Development Report
Related Files
Development Report 2022
Slovenia’s economy saw a quick rebound in 2021 with the help of massive government measures that kept the material and financial situation of the population relatively stable. The burden of the epidemic assumed by the government was reflected in a high general government deficit and an increase in general government debt, especially in 2020. The main challenge remains to overcome the development gap with the EU average. The Development Report, with which the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development annually monitors the implementation of the Slovenian Development Strategy (SDS) 2030, contains important recommendations in this regard. To achieve long-term sustainable development and a better quality of life, development policy measures should focus on accelerating the inclusive transition to innovation-driven growth with a highly productive low-carbon circular economy. In this way, the measures would also help increase the resilience of the economy and society to crises, such as the current aggravation of the geopolitical situation due to the war in Ukraine.
Related Files
The transition to innovation-driven economic growth with a highly productive economy has been slow since the global financial crisis, and the transition to a low-carbon circular economy has been insufficient. The gap with the EU average in GDP per capita in purchasing power standards (an indicator of economic development and material well-being of the population) has only approached the 2008 level in 2021, and Slovenia is still far from achieving the SDS 2030 target. The reason for the slow narrowing of the development gap in the last decade is modest productivity growth, which is mainly due to low investment after the global financial crisis. At the same time, the impact of several years of declining investment in intangible capital after the last crisis (R&D, ICT, on-the-job training), slowing the transition to innovation-driven growth with a highly productive economy, is becoming increasingly evident; progress in decoupling economic growth from resource use and emissions has also been slow. Recently, there have been some shifts in addressing the challenges of the green transition and the transition to the fourth industrial revolution. For example, more resources will be allocated for these purposes in the future than in the previous medium-term period. This will be supported by the reformed part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). Nevertheless, the ambitious targets for achieving the twin transition indicate that their achievement will need to be further supported by systemic measures and resources. A growing obstacle to effective economic transformation and productivity growth is the increasing shortage of appropriate labour resulting from demographic change and the slow response to demand for new skills.
The COVID-19 epidemic has severely affected the health status of the population and has exacerbated the problem of access to healthcare and long-term care. The long-standing trend of improving the health status of the population has been interrupted by the epidemic. The epidemic has contributed to a further increase in mental health problems, health inequalities are expected to worsen and problems with accessibility of healthcare have also worsened. Accessibility of healthcare is good in terms of financial coverage of rights, while the healthcare system faces significant shortages of health workers and long waiting times. Several short-term measures were taken to increase the resilience of the healthcare system. A special law was passed to ensure investment in healthcare until 2031, and significant funds were earmarked for this purpose in the RRP for the coming years. In the last two years, the long-standing problem of access to long-term care (LTC) has worsened significantly. A framework law (adopted in 2021) will give the beneficiaries a wide scope of rights, but the biggest challenge remains the regulation of compulsory LTC insurance. In the long term, in addition to a sustainable structure of funding sources, adequate employment planning and improvement of working conditions will be crucial to increase the resilience of the healthcare system and the accessibility of LTC.
Among Slovenia’s main development challenges analysed in the Development Report 2022, we highlight the following areas:
- accelerating productivity growth
- accelerating transition to a low-carbon circular economy
- strengthening the resilience of the healthcare system and the financial sustainability of social protection systems, in particular in view of an ageing population, while providing quality services and adequate incomes to vulnerable groups
- strengthening the developmental role of the government and its institutions
Press release ↗
Indicators of Slovenia's development:
- A highly productive economy creating value added for all
- Lifelong learning
- An inclusive, healthy, safe and responsible society
- A preserved healthy natural environment
- A high level of cooperation, training and effective governance
1. Gross domestic product per capita in purchasing power standards
Since 2016, Slovenia has been gradually approaching the EU average in terms of economic development as measured by GDP per capita in purchasing power standards, although it still lags slightly behind the 2008 peak. With 29,100 PPS (purchasing power standards), Slovenia reached 90% of the EU average in 2021, which is 1 p.p. more than in 2020 and 1 p.p less than the 2008 peak. A decomposition of GDP per capita into productivity and employment rate shows that the lag in economic development behind the EU average is entirely the result of relatively lower productivity level, as the employment rate in Slovenia was above the EU average throughout the analysed period; in 2019–2021 it was 7% above the EU average. The slow convergence with the average level of development in the EU in the past decade was due to the relatively low productivity growth (GDP per person employed), with Slovenia reaching only 84% of the EU average in 2021, the same level as in 2005–2008. Slovenia’s modest progress in this area after the global financial crisis was the result of the slow restructuring of the economy (low contribution of the structural component to productivity growth) and the insufficient increase in value added per person employed in individual economic sectors (inter-sectoral growth component) (IMAD, 2022) (see also Indicator 1.8).
In 2021, 13 EU Member States were ahead of Slovenia in terms of the average level of development in the EU, and Slovenia’s progress over the last 16 years was the lowest among the new EU Member States. In 2005, Greece (95%), Portugal (85%) and Malta (83%) were closest to Slovenia in terms of GDP per capita in PPS; in 2021, it was Cyprus and Lithuania (88%) and the Czech Republic (92%). Compared to 2005, Romania, Lithuania, Poland and Estonia made the most progress among the new EU Member States, while Malta and the Czech Republic, which were countries with a similar level of development to Slovenia’s in 2005, both overtook Slovenia. In 2021, the greatest progress compared to 2020 among all EU Member States was made by Luxembourg (14 p.p.), Ireland (12 p.p.) and Croatia (6 p.p.), while the largest decline was made by Germany (-4 p.p.) and Austria (-3 p.p.). The gap in the GDP per capita indicator in PPS between the EU Member States narrowed from 1:9.3 (Romania/Luxembourg) at the beginning of the previous decade to 1:5 (Bulgaria/Luxembourg) in 2021.
Comparison of convergence to the EU average by GDP per capita in PPS from 2005 to 2021 for new EU Member States, in percentage points (EU=100)
2. Real GDP growth
After six years of growth, GDP fell sharply in 2020 due to the COVID-19 epidemic but already exceeded the pre-crisis level in 2021 with a strong upturn. After the recession during the global financial crisis, economic growth accelerated in 2014–2017 but then started to slow, mainly due to a slowdown in foreign demand and uncertainty regarding international trade and political relations. In 2020, all GDP components on the expenditure side, with the exception of government consumption, declined due to the epidemic and related restrictions. This was followed by a strong rebound of activity in 2021. Trade in goods and activities related to international trade, construction and investment already exceeded their pre-crisis levels by the end of 2020 or the beginning of 2021. Among investments, faster growth was recorded by investments in equipment and machinery, while slower growth was recorded in investments in construction. Amid supply chain problems, manufacturing growth began to slow in the second half of 2021, while trade in goods rebounded sharply in the final quarter after a quarterly decline in the third. In 2021, private consumption, which was the main driver of GDP growth in that year, also exceeded pre-crisis levels. With the easing of containment measures, it was stimulated by growth in disposable income, high savings and vouchers. In 2021, trade in services continued to recover and was mostly above pre-epidemic levels by the end of the year, with the exception of trade in travel.
After several years of higher growth, the decrease in real GDP was lower than the EU average in 2020 and the recovery in 2021 was stronger (SI: 8.1%, EU: 5.3%). The stronger recovery was due to faster growth in all GDP components. Economic growth in Slovenia having been slower than the (unweighted) average of the other new EU Member States in previous years, the decline in 2020 was smaller and the rebound in 2021 larger, reducing Slovenia’s cumulative growth gap since 2005 to 14.1 p.p.
