Charts of the Week


Charts of the Week

Charts of the week from 3 to 7 February 2025: consumer prices, unemployment, value of fiscally verified invoices and exports and imports of goods

Consumer prices fell month-on-month in January (by 0.4%), but their year-on-year growth edged up slightly (to 2.0%) compared to December. This increase was primarily driven by higher prices in the transport group, mainly due to a low base effect. The year-on-year growth of service prices also rose slightly, while growth slowed in most other groups. The number of unemployed in January remained similar to the end of last year, but the year-on-year decline slowed, reflecting higher (year-on-year) inflows into unemployment due to redundancies and bankruptcies. The year-on-year growth in the nominal value of fiscally verified invoices doubled to 4% in January. Real exports and imports of goods declined in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third. On the export side, this was mainly driven by lower vehicle exports, while on the import side, by reduced imports of intermediate and capital goods. Year-on-year, real exports and imports of goods increased in the fourth quarter, as they did throughout 2024. 
 

Consumer prices fell month-on-month in January (by 0.4%), but their year-on-year growth edged up slightly (to 2.0%) compared to December. This time, the main driver of the higher year-on-year inflation were higher prices in the transport group (3%), where price growth more than doubled compared to the previous month. This was partly due to a low base effect from last year, when petroleum product prices had dropped significantly (partly due to government measures adopted at the end of 2023), and partly due to higher prices of petroleum products at the beginning of this year. In January, price growth in the restaurants and hotels (4.8%) and recreation and culture (2.2%) groups also rebounded slightly year-on-year, which also contributed to higher year-on-year price growth in services (3.1%). Conversely, the price increase in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group slowed slightly year-on-year in January (2.3%), despite higher taxes on sweetened beverages. Amid a slightly more pronounced seasonal price drop in the clothing and footwear groups (by 9.5% on a monthly basis), the year-on-year growth of semi-durable goods prices halved year-on-year (1%), while the decline in durable goods prices slowed again slightly (-0.3%). 

 

In January, the number of unemployed persons (seasonally adjusted) remained similar to the levels seen at the end of last year. According to original data, 50,148 people were unemployed at the end of January, 6.6% more than at the end of December. This largely reflects seasonal trends related to a higher inflow into unemployment due to expiry of fixed-term employment contracts. Year-on-year, the number of unemployed was 2.8% lower in January, reflecting a similar decline to that of December 2024, with the decline slowing down compared to previous months. This was mainly due to a year-on-year increase in the inflow of unemployed persons attributed to redundancies and bankruptcies at the end of the year and higher inflow into unemployment due to the expiry of fixed-term employment contracts at the beginning of the year. Amid persistent labour shortages and retirement of older employees, the numbers of long-term unemployed (those unemployed for more than one year) and of unemployed over 55 fell year-on-year at the end of January, by 11.4% and 10.5% respectively. In contrast, the number of unemployed young people (aged 15–29) was slightly higher year-on-year for the fourth month in a row.

 

The year-on-year increase in the nominal value of fiscally verified invoices doubled to 4% in January. Year-on-year growth, which had weakened from a peak in the first quarter of 2024 to the end of the year (to 2% in the fourth quarter), accelerated significantly at the beginning of 2025 (to 4%).

 

Real exports and imports of goods declined in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third (seasonally adjusted); they were both higher year-on-year. The quarterly decline in exports (-2.0%) was largely driven by a significant month-on-month decline in December. Additionally, exports to some of Slovenia’s main EU trading partners—particularly Germany, France, Croatia, and Italy—declined in the fourth quarter. Vehicle exports fell sharply for the third consecutive quarter, which we attribute to lower motor vehicle production, weakened car demand and uncertainty in the European automotive industry. Exports of metals and metal products as well as machinery and equipment also declined. Exports of chemical products, including pharmaceuticals, increased, but growth was lower than in previous quarters. In terms of imports (-2.6%), those of intermediate goods and capital goods fell quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, while those of consumer goods remained at the previous quarter's level (all seasonally adjusted). Year-on-year, exports and imports increased both in the fourth quarter of last year (3.2% and 1.2% respectively) and in 2024 as a whole (3.4% and 3.6% respectively). This was partly due to a low base in the second half of 2023 and a higher number of working days in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. 
In January sentiment in export-oriented manufacturing activities, including export orders, remained very low in Slovenia.