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In the first quarter of this year, year-on-year economic growth in Slovenia was similar to the fourth quarter of last year, supported by private and government consumption; investment growth slowed and total exports remained negative year-on-year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated month-on-month in the first quarter of this year, following growth of around 1% in the previous quarter, while it rose by 2.1% year-on-year. Household consumption rose by 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, with households spending more on tourist services abroad, cars and food and less on non-food products and overnight stays in Slovenia. Growth in government consumption increased further, mainly due to the transformation of supplementary health insurance into a mandatory contribution. Investment activity, which experienced significant growth in the previous year, has weakened, along with growth in construction activity. After a marked negative contribution last year, inventories made a positive contribution to the growth in gross investment this time. Exports of goods and value added in manufacturing increased for the second consecutive quarter and was also higher year-on-year. Total exports of goods and services fell due to a decline in exports of services, while total imports experienced an even sharper decline, positively impacting GDP growth. 

Economic activity in the euro area picked up slightly in the first quarter, as expected by international institutions; the OECD revised its growth forecasts for this year and next upwards. After contracting quarter-on-quarter in the second half of last year due to tighter financing conditions, weak confidence and a loss of competitiveness, euro area GDP grew by 0.3% in Q1 and by 0.4% year-on-year. Available indicators suggest that this trend will continue into the second quarter. The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continued to rise in April, reaching its highest level in 11 months. In April, the Germany's composite PMI climbed above the 50 mark (the threshold between economic expansion and contraction) for the first time in ten months. The economic sentiment indicator (ESI) in the euro area, along with sentiment in all activities and among consumers, was higher in April than in the second half of last year, when economic activity had contracted. In May, the OECD revised its growth forecasts for the world’s major economies upward. The euro area’s GDP growth is projected to gradually strengthen, mainly driven by increased private consumption supported by higher confidence, low unemployment and wage growth, along with a further decline in inflation. Growth is expected to be 0.7% this year, rising to 1.5% in 2025, according to OECD forecasts. However, the outlook is surrounded by high uncertainty related to the potential further escalation of the situation in the Middle East.

At the beginning of the year, the year-on-year increase in the number of persons in employment and the decline in the number of the unemployed continued. Due to a methodological change, the recorded growth in the number of persons in employment is slightly higher than in the final months of last year. Growth continues to be driven by a higher number of foreigners in employment, particularly in construction, transportation and storage, and administrative and support service activities. In April, the monthly decline in the number of registered unemployed was similar to the previous two months (seasonally adjusted). Year-on-year, the total number of unemployed fell by 7% and the number of long-term unemployed by 15%, against the backdrop of labour shortages. In February, the average gross wage rose by 6.9% year-on-year in nominal terms and by 3.4% in real terms, indicating slightly lower growth compared to January given the similar level of inflation and a higher base from last year. The average wage increased by 3.9% in the private sector and by 2.4% in the public sector. 

In April, year-on-year inflation dropped to 3%, the lowest level since October 2021; industrial producer prices continued to fall year-on-year, although the decline has slowed somewhat. The slowdown in inflation compared to March was mainly due to less pronounced seasonal rises in prices of package holidays and clothing and footwear. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages remained unchanged year-on-year. Prices of durable goods fell again year-on-year (-0.7%), while the growth of services prices fell by one-quarter (4.5%). Industrial producer prices were 3.3% lower year on-year in March. Despite relatively high monthly price increases, the year-on-year price decline in the energy product group slowed somewhat, though remaining substantial (-12.2%). The year-on-year decline of intermediate goods prices accelerated slightly (-5.8%).  

In the first quarter of this year, the consolidated general government budgetary accounts showed a deficit of EUR 372 million, which is higher than the deficit recorded in the same period last year (EUR 294 million). Revenue increased by 8.1% year-on-year, due to growth of revenue from social contributions (due to the transformation of the supplementary health insurance into a mandatory contribution) and a sharp rise in personal income tax revenues in the first quarter. These were stagnant in the same period last year due to the increase in tax relief, while the increase this year was partly influenced by the non-adjustment of tax relief and net annual tax bases. Total receipts from the EU budget were lower year-on-year. Expenditure in the first quarter was 9% year-on-year. The main contributors were expenditure on salaries, wages and other personnel expenditure, which were influenced by last year’s agreement on pay rises in the public sector and this year’s early payment of the holiday allowance, the increase in expenditure on goods and services and other healthcare expenditure in connection with the transformation of the supplementary health insurance into a mandatory contribution, and transfers to individuals and households, partly as a result of the high regular annual indexation of pensions. Growth in capital expenditure strengthened. 

Business results of companies improved last year as the energy crisis subsided, especially in the energy sector, while performance indicators returned to the levels of 2021. In 2023, net profit increased by 10.1% to EUR 6,699 million in nominal terms, but taking inflation into account (7.4% year-on-year), the increase was more modest in real terms. All sectors operated at a profit in 2023, but the primary driver of the overall profit increase was the strong improvement in the business results in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. The sharp fluctuations in operating profit in this area over the last two years were strongly influenced by various factors: river level fluctuations, major changes in energy prices on the market, price regulation and longer-term contracts with consumers, which had a negative impact on the business results in 2022 and a positive impact in 2023. There was also a notable improvement in business activity in nominal terms in construction and trade. Conversely, the most significant declines were seen in manufacturing and professional, scientific and technical activities. In manufacturing, net profit fell markedly in energy-intensive manufacturing activities, although it was still above the highest levels achieved before the epidemic. After high growth in 2022, the sharpest decline was recorded in the manufacture of basic metals. Net profit further declined in the chemical industry, while it increased in the paper industry and the manufacture of non-metal mineral products.