3. General government debt
In 2021, general government debt stood at 74.7% of GDP, which is 5.1 p.p. lower than in 2020, when it had increased by 14.2 p.p. due to the COVID-19 epidemic. The sharp decline in debt in 2015–2019 (by 17 p.p.), which was larger among the EU Member States only in Ireland, was interrupted by a sharp debt increase in 2020 due to a decline in economic activity, measures to mitigate the impact of the epidemic and greater pre-financing of future borrowing, which the government used to increase the country’s cash reserves. However, the strong economic recovery and the reduction in cash reserves lowered the debt-to-GDP ratio slightly again in 2021, partly due to a lower primary deficit than in the previous year. Despite the uncertainties, but with the support measures of the ECB, which kept the interest rates for borrowing by the EMU countries low, and with active debt management, some strategic objectives of debt management in relation to refinancing risk were further pursued, i.e. extending the average term to maturity and lowering the average interest rate (MF, 2020). Slovenia’s debt-to-GDP ratio increase in 2019–2021 was lower than the average of EMU and EU countries and indeed among the lowest in the region.
4. Fiscal balance
Due to the strong impact of the epidemic on the economy and the strong measures taken to mitigate its consequences, the general government deficit was high in 2020, but it fell to 5.2% of GDP in 2021 given the strong recovery. Exceptional circumstances have interrupted the favourable fiscal performance since 2015. After falling in 2020 due not only to the deterioration in economic conditions caused by the epidemic but also to tax cuts and measures to support the economy (e.g. write-offs of tax liabilities), revenues rose sharply (by 11.9%) in 2021 due to the recovery in domestic demand, exceeding the 2019 level. The high revenue growth is due to the strong increases in VAT revenues from high household consumption, income tax and social security contributions, driven by the recovery of employment and higher wage growth, partly due to allowances for work in hazardous conditions in the public sector. Growth in total expenditure slowed in 2021 (from 14.8% to 6.1%). Temporary expenditure on measures to mitigate the impact of the epidemic decreased slightly (from 5.2% to 4.5% of GDP) and was mainly concentrated on the activities most affected by the epidemic, especially in the second half of the year, while a significantly higher amount than in 2020 was allocated to the payment of public service allowances. Growth in other expenditure, which declined slightly in 2020 (from 5.1% to 3.1%), strengthened significantly in 2021 (to 7.3%). In addition to an increase in public investment as part of a broader European response to support a rapid recovery, this was influenced by increases in other expenditure that had a lasting impact, particularly in the area of the wage bill and social transfers. The high growth in expenditure that supported recovery was made possible by the implementation of the escape clause.
Last year, the general government deficit narrowed in most EMU countries but remained above 3% of GDP, with an average of 5.1% of GDP. In most countries, the deficit exceeded 6% of GDP in 2020 and 4% of GDP in 2021. It varied considerably from country to country, due, for example, to different containment measures and economic consequences, the impact of measures taken in previous years, and measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Some countries have largely taken measures that have a direct impact on public finances (such as Slovenia), while others have provided more support through various guarantee schemes. The EC notes that many countries, similar to Slovenia, in addition to taking temporary measures to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, have also taken measures that will have a lasting impact on the general government budgetary position over the medium term (EC, 2021m).
5. Current account of the balance of payments and net international investment position
The current account surplus, which Slovenia has had since 2012, lowered significantly in 2021, amounting to EUR 1.7 billion (3.3% of GDP). Until the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, the surplus reflected the extensive deleveraging of banks and companies abroad, favourable international conditions and the improved competitive position of Slovenian exporters amid modest growth in imports due to relatively low domestic spending. In 2020, the epidemic affected all sectors of the economy and thus the structure of the current account surplus, which increased sharply and was higher than ever before (EUR 3.5 billion, i.e. 7.4% of GDP), mainly due to a severe domestic consumption shock and thus significant savings by the private sector (households and non-financial corporations). In 2021, the surplus declined due to the deteriorating terms of trade and the recovery of domestic demand. As import prices rose more than export prices, the terms of trade deteriorated, which led to higher operating costs of non-financial corporations. From the perspective of the savings/investment gap, the narrowing of the current account surplus was mainly due to a decline in net household savings and an increase in net investment by non-financial corporations. As gross disposable income continued to grow and the containment measures were gradually eased, households increased their private consumption and businesses increased their investment activity. The lower current account deficit of the government sector was mainly due to an increase in the country’s GNI (higher import tax revenues, lower net interest payments and lower subsidy payments).
In the face of the epidemic, Slovenia’s international investment position further improved in 2021 (to 7.1% of GDP). The net inflow of assets of the Bank of Slovenia (BoS) was significantly lower than the net outflow of government and private sector financial assets. The BoS’s claims related to the TARGET payment system increased due to higher government deposits at the BoS, which also increased its liabilities within the Eurosystem. The BoS also reduced its purchases of foreign securities. In 2021, the general government sector reduced its net foreign liabilities. The government repaid a portion of its debt to foreign portfolio investors and reduced its derivative liabilities. Slovenia received a loan under the SURE programme to retain jobs during the epidemic. The private sector further increased its financial investments in foreign equity securities, while non-financial corporations increased their net liabilities on short-term commercial credits, consistent with the growth in foreign trade in goods and services. Commercial banks continued to deleverage abroad. Inward FDI flows have risen in recent years, on account of the sale of ownership stakes in domestic companies and capitalisations, and exceeded the outward FDI flows.
6. Financial stability
The Slovenian financial system remained stable in 2020 and 2021 despite the COVID-19 epidemic. The response of economic policymakers during the epidemic significantly limited the spillover of risks to the financial system, which thus remains able to provide financial support to the economy. However, the risks remained high, especially in the medium and long term, as the rapid growth of public and, to a limited extent, private debt, the prolonged epidemic, and the deteriorating geopolitical situation could lead to a worsening of the financial system conditions. The situation could be further exacerbated by the persistence of higher inflation. This would lead to a faster monetary policy tightening and thus to a deterioration of credit conditions, especially in the peripheral EMU member states. At the end of 2021, the ECB already announced a gradual withdrawal of stimulative monetary policy measures, but by the beginning of 2022, financing conditions were already deteriorating slightly despite key interest rates being kept low.
The situation in the banking system also remained stable. Banking system liquidity remained high in 2021 and the share of non-performing loans fell to 2.4% in the third quarter. Risk was slightly elevated in activities most severely affected by the containment measures, particularly in accommodation and food service activities, but the overall exposure of the banking system to this activity is relatively low. The capital adequacy of the banking system deteriorated in 2020 but remained at a relatively high level given the minimum capital requirements. The lower capital adequacy was mainly due to a one-off event (the merger of two banks). In 2021, the capital adequacy increased slightly but still lagged behind the EU average. The inflow of deposits to banks slowed somewhat but remained at a relatively high level, more than sufficient for the credit activity of the banking system, which grew slightly in the last few months of 2021 and at the beginning of 2022. The loan-to-deposit ratio stabilised at around 0.70 last year and was more than half lower than at the onset of the global financial crisis. At the same time, dependence on foreign sources of finance remained modest. The share of liabilities to foreign banks was lower than 5% of the banking system’s total assets.
