet their needs declined year-on-year, while the share of households running into debt increased, partly due to the relaxation of the Bank of Slovenia's requirements for obtaining consumer loans.

The number of persons in employment continued to rise year-on-year in April. Growth was similar (1.4%) to the first three months of this year and higher than in the last months of 2023. The acceleration of growth at the beginning of the year was mainly due to a change in the definition of persons in employment, which now also includes workers posted abroad. In April, growth in the number of persons in employment was still the highest in construction, which faces major labour shortages. The year-on-year increase in the total number of persons in employment in April was due to a higher number of employed foreign nationals, while the number of employed Slovenian citizens fell slightly. The share of foreign citizens among all persons in employment was 15.7% in April, 1.4 p.p. higher than a year earlier. Notably, the activities with the largest shares of foreign workers were construction (50%), transportation and storage (33%) and administrative and support service activities (29%).

The monthly decline in the seasonally adjusted number of registered unemployed in June (0.3%) was slightly less pronounced than in previous months. According to original data, 43,369 people were unemployed at the end of June, 6.1% fewer than a year ago. Amid labour shortages, the number of long-term unemployed (more than one year) and the number of unemployed over 50 fell year-on-year at the end of June, by 13.9% and 9.1% respectively. In the first half of the year, just over 1% of the unemployed moved to inactivity or retirement each month, also contributing to the decline in unemployment.

Since April, the calculation of data on earnings uses a new data source; the year-on-year growth in the average gross wage was slightly higher (3.4%) than in March. With slightly lower inflation, this was mainly due to the relatively high growth in the private sector (5.7%). The highest growth was recorded in construction and administrative and support service activities. In the public sector, the average gross wage fell by 0.8% year-on-year in real terms, which is linked to last year's base (the wage increase in April 2023). In the first four months, overall average gross wage increased by 7% in nominal terms – by 8.2% in the public sector and by 4.9% in the private sector.
SURS now uses data from the REK-O form, which differs from the old ZAP/M form by the different reporting of extra payments and overdue payments. The monthly gross wage differences between the two sources are between -2.2% and +2.0%, with the exception of December 2023, where the data from the new source was 14.9% higher. Consequently, growth rates also differ slightly. As the raw data according to the new methodology is published for the last 15 months, the calculation of the year-on-year growth and then the 3-month moving average means that the series shown only overlap by one month.

In May, the number of financial social assistance (FSA) beneficiaries fell year-on-year, while the number of unemployment benefit (UB) recipients increased slightly. Amid a fall in the number of long-term unemployed, who are often eligible for FSA, the number of FSA beneficiaries continued to fall year-on-year. In May, 73,378 people were eligible for FSA (original data), which is 4.7% less than a year ago. The number of UB recipients was 13,347 in May (orig. figure), up by 4.6% year-on-year. This is mainly due to a slightly higher inflow of persons who are eligible for UB into unemployment. Despite this, the number of UB recipients was significantly above the long-term average.

Year-on-year price growth weakened rapidly in June, reaching its lowest level in three years (1.5%). This was partly due to a further weakening of upward price pressure, but to a greater extent also to the high base of last June, when the reduced VAT rate on some energy products was abolished. This also had an impact on the year-on-year fall in the prices of housing, water, electricity, and gas and other fuels (-2.3%), whereas prices in this group had still risen by around 3% year-on-year in May. The price increase for goods in particular is weakening and was only 0.2% year-on-year in June. Non-durable goods prices went up by 0.3% and semi-durable goods prices by 1.5%, while durable goods prices dropped by 1.4%. The slowdown in services prices has been interrupted in recent months, though their year-on-year growth was still above 4%. The strongest price increase (6.7%) was observed in the restaurants and hotels group, which in our assessment is still the consequence of labour shortage and the associated upward pressure on wages, but also to a certain extent to the relatively high demand.

Slovenian industrial producer prices remained unchanged in May, with the year-on-year decline continuing to slow slightly (-2.4%). The slowdown in the year-on-year decline in May was mainly due to a deceleration in the decline of prices in the intermediate goods group (-4.3%), which was attributable to both a higher base and monthly growth of 0.6%. Energy prices were 11% lower year-on-year, mainly due to lower prices in electricity, gas and steam supply (-15.8%). Price growth for capital goods remained at around 0.5% year-on-year, while prices of consumer goods continued to rise by around 1%. Industrial producer prices on the domestic market were 3.0% lower year-on-year. The decline on foreign markets was 1.8%.

