Charts of the Week


Charts of the Week

Charts of the week from 13 to 17 January 2025: activity in construction, number of persons in employment, current account of the balance of payments, road and rail freight transport

After declining since the beginning of 2024, construction activity saw a significant increase in November 2024, although it remained lower year-on-year. The number of persons in employment, which had mostly stagnated at record-high levels since mid-2023, experienced a slight increase in November 2024 (seasonally adjusted), with continued growth in public services. The current account surplus was higher in the first 11 months of 2024 than in the same period a year earlier, primarily due to improvements in the goods trade balance. The volume of road and rail freight transport decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2024 (seasonally adjusted).
 

Construction activity strengthened significantly month-on-month in November 2024, but remained lower year-on-year. After declining gradually until autumn 2024, construction activity increased by 10% in November. In November 2024, the value of construction put in place was 4% lower year-on-year. For the first eleven months combined it declined by 10%. In this comparison, the most significant declines were seen in civil engineering (down 14%) and construction of buildings (down 13%), while specialised construction activities saw the smallest decline (down 4%). 
This lower activity was (among other things) related to government investment activity. Capital expenditure (according to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts) fell by 7% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2024, and expenditure on new construction, reconstruction, and renovation, which we consider to be most closely linked to construction activity, was 24% lower.

 

The number of persons in employment increased slightly in November 2024 (seasonally adjusted). Their number has shown little variation since mid-2023 (except for the impact of a methodological change at the beginning of 2024), with developments varying across activities. In November, growth in the number of persons in employment continued in the public services, most markedly in human health and social work activities. In construction, the number of persons in employment stagnated year-on-year against the backdrop of lower activity and a persistent shortage of skilled labour. The number is also stagnating in market services, while it is gradually declining in manufacturing (all seasonally adjusted). Year-on-year growth in the overall number of persons in employment in November (1.1%) was consistent with the growth observed in previous months. In the first 11 months of 2024, their number was 1.2% higher year-on-year. Among those in employment, the number of foreign workers continues to rise, whereas the number of Slovenian workers is declining, albeit very slowly, due to retirement. In November, the share of foreign citizens among all persons in employment was 15.9%, 1.2 p.p. higher than a year earlier. Activities with the largest share of foreigners are construction (50%), transportation and storage (34%) and administrative and support service activities (29%).

 

The current account surplus amounted to EUR 3.3 billion in the first eleven months of 2024 and was 0.5 billion higher than in the same period of 2023. The main reason for the year-on-year change in the current account balance was the goods trade balance, with exports rising more sharply than imports. The surplus in trade in services further increased slightly, especially in trade in  technical, trade-related services, but partly also in certain knowledge-based services (telecommunications, computer and information services, financial services and R&D services). The deficits in the primary and secondary income balances have narrowed. The former decreased due to lower net payments of taxes on production and imports and higher net interest income from financial investments in securities and from deposits in foreign accounts. The lower secondary income deficit was mainly due to lower GNI- and VAT-based contributions to the EU budget.

 

The volume of road and rail freight transport decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2024 (seasonally adjusted). The total volume of road transport performed by Slovenian vehicles decreased in road traffic performed at least partially on Slovenian territory (exports, imports and national transport), while the growth in cross-trade transport came to a halt. The share of cross-trade in total transport increased to about 49% – a level comparable to pre-COVID-19 figures. The volume of road goods transport fell by 1% year-on-year and by 16% compared to the third quarter of 2019. After experiencing growth in the second quarter of 2024, rail freight transport declined slightly in the third quarter. It remained higher year-on-year (by 3%) but was similarly lower compared to the same quarter of 2019 as road transport.