7. Financial system development
Slovenia’s gap with the EU average in the level of financial system development remains wide and the only sector where it has narrowed slightly is the insurance sector. In 2021, the banking system’s total assets increased by 7%, but the indicator of total assets as a share of GDP further decreased slightly amid strong economic growth. The growth of the balance sheet total on the liabilities side was mainly due to the growth in domestic non-banking sector deposits (mainly household sight deposits), whose growth slowed slightly in 2021 due to higher household spending and the introduction of deposit fees on certain household deposits. On the asset side, amid subdued lending activity, banks again increased their deposits with the central bank, which already account for a fifth of banks’ total assets. The loan-to-deposit ratio has stabilised at around 0.70 and was the lowest since 2004 (since comparable data are available). The gap in capital market development, measured by the stock market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, also remains wide. The market capitalisation of shares listed on the Ljubljana Stock exchange increased by 37,5% in 2021, which is about 4 p.p. more than the EU average and is mainly due to the growth in the value of shares. A large part of the Slovenian capital market is represented by government bonds, while corporate financing via issuance of shares and bonds is still negligible compared to other sources of financing.
The development gap with the EU average is smaller in the insurance sector than in other segments of the financial system and further decreased markedly in 2020 to reach about three-quarters of the EU average. The smaller development gap is the result of continued growth in both life and non-life premiums in the insurance system, while in the EU the volume of premiums (especially life insurance) fell by almost 5% in the year of the outbreak of the epidemic. Nevertheless, the share of life insurance premiums in Slovenia is still well below the EU average. The large volume of household deposits in banks and low interest rates could lead to a somewhat faster shift in household savings habits towards an increase in retirement savings, which could increase the share of life insurance and capital market investments.
8. Regional variation in GDP per capita
The COVID-19 epidemic has had an uneven impact on regions, depending on their economic structure. The Osrednjeslovenska region, where the capital, with its state-building functions and numerous jobs that also provide employment for inhabitants of other regions, is located was one of the regions least affected by the COVID-19 crisis, with a GDP per capita 44.2% higher than the Slovenian average in 2020. Jugovzhodna Slovenija, whose economy is primarily focused on the pharmaceutical and automotive industries, recorded a smaller decline in economic activity than the Slovenian average in 2020, surpassing Slovenia’s average GDP per capita for the first time. The Obalno-kraška region, which was hit hardest by the COVID-19 epidemic (10% drop in GDP in real terms) due to the high share of accommodation and food service activities and tourism, has widened its gap with the Slovenian average. The Posavska, Zasavska and Pomurska regions were less affected and narrowed their gap in GDP per capita with the Slovenian average. The Pomurska region thus overtook the Primorsko-notranjska region, which ranked second to last. The Zasavska region also narrowed its gap, but with 54.6% of the Slovenian average it is still at the tail end of the regions.
Regional disparities widened again in 2020 after being stable for a long period of time. In 2020, the relative dispersion of GDP per capita was 1.8 p.p. higher than a year earlier, approaching the level of ten years ago. The ratio between the two extreme statistical regions decreased slightly (1:2.6), due to a smaller decrease in GDP per capita in the Zasavska region. The disparities between the two cohesion regions remained stable, but they widened considerably within the regions of Zahodna Slovenija due to the sharp decline in GDP in the weakest statistical regions.
Statistical regions, with the exception of Osrednjeslovenska, lag behind the European average and also the regions in neighbouring countries. With an increase of 3 p.p., the Osrednjeslovenska region remained the highest above the EU average in 2020, while the Obalno-kraška and Gorenjska regions saw their gaps widen the most. Given the considerable lagging behind of the majority of the regions, the catching up with the European average seems to be an extremely complex long-term objective. Therefore, we compared individual statistical regions with regions in neighbouring countries that are at a similar stage of development. In 2019, the Osrednjeslovenska region was at the same level as the Klagenfurt–Villach region, the Goriška region lagged behind the Italian Gorizia region by 16 p.p. and the Pomurska region lagged behind the Hungarian Vas region by 5 p.p. In 2020, the Zahodna Slovenija cohesion region was 6% above the European average, while the Vzhodna Slovenija cohesion region was among the less developed regions, at 74% of the European average.
9. Productivity
Following the global financial crisis, productivity growth slowed and with it also the closing of the productivity gap to the EU average. The average annual productivity growth eased from 3.0% in 2000–2008 to 0.6% in 2009–2019 (or to 1.4% in the period of economic expansion 2014–2019). As productivity growth slowed, so did the closing of the gap and thus the process of real convergence with the more developed EU Member States. In 2021, Slovenia reached 84% of the EU average in terms of productivity level, which, despite the gradual convergence in recent years, is still at the level reached before the global financial crisis and far below the set SDS 2030 target (95%).
After a sharp downswing in the initial phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, productivity – per person employed – increased gradually, exceeding pre-epidemic levels in most activities. Productivity in the economy as a whole, measured by real GDP per person employed, exceeded 2019 levels by mid-2021; in 2021 as a whole, it was 2.7% higher than in the year before the COVID-19 outbreak (-0.7% in the EU). The level of value added per person employed was significantly higher than in 2019 in financial services, manufacturing and, due to the strong upswing last year, also in trade. Productivity growth in these activities was also much higher than the EU average. The sharpest decline both in Slovenia and in the EU as a whole was recorded in services that were hampered by operating restrictions, i.e. the arts, entertainment and recreation. Construction also stands out when it comes to lagging behind the pre-epidemic levels, although activity in this sector was not significantly disrupted by the epidemic. Value added in construction grew slightly over this two-year period, but much less than employment, whose growth in Slovenia and the rest of the EU was among the highest among all economic sectors (higher only in ICT services). The high employment growth could indicate labour hoarding ahead of the expected investment boom, but it was probably also sustained by job-retention measures and partial compensation of labour costs during the epidemic.
10. The European Innovation Index
According to the European Innovation Index (EII), Slovenia was still classified in the group of moderate innovators in 2021, having been classified among the strong innovators before 2018. The EII is a composite indicator measuring the EU Member States’ performance of national research and innovation systems on 12 components. Its value determines the classification of countries into four groups. The EII value for Slovenia had deteriorated in 2018–2020, while according to the latest measurement, for 2021, this trend was halted due to a considerable improvement in the innovators component. However, Slovenia still ranked second to last in terms of progress among EU Member States in the whole period from 2014 for which the data is available. Therefore, Slovenia was classified in the group of moderate innovators for the third year in a row, having previously been among strong innovators, with a value close to the EU average. The European average increased in 2014–2021, which means that Slovenia has moved away from the SDS 2030 target, according to which it should be classified among the innovation leaders. Broken down by EII components, the worst result compared to the EU average in 2021 was achieved in terms of firm investments, which is mainly a result of low non-R&D innovation expenditure. Here the gap with the EU average widened the most between 2014 and 2021. The best result was recorded in the use of information technologies, due to a high proportion of companies providing ICT training for employees. However, the biggest improvement in the result compared to the EU average was achieved in environmental sustainability, mainly due to improved resource productivity (see Indicator 4.5).