The year-on-year growth in the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors remained around 1.0% in May. The volume of corporate and NFI loans continued to decline year-on-year (-3.6%). Growth in household loans picked up slightly (by 5.3% year-on-year). Around two-thirds of the increase can be attributed to stronger household borrowing in the form of consumer loans, which rose by 16.2% year-on-year. In addition to the lowering of the threshold for creditworthiness and solid household spending, the high growth was also driven by banks' increased commercial interest in this type of lending, with interest rates on consumer loans being among the highest of all lending transactions. Year-on-year growth in housing loans increased for the fourth month in a row but remained subdued (1.9%). The year-on-year growth in non-banking sector deposits further moderated slightly in May (2.7%). The volume of term deposits increased by slightly more than one-third year-on-year. The volume of overnight deposits fell by 3.5%, still accounting for more than three-quarters of non-banking sector deposits. The quality of banks’ assets remains solid, with the share of non-performing loans unchanged at 1% in April.

Yields to maturity of euro area government bonds rose slightly in the second quarter. In this period, the yield to maturity of the Slovenian government bond increased by 12 basis points, to 3.28%, compared to the previous quarter. The spread to the German bond narrowed slightly, reaching 78 basis points, the lowest level since the beginning of 2022.

The 12-month current account surplus increased compared to the previous 12-month period, reaching EUR 2.9 billion (4.3% of estimated GDP). The main reason for the year-on-year higher surplus was the goods trade surplus, as imports of goods have fallen more sharply than exports. Services surplus in the last 12 months was lower year-on-year, due to deterioration in the balance of trade in travel services. Expenditure of Slovenian tourists abroad has increased much more (by EUR 0.5 billion) than the income from foreign tourists travelling to Slovenia (by EUR 0.2 billion). Net outflows of primary and secondary income were lower year-on-year. The primary income deficit decreased mainly due to higher net interest receipts by the Bank of Slovenia from deposits in foreign accounts. The secondary income deficit decreased due to higher net positive transfers to the government sector from abroad (funds for current international cooperation from the EU budget) and higher private sector transfers (payments of non-life insurance premiums).

In the first five months of this year, the deficit of the consolidated balance of public finances was lower year-on-year. It totalled EUR 78 million, compared to EUR 170 million in the same period last year. Revenues increased by 11.3% year-on-year. The increase was, in addition to the increased revenue from social contributions due to the transformation of the complementary health contribution into a mandatory contribution, mainly supported by revenue from corporate income tax, driven by higher balancing payments of tax this year. The main contributors to the growth in government revenue were income tax receipts, which, in addition to the slightly higher balancing payments of tax this year, are also influenced by the non-adjustment of the income tax scale and tax relief to inflation. VAT receipts picked up significantly in the first five months of this year. Growth in revenue from excise duties was lower year-on-year. In their structure, excise duties on energy products and electricity were lower, while excise duties on tobacco products and on alcohol and alcoholic beverages were higher. Total receipts from the EU budget were also lower year-on-year. In the first four months of the year, expenditure increased by 10.2% year-on-year. The increase was mainly due to: (i) expenditure on salaries, wages and other personnel expenditure, which were influenced by the agreement on pay rises in the public sector and the early payment of the holiday allowance, (ii) growth in expenditure on goods and services and other healthcare expenditure in connection with the transformation of the complementary health insurance into a mandatory contribution, and (iii) transfers to individuals and households, partly as a result of the high regular annual indexation of pensions. Contribution from interest and investment expenditure was slightly lower. From August 2023 to the end of May 2024, EUR 710.9 million had been disbursed from the state budget to rectify the consequences of floods and landslides, of which EUR 152.8 million was disbursed in the first five months of this year, most of it for ongoing maintenance and insurance under the emergency Flood Recovery Act.

Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first five months of 2024 (at EUR 44.1 million). In this period, Slovenia received EUR 283.7 million from the EU budget (19.6% of receipts envisaged in the adopted state budget for 2024) and paid EUR 239.6 million into it (33.3% of planned payments). The bulk of receipts (35.7% of all reimbursements to the state budget, 100.5% of the planned reimbursements in 2024) were resources from the Cohesion Fund and appropriations for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (29.9% of all reimbursements to the state budget, 23.1% of the planned reimbursements in 2024). Reimbursements from the structural funds amounted to 27.5% of all reimbursements (26.1% of the planned reimbursements in 2024). The highest payments into the EU budget came from GNI-based payments (47.5% of all payments).
According to the MKRR data, under the Operational Programme for the Implementation of EU Cohesion policy 2014–2020 (from January 2014 to the end of May 2024), payments from the state budget totalled EUR 3.55 billion (EU share), which corresponds to 106% of the available funds, while certain payments from the state budget are planned for the first half of 2024 (about EUR 66 million according to estimates made by line ministries). Under the Operational Programme for the Implementation of EU Cohesion policy 2021–2027 (from January 2021 to the end of May 2024), payments from the state budget totalled EUR 28.9 million (EU share), which corresponds to 1% of the available funds.