The European Innovation Index
11. The Digital Economy and Society Index
According to the new methodology, Slovenia is above the EU average in terms of the digital transformation of the economy and society, but it is gradually losing its advantage over the EU average in the long run. The methodology for calculating the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) was fundamentally changed in 2021 to align it with the four main points of the 2030 Digital Compass (EC, 2021i), which also changed the ranking of countries compared to previous years. Taking into account the new methodology for 2016–2021, Slovenia was above the EU average in all years, exceeding it by 8 p.p. in 2016 but by only 4 p.p. in 2021. Thus Slovenia ranks between 13th and 14th in the EU, which indicates that it is not making progress towards the set SDS strategic targets. The dynamics by individual DESI dimensions show that Slovenia’s relative position in human capital, i.e. 13th place, is slightly above the EU average: slightly below average in internet user skills and slightly above the EU average in advanced ICT skills. The share of the population (aged 16–74) with at least basic digital skills (55%) is in line with the EU average but far behind the innovation leaders, where this share is 70%. Slovenia has made progress in the area of connectivity over the past year compared to the EU average (both through the allocation of 5G frequencies and progress in the broadband price index), but at the same time it has significantly reduced its comparative advantage in the long run, seeing its ranking fall by two places between 2016 and 2021. In terms of integration of digital technology, Slovenia is well above the EU average according to all three sub-dimensions, although it is gradually losing its advantage. In addition to losing its advantage when it comes to digital intensity of SMEs compared to the EU average (which decreased by six index points between 2016 and 2021), the decrease in comparative advantage in the use of digital technologies in enterprises is particularly worrying: if Slovenian enterprises still outperformed the EU average by 24 index points in 2016, their advantage decreased to only 10 index points in 2021. Notwithstanding the above, Slovenia has maintained its 8th place in the EU in terms of integration of digital technology throughout the period. Trends in digital public services were positive throughout the 2016–2021 period, both in absolute and comparative terms, meaning that Slovenia reached the EU average for the first time in 2021. The last measurement showed significant progress in terms of take-up of e-government services, but Slovenia continues to lag far behind the EU when it comes to the quality of digital services for businesses, ranking 22nd in the EU.
12. Export market share
After a sharp decline during the global financial crisis, Slovenia’s export market share increased in 2013–2019. In 2008–2012, Slovenia saw a sharp drop in world market share, one of the largest in the region. This was partly due to the export (mainly geographical) orientation on slower-growing markets, with a sharp decline in cost competitiveness at the beginning of the global financial crisis also having a negative impact (see also Indicator 1.12). With an improvement in price/cost factors and strengthening of import demand in Slovenia’s main trading partners, the market share started to increase again after 2013, and even more significantly in 2016–2018.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic had a very asymmetric impact on export markets, which had a strong effect on the dynamics of Slovenia’s market share in 2020 and 2021. Despite a sharp decline in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, Slovenia’s export market share in the global goods market increased by 1.3% in 2020 as a whole (0.4% in the EU market). In 2021, however, it shrunk, according to initial estimates – to a level slightly below that before the COVID-19 outbreak. The deterioration in competitiveness, with rising cost pressures in 2021, may already be contributing to this (see Section 1.2.1), but accouding to our estimations it is even more due to weak foreign demand for some of the most important Slovenian product groups. More detailed data on the export/import flows of EU Member States, to which Slovenia exports around three-quarters of all its goods exports, show that the pandemics and the problems in the supply of semiconductors have severely affected international trade in road vehicles, which is the largest group of Slovenia’s goods exports. In 2020, this strong negative structural effect was mitigated by favourable export trends in pharmaceuticals, but these were interrupted in early 2021. In the second half of 2021, exports of electrical machinery and equipment also lost momentum. 2021 was also marked by a notable increase in commodity prices on global markets. With a sharp rise in metal prices, the value of international trade in these products increased (although the increase in volume was less pronounced) – EU imports of metals (iron, steel and non-ferrous metals) already exceeded pre-epidemic (2019) levels by around 30%. Slovenian exporters also managed to increase their market shares in iron and steel. Since the beginning of the epidemic, the market shares of power generating, special purpose and industrial machinery and equipment have been increasing.
Change in the EU imports and Slovenian exports to the EU since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, by major product groups
13. Unit labour costs
Real unit labour costs (RULC) had started to rise again in the last two years before the COVID-19 epidemic, driven by higher wage growth and lower productivity growth. Under the impact of a fall in productivity (2009) and relatively strong wage growth (2010) considering the economic situation at that time, Slovenia saw a significant deterioration in its cost competitiveness during the global financial crisis. The adjustments arising mainly from the labour market, more specifically restrained wage growth and (passive) productivity increase through declining employment, were followed by a period of relatively aligned increases in wages and productivity (2014–2017). Unit labour costs started rising again over the course of 2018 (especially in the business sector) and even more significantly in 2019.
Estimates that take into account the impact of COVID-19 subsidies show that unit labour costs for businesses did not increase further during the epidemic, but they remained at a relatively high level compared both to past values and to the EU average. After the initial shock, productivity in Slovenia increased relatively quickly during the epidemic and was significantly above the (nominal) pre-epidemic level. The increase in wages, or more precisely in compensation of employees per employee, was even more pronounced in 2020 and 2021, rising by 9.1% in 2021 compared to 2019 (by 6.0% in the business sector). This led to a strong growth of the RULC indicator, which increased by another 2.5% (by 1.8% in the business sector) relative to the already high 2019 level. In 2020, wage growth was largely supported by subsidies under the anti-coronavirus packages, meaning that it did not burden employers. Therefore we estimate that the RULC statistical indicator significantly overestimated the actual cost pressures and their negative impact on business results. However, in the course of 2021, the impact of subsidies in the business sector, i.e. the market-oriented part of the economy, most of which was already functioning normally, gradually declined. Since measures to retain jobs and workers’ incomes varied across countries in both scope and scale, the comparison of statistical indicators not adjusted for budget expenditures is very limited and does not reflect the change in the cost competitiveness of exporters during the epidemic. However, if productivity growth loses momentum, the high wage growth that Slovenia also experienced during the epidemic could quickly lead to a deterioration in the cost competitiveness of Slovenian exporters.
14. Exports of high-technology products and knowledge-intensive services
The share of exports of high-technology products has been fairly stable in recent years and higher than the EU average. The technological intensity of exports in Slovenia increased more noticeably between 2005 and 2010 and especially during the global financial crisis, when some other less competitive industries (e.g. certain low-technology products, such as textiles) started to contract more markedly. In 2010–2019, exports of high-technology products increased further in nominal terms, while their share remained at the level achieved. Due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the downturn in the automotive industry (low- and medium-technology products), the share of high-technology products in the export structure increased in 2020, with the share of exports of medical and pharmaceutical products in particular increasing in the face of higher demand; the share of electrical machinery and equipment was also higher (the two groups account for more than half of all exports of high-technology products).
The share of exports of knowledge-intensive services increased significantly in 2020, marked by the COVID-19 epidemic, but remained small by international comparison. It accounted for 30.4% of services exports (the highest in 2010–2020), though this still places Slovenia only 20th in the EU. The sharp increase was mainly due to a significant decrease in exports of travel and transportation services due to the epidemic. Before that, it had gradually increased from 20.6% to 24.2% in 2010–2017 and afterwards stagnated around the level reached. As a result, Slovenia’s gap with the EU average and the average of innovation leaders widened (lagging almost 15 p.p. behind both averages in 2020). As regards services, Slovenia’s share was above the EU average and the average of innovation leaders in 2013–2020, especially in telecommunications services, and in the last two years the share started to increase again. Slovenia was furthest behind in computer services (in 2020 by more than 10 p.p.), as most Eastern European Member States achieved much higher growth in exports of such services (by 20% per year on average, Slovenia by 11.1%).
15. Foreign direct investment
Inward foreign direct investment (FDI) into Slovenia had risen relatively rapidly from 2015 until the outbreak of the epidemic, while outward FDI had been modest, but during the epidemic inflow of inward FDI in particular decreased significantly. The amount of foreign direct investment increased by as much as 52.4% in 2015–2021, primarily owing to the inflow of equity capital, but also partly to debt instruments. Higher inward FDI was primarily due to the acceleration of the privatisation process and increased sales of equity stakes in Slovenian companies. There were also more expansions of the existing foreign-owned companies and new (greenfield) investment. EU Member States were the biggest investors in Slovenia, with Slovenia’s main trading partners contributing about two-thirds of total inflow of FDI. The average implicit rate of return on foreign direct investment was 7.7%, the highest among the international investment components. Outward FDI had been increasing since 2014, but at a relatively slow pace. In 2021, the stock of such investment was only 21.5% higher than in 2010. Slovenian direct investors have the largest share of direct investment in the other countries of the former Yugoslavia. The declining share of goods exports to this region over the last seven years indicates that Slovenia is replacing part of its former exports with local production in these markets. The average implicit rate of return on foreign direct investment was 2.7%.
Despite some progress, Slovenia remains among the EU Member States with the lowest inward FDI stock as a share of GDP. Although by 2021, the share of inward FDI in GDP had risen to 34.0%, it remained lower than in the new EU Member States overall despite the highest growth among these countries in the period 2009–2020. In terms of the share of outward FDI in GDP, the only new EU Member States that Slovenia lagged behind were the Czech Republic, Hungary and Estonia, which all had significantly higher shares.
16. R&D expenditure and the number of researchers
Expenditure on research and development (R&D) has been increasing over the last three years, but expressed relative to GDP, it still lags behind the 2013 peak and behind the EU average and the average of innovation leaders. It reached its highest nominal value in 2020, but in relative terms it still lagged behind in international comparison. The lag behind the EU average has been observed since 2016 (in 2020 by 0.2 p.p.) and an even larger gap has been observed behind the innovation leaders (in 2020 by 1.2 p.p.). Relative investment in R&D declined in only three EU Member States in 2020, marked by the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic, but only five Member States have already exceeded the so-called Barcelona objective. Over the period 2008–2020, Slovenia increased its relative investment in R&D by an average of 2.3% per year, but 12 other Member States increased it by much more (ranging from 2.9% in the Netherlands to 7.3% in Poland). Among the innovation leaders, a faster increase in R&D investment was recorded by Belgium (by 5%). Investments in R&D were falling in Slovenia with the consolidation of public finances after 2013, first in the public sector (by EUR 117 million by 2017 or around 40% compared to 2011); their nominal growth until 2020 covered only around 80% of this fall. The decline in R&D investment in the business enterprise sector in 2015–2017 (by EUR 175 million or by about 30% compared to 2014) was due to several factors, and its nominal increase to 2019 did not yet offset this decline. With a further fall in investment in 2020, the decline increased further, with the volume of investment falling short of the 2014 peak by almost a fifth.
Growth in the number of researchers in the business enterprise sector was halted in 2020, although growth having been driven mainly by this sector in 2008–2019. In 2018–2020, the business enterprise sector employed 53.6% of researchers. In the innovation leaders, this share in 2020 was only slightly higher than in Slovenia (60.7% and 62.6%), and Slovenia has been above the EU average since 2011 (EU 2020: 55.4%). Although the trend of several years of decline in the number of public sector researchers ended in 2018, the gap with the 2010 peak widened slightly in 2020, to 351 researchers.
17. Corporate environmental responsibility
In the recent period, a slowdown in the growth in the number of ISO 14001 and EMAS environmental certificates issued has been observed both in Slovenia and in the EU as a whole. Despite the epidemic, the number of ISO 14001 certificates issued per million inhabitants in Slovenia increased by 4.8% in 2020, which is still 2.8 p.p. lower growth than in the previous year. Growth was also lower in the EU. It decreased from 5% in 2019 to almost zero in 2020. The situation is even less favourable in the case of EMAS certificates, where the number of certificates issued per million inhabitants in Slovenia has stagnated for the third year in a row. In the EU, growth of 3.8% was recorded in 2020, but the prevalence of this certificate in 2021 remained at the previous year’s level. Measured by the number of ISO 14001 environmental certificates per million inhabitants, Slovenia still lagged behind most other new EU Member States in 2020 but was still above the EU average. In terms of EMAS certificates, on the other hand, Slovenia still lagged behind the EU average in 2021 but was surpassed among the other new EU Member States only by Cyprus, Estonia and Slovakia.
1. Share of the population with tertiary education
The share of adults (25–64 years) with tertiary education increased further in 2020 and exceeded the SDS target, but at the same time it was much lower than in most economically developed countries. In 2020, it was 35.9%, which is higher than the EU average (32.8%) and the SDS 2030 target (35%) but much lower than in most economically developed EU Member States. The long-term growth of the share is related to the high participation of young people in tertiary education and the transition of younger, on average more educated, people to higher age groups (a demographic effect). As a result, the highest increase in the share of adults with tertiary education over the period 2010–2020 was seen in the 35–44 and 25–34 age groups (the participation in the former group was also the most above the EU average). In the 30–34 age group, it has also been higher than the EU target of 40% since 2013, although lower than in most economically developed EU Member States. Despite the high participation of young people in tertiary education, their share (in the 20–24 age group) is lower than the EU average. Due to their greater participation in tertiary education, the share of tertiary-educated women is higher than that of men and the difference between the citizens of the Republic of Slovenia and foreign citizens is larger than the EU average. The share of people with tertiary education is highest in the most developed Osrednjeslovenska region (47.2%), followed by the Zasavska region with a half lower share (23.4%).
In 2010–2020, the share of employees with tertiary education increased and was higher than the EU average. In 2020, it was 42.2% (the EU average was 37.8%); in most private sector activities it was lower than in the public sector. With the increase in the share of employees with tertiary education, the share of tertiary educated people (20–64 years) also increased in 2010–2020 in occupations for which upper secondary or lower education is sufficient, in 2020 amounting to 15.3% (2010: 8.6%). The increase was higher in private sector activities, where the share was also higher than in the public sector. The share of the unemployed with tertiary education in the total number of unemployed also increased. This indicates a mismatch between tertiary education and labour market needs.
2. Enrolment in upper secondary and tertiary education
The number of young people enrolled in upper secondary education increased again in the 2020/2021 school year after a long period of decline. In the longer term, the number of candidates for direct enrolment in tertiary education and participation in the labour market decreased. After declining for several years due to demographic reasons (smaller generations of young people), it rose again in the 2020/2021 school year with a slightly larger generation of young people (for demographic reasons) and was about a tenth lower than a decade ago (a good fifth lower at general upper secondary schools and 1.7% lower at vocational and technical schools). Although the share of those enrolled in vocational and technical programmes increased over the past ten years and is above the EU average, employers have difficulties in recruiting due to the low reputation of these professions and, consequently, the decision of young people to enrol in tertiary education and the increasing overall labour shortage due to demographic reasons and favourable economic developments. According to demographic projections, the number of young people enrolled in upper secondary schools is expected to increase in the future. It will therefore be crucial to encourage young people to enrol in educational programmes that will enable them to acquire skills to face future challenges of society and the economy.
In the 2020/2021 school year, the number of students enrolled in tertiary education increased for the second year in a row after several years of decline. Past trends were mainly related to demography (smaller generations of young people). The increase in the number of students enrolled last year (by 7.8%) is mainly due to the increase in the number of students who were granted the right to extend their student status due to the COVID-19 epidemic. In the long run, the number of students enrolled in social sciences and thus their share in the structure of enrolled students decreased and was lower in 2019 than the EU average. The share of students enrolled in science and technology, which was one of the largest among EU Member States in 2019, increased, but the number of students decreased, posing a pressing problem in terms of innovation needs. The number of students enrolled in health and welfare programmes has been rising for several years and their share was close to the EU average in 2019 but is still too low to meet the challenges of the long-lived society and to cope with the COVID-19 epidemic.
3. Tertiary education graduates
The number of tertiary education graduates decreased in 2020 for the second year in a row and was the lowest in the last decade. It decreased in all areas except social sciences, although here the decline was greatest compared to 2012. The largest increase was in the share of graduates in education. The share of graduates in natural sciences and technology, which was among the highest in the EU in 2019, also increased significantly in 2020, but their number was below the 2012 peak and insufficient to meet the labour market needs. The share of health and social welfare graduates also increased, but in 2019 it was among the lowest in the EU. Their number has been declining in the last few years, in contrast to the growing needs of the long-lived society. For a successful digital and green transformation of society and the economy, addressing the challenges of a long-lived society and promoting greater competitiveness of the economy, it is essential to increase the number of enrolment places for occupations for which demand will grow in the future. In 2020, 60.3% of tertiary education graduates were women. Their share has not changed significantly over the years and is higher than the share of men in all fields of education, with the exception of science and technology.
The number of new PhDs in 2020 was the lowest in the last decade. It peaked in 2015 and 2016 but has fluctuated since 2017 and was quite far from the peak in 2020. Such trends were related to the decrease in the number of those enrolled in doctoral studies from the 2012/2013 to 2015/2016 academic years, which could be attributed to the temporary suspension of co-financing of doctoral studies from public sources, years of reduced funding under the Young Researchers Programme, the ending of the Young Researchers in Economics programme and smaller generations. The decline in the number of new PhDs in 2020 could also be due to delays in completing studies because of the COVID-19 epidemic. In 2019, their number per 1,000 inhabitants aged 25–34 was 1.9, slightly above the EU average (1.7) but lower than in the innovation leaders, which adversely affects the country’s innovation potential.
4. Performance in reading, mathematics and science (PISA)
In 2018, 15-year-olds in Slovenia achieved good results in mathematics, science and reading. According to the PISA 2018 survey, they score higher than the EU average in all three literacy types, which are an indirect indicator of quality. The SDS target (by 2030), which is to be ranked in the top quarter of EU Member States, was achieved in mathematics and science. Between 2015 and 2018, the performance in science and especially in reading deteriorated, while in mathematics it remained roughly the same. One of the 2020 targets set in the Strategic Framework for European Cooperation in Education and Training is that the share of 15-year-olds with low achievement (below proficiency level 2) in reading, mathematics and science should be less than 15% by 2020 on the respective literacy scale. Slovenia achieved this goal only in science.
Inequalities in the learning achievements of 15-year-olds increased between 2015 and 2018. In 2018, girls achieved better results (in points) than boys in reading and science and the same as boys in mathematics. Fifteen-year-olds with the highest socio-economic status performed better than their peers with the lowest socio-economic status; the gap between the two groups was narrower than the EU average but widened between 2015 and 2018. The share of fifteen-year-olds with the lowest socio-economic status and low reading literacy scores was higher than the share of their peers with the highest status, with the gap being one of the smallest in the EU. Fifteen-year-olds with the lowest status were also more likely to enrol in upper secondary vocational education, including compared to other EU Member States, and had lower expectations of completing tertiary education than their peers with the highest status. Pupils from abroad performed worse in reading than their native peers, the difference between them being larger than on average in the EU.
5. Education expenditure
Public expenditure on education (as a % of GDP) increased in 2017–2020 after several years of decline, but was still below the previous peak; private expenditure was the lowest in ten years, and both public and private expenditure lag behind in international comparison. Public expenditure as a share of GDP fell from 2012 to 2017. In the first few years, the decline was mainly resulting from austerity measures after the global financial crisis, later from changes in social legislation and for demographic reasons. Since 2014, public expenditure has not kept pace with GDP growth. In 2018, it increased again and remained roughly unchanged in 2019. In 2020, public expenditure (especially at the basic education level) increased again and stood at 5.1% of GDP, due to higher expenditure on educational institutions related to increased investment and wage bill for employees. However, it still lagged behind the 2010 peak, with the gap being widest in upper secondary education. According to data for 2018 (latest international data), public expenditure on education was below the EU average of EU Member States that are members of the OECD and much lower than in the economically highly developed countries (Denmark, Sweden, Belgium and Finland), with the gap being widest at the tertiary level. In 2020, private expenditure on education amounted to 0.57% of GDP (the same as the previous year) and was the lowest in ten years and, according to 2018 data, also below the EU-22 average (0.63% of GDP).
Although expenditure (both public and private) per participant in education mostly increased in the last ten years, it remained low in international comparison, which limits opportunities to improve the quality of education. In 2018, the last year for which internationally comparable data are available, it only exceeded the average of EU Member States that are members of the OECD (EU-22) at the lower secondary level (in Slovenia this includes the third triad of basic schools). It lagged the most at the upper secondary school level (the gap was wider in vocational and technical education than in general upper secondary education), where the participation of young people in education is high and public and private expenditures are low.
6. Participation in lifelong learning
The participation of adults (aged 25–64) in lifelong learning declined over the longer term and was below the EU average for the first time in 2020. Since peaking in 2010, it has mostly declined and in 2020, with the outbreak of COVID-19, it fell sharply and slipped below the EU average for the first time, to 8.4% (EU: 9.2%). It has thus moved far away from the target of the Strategic Framework for European Cooperation in Education and Training by 2020 (15%) and even further away from the target of the Resolution on the National Programme of Adult Education in the Republic of Slovenia 2012–2020 and the SDS 2030 target (19%). As in the decade before the epidemic, participation in 2020 was particularly low among people with low levels of education, older people, men and immigrants. The decline in participation in lifelong learning has a negative impact on employment opportunities and social inclusion of adults. From a development perspective, the long-term decline in participation in lifelong learning is unfavourable in all regions.
Broken down by activity status, participation in lifelong learning declined most in 2020 and over the 2010–2020 period among those in employment. The participation of the unemployed and inactive in lifelong learning was below the EU average. Participation also varies among the employed. In the private sector, where the share of low-educated workers is higher, participation in 2020 was lower than in the public sector. Broken down by activity, participation was low in accommodation and food service activities, construction and manufacturing, while the highest level was in education. Lower participation of employed persons in lifelong learning has a negative impact on the achievement of higher competitiveness and the adaptability of workers to changes in the workplace due to digital and green transformation, technological progress, and other development trends. Only in 2020 did the reduced implementation of education and training under the AEP result in lower participation of the unemployed in lifelong learning. In 2020, the smallest decline in participation in lifelong learning was found among the inactive, where it was already low.
7. Attendance at cultural events
The average attendance at cultural events per inhabitant plummeted in 2020. It was highest in 2012, owing to the many events hosted by Maribor, the city that held the European Capital of Culture title that year. In the remaining years it amounted to around 5–6 visits per inhabitant. After increasing for the most part in 2009–2019, the total attendance at cultural events fell by 68.4% in 2020 as the number of cultural events fell sharply. Attendance at cultural events in houses of culture and cultural centres, which had the highest number of visitors among all types of cultural institutions in 2020, also declined as the number of cultural events decreased significantly. The most unfavourable development was that of cinema attendance (-76.2%), of which 5.4% were visits to screenings of Slovenian films. Attendance at musical institutions, which had been declining for several years before the epidemic, and at museums, galleries, theatres and operas, which had fluctuated before the epidemic, also declined. After several years of stagnation, the number of visits to amateur cultural events increased in 2019 and then decreased by 68.5% in 2020.
Before the epidemic, cultural institutions carried out many activities enriching the cultural offer but in 2020 these activities shrunk noticeably. The number of events held by institutions with stage activity fluctuated in 2016–2019; in 2020, it fell by 55.0% (to 11.2 thousand). By type of activity, as in previous years, the highest attendance was recorded for film and video screenings (see Section 2.2), followed by events showing dramatic and other theatre works, and musical events, while the lowest attendance was recorded for ballet events. In 2020, institutions with stage activity performed a good third fewer new works than in the previous year, with a smaller proportion being co-productions with foreign co-producers (5.1%) and a larger proportion with Slovenian co-producers (about two-thirds). There were also fewer festivals organised. The COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 also affected the activities of museums and galleries, which organised 36.5% fewer exhibitions than in the previous year. In addition, some groups of the population (persons with reduced mobility and sensory impairments) face obstacles in accessing institutions with stage activity and museums and thus cultural events.
8. Share of cultural events held abroad
In 2020, the share of cultural events held abroad decreased for the second year in a row. Touring is an indirect indicator of the quality of cultural production, as invitations to perform abroad generally signify recognition of good work. In 2020, the share of cultural events held abroad totalled 2.6%. Due to the COVID-19 containment measures, it was lower compared to the previous year. The share of tours in museums has been declining for several years, while in stage-related activity it declined for the second year in a row in 2020. Among cultural events held abroad, those in the EU accounted for the highest share in 2020, i.e. 85.0%, which is more than in 2019. This indicates the geographical attachment of cultural institutions to this area. Due to the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 epidemic, it is estimated that the number of events held abroad remained modest in 2021.
In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic had a negative impact on hosting foreign events in Slovenia and on cultural production in Slovenia. Visiting events from abroad enrich the offer of cultural events in Slovenia and show the extent of cooperation with cultural institutions from abroad. Due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of visiting events from abroad in institutions with stage activity fell by 85.2% in 2020, the number of visiting exhibitions in museums and galleries fell by 39.0%, and the number of visiting events and exhibitions from Slovenia fell by 60.1%. Cultural production in Slovenia (Indicator 2.7), which is the basis for promoting and publicising culture abroad and attracting visitors from abroad, was also reduced. In 2021, the international Europa Cantat Festival, which took place in Ljubljana, had a positive impact on international cooperation in the field of culture.
1. Healthy life years
In 2019, Slovenia’s lag behind the EU average as regards the healthy life expectancy at birth indicator was smaller than in the past. The SURS (2019) analysis showed that the very low value of this indicator in Slovenia in the past was mainly related to inadequate translation and the method of surveying. The data for 2019 already reflected changes in the survey method, so the results for Slovenia significantly improved. In 2020, the translation of the question was changed, but the data is not yet available. The indicator for 2019 shows that a person born in Slovenia can expect 60.9 years of healthy life, while the EU average is 65 years. Healthy life expectancy at the age of 65 is 8.6 years in Slovenia on average, compared with 10.3 years in the EU. According to the latest results, the number of healthy life years is higher for women than for men, which is similar to the situation in most other EU Member States (previously it was the opposite). Increasing the number of healthy life years, which requires higher investment in preventive care, should make a significant contribution not only to extending the working life of individuals, but also to slower growth in health and long-term care expenditure in the future.
According to the latest data, the lag behind the EU average in the ratio between healthy life years and life expectancy is also significantly smaller. In Slovenia, we had an average of 74.8% healthy life years in 2019 for both genders, which is still below the EU average (79.6%) but significantly better than in previous years. Slovenia’s gap with the EU average is still mainly due to the lower number of healthy life years. The smaller share of years that a person on average spends healthy means more pressure on social protection systems due to early retirement and greater demand for health and long-term care services. The COVID-19 epidemic will bring about major changes in the indicator in the coming years. We can expect that the high number of deaths will lead to a decrease in life expectancy, but it is difficult to predict how this will affect healthy life years.
2. The Gender Equality Index
In 2021, the gender equality index for Slovenia was slightly below the EU average. Until 2017, Slovenia had progressed faster than the majority of EU Member States, but since then it has fallen furthest behind among all Member States, mainly due to a lower score in the area of power (lower political participation of women), and fell below the EU average in 2021. In order to meet the SDS 2030 target (> 78), Slovenia should improve the index value by more than 10 index points in 2021–2030.
Since 2010, Slovenia has achieved the highest scores in the areas of health and money, while gender inequalities have been the most pronounced in the areas of knowledge and power. Men more often than women consider that they are in good or very good health, although women live almost six years longer on average than men. In the field of knowledge, the share of tertiary educated women is still higher than the share of men, and the uneven concentration of women and men in different study fields remains a key challenge. The gender gap is also present in various labour market sectors. The gender gap in the employment rate narrowed, while the pay gap is constant but small compared to other EU Member States (see Section 3.3, IMAD, 2021). Due to the introduction of gender quotas on candidate lists, women’s political participation had increased since 2011, but since 2017 it has decreased again. According to the latest data for 2021, the share of women in the Slovenian Parliament was low (27.8%, EU: 33.2%), and the share of women ministers was even lower (11.1%, EU: 32.3%) (EIGE, 2021c). The COVID-19 epidemic has disproportionately affected women’s quality of life, exacerbating pre-existing gender inequalities and jeopardising progress made in this area. Women were more exposed than men to additional workload and higher health risks (the majority of workers in human health, social work activities and trade are women), increased job insecurity (a large proportion of women are employed in the service sectors most affected by the crisis), difficulties in work/life balance and domestic violence (EIGE, 2021b; EC, 2021a, 2021q; EP, 2021a; Eurofound, 2021c).
3. Life expectancy
In 2020, life expectancy at birth decreased in Slovenia and most other EU Member States due to the epidemic and consequent higher mortality. Life expectancy in Slovenia decreased to the 2013 level. The number of deaths was 18.8% higher than the 2015–2019 average (by about 14.6% in 2021). In Slovenia, a total of 6,131 people died with COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021, 95% of whom were age 65 or older in 2020 and 90% in 2021 (NIJZ, 2022a). As a result, premature mortality continued to decline (2000: 26.7%; 2020: 13.7%), while the average age at death also continued to rise (2000: 71.8 years; 2020: 79.2 years). When trying to determine future trends in life expectancy, the number of indirect deaths related to the unavailability of preventive and emergency health services and psychosocial support remains unknown (OECD and EU, 2020).
Even in the years before the epidemic, the rate of increase in life expectancy at birth in Slovenia and EU slowed. In the period 2002–2019, life expectancy increased by 3.5 months per year on average in Slovenia compared to 2.6 months per year on average in the EU. This was mainly due to the improvement of socio-economic living conditions, higher education, better healthcare and a better lifestyle (OECD, 2017b). However, after 2011, life expectancy gains slowed, mainly due to a slower decline in mortality rates for circulatory diseases, which had been the main reason for life expectancy gains in previous years (OECD and EU, 2018). The severe flu seasons, which mainly affected the elderly (2014/2015, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018) also contributed to the slowdown (OECD and EU, 2020).
Due to the epidemic, life expectancy at birth decreased significantly in 2020 in most regions for the first time since 2011; it remains higher in the Zahodna Slovenija region. Compared to the previous year, it decreased the most among women in the Zasavska region (to the 2015 level) and among men in Jugovzhodna Slovenija (to the 2017 level). Women in the Goriška region (84.4 years) and men in the Osrednjeslovenska region (79.2 years) had the longest life expectancy at birth. Compared to the Vzhodna Slovenija regions, life expectancy in the regions of Zahodna Slovenija, with the exception of the Goriška region, is about one year longer. Premature mortality also continued to decline, especially among men, most markedly in the Koroška region (by 6.5 p.p. to 18.6%), and among women in the Podravska region (by 3.7 p.p. to 9.3%).
4. Unmet needs for healthcare
In 2020, 2.7% of the population in Slovenia had unmet needs for medical examinations, which is significantly above the EU average, the main reason being waiting times. According to the EU-SILC 2020 survey, unmet needs for medical examinations did not increase during the epidemic, despite the cancellation of many health activities and poor accessibility of healthcare. This is probably due to the fact that part of the EU-SILC 2020 survey was conducted before the first wave of the epidemic and only part after the first wave and partly to the fact that many people did not seek medical care at all, even in cases where they should have done so, and therefore did not report unmet needs. The differences between countries are large, both in terms of the proportion of the population reporting unmet needs and in terms of the reasons for unmet needs and income-based inequalities. In contrast to other Member States, respondents in Slovenia cite waiting times rather than financial reasons as the main reason for unmet needs, and the gap between the first and fifth income quintiles of the population is very small. This is related to a broad healthcare benefits basket, which is covered partly by compulsory and partly by complementary health insurance, which ensures good financial accessibility of healthcare, limited by long waiting times for many services. Unmet needs for dental care in Slovenia are also high mainly due to long waiting times in the public dental healthcare network and not due to financial reasons (see Table).
According to the EHIS survey, unmet needs for healthcare in Slovenia in 2019 were significantly higher than the EU average. In 2019, unmet needs for healthcare were reported by as many as 28% of respondents in need of healthcare. According to this survey, the largest share reported problems due to waiting times (22.8%; EU: 19.4%) and a relatively high share of respondents reported unmet needs due to financial reasons (15.6%; EU: 13%). In Slovenia, higher unmet needs are reported by people with higher education and income, which is typical for some countries with high unmet needs due to waiting times. According to the previous EHIS survey from 2014, the share of unmet needs in Slovenia has increased mainly due to waiting times and to some extent also due to financial reasons.
5. Avoidable mortality
In 2011–2018, avoidable mortality in Slovenia decreased twice as fast as the EU average. The rate of avoidable mortality, which consists of (i) preventable mortality that could be avoided through public health and preventive measures and (ii) treatable mortality (avoidable by healthcare), decreased by 57 persons per 100,000 inhabitants in Slovenia in 2011–2018 (in the EU as a whole by 28 persons). Slovenia was very successful particularly in reducing treatable mortality, which declined by 24% in seven years (by 11% on average in the EU).
The rate of preventable mortality decreased in 2018 but is still above the EU average. In 2018, 175 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants could have been avoided in Slovenia by public health measures and preventive measures (160 in the EU in 2017). The higher number of deaths in Slovenia is mainly is associated with a high prevalence of unhealthy lifestyles. The main causes of deaths are lung cancer (smoking) and alcohol-related diseases (both together account for 45% of all preventable deaths). In 2018, the number of deaths decreased significantly due to the successful strengthening of primary prevention interventions focusing on smoking, alcohol consumption, nutrition, physical activity, screening programmes and counselling (OECD/EOHSP, 2021a).
The rate of treatable mortality decreased further slightly in 2018 and was already well below the EU average, which indicates relatively effective healthcare from the aspect of treatment. In 2018, 77 people per 100,000 inhabitants died in Slovenia from causes that could have been avoided through timely and effective healthcare (including through screening programmes and treatment) (EU average: 92). The indicator points to effective healthcare in terms of treatment, particularly with regard to the relatively lower investment in health than in countries that reach comparable results (see also Indicator 3.6). The main causes of deaths are ischemic heart disease, colon and rectal cancer, followed by strokes and breast cancer. In all countries, the indicator is significantly worse for men than for women.
6. Healthcare expenditure
Health expenditure increased significantly in 2020 due to the epidemic. Slovenia entered the epidemic with an underfunded and understaffed health system, as health expenditure declined sharply during the global financial crisis. In 2013–2019, growth averaged only 2.6% per year, lagging behind the EU average (3.0%). In 2017–2019, the transmission of the financing of medical practitioners and traineeships to the state budget contributed to the additional revenues of the HIIS. However, given the increasing demand, this additional budgetary resource was not sufficient for the health system, leading to a rapid increase in waiting times and thus unmet needs (see Indicator 3.4). In 2020, most of the costs of dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic were covered by the state budget (EUR 298 million, i.e. 0.64% of GDP according to the first estimate). According to the preliminary estimate by OECD (2022b), total government scheme (state budget) expenditure as a share in total current health expenditure increased from 4.2% in 2019 (EUR 174 million) to as much as 9.7% in 2020 (EUR 437 million), and the share of total current public expenditure increased from 72.8% to 75.2%.
In 2021, the contribution from the state budget for healthcare related to the costs of dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic doubled compared to 2020. According to the Ministry of Health and HIIS (Ministry of Health, personal email, 24 March 2022; HIIS, 2022), a total of EUR 811.3 million (1.56% of GDP) was allocated in 2021 to combat the COVID-19 epidemic: EUR 306.9 million was paid directly by the Ministry of Health to healthcare providers to cover crisis allowances, an additional EUR 211.4 million was paid directly through the HIIS to cover various costs related to preventing the spread of the epidemic, and EUR 179.1 million was transferred from the budget to the HIIS to cover part of the HIIS expenditure related to the COVID-19 (EUR 293 million in total). According to the first estimate, EUR 697.4 million, i.e. 1.3% of GDP, was allocated from the state budget for the management of the epidemic in 2021 (see Section 3.1, Box 6).
7. Expenditure on long-term care
In 2019, the share of public expenditure on long-term care (LTC) increased significantly, but as a share of GDP it is still far below the EU average. In the structure broken down by financing schemes, the share of public expenditure on LTC in Slovenia increased sharply after two years of decline. Broken down by function, the share of expenditure on the health component of LTC, which is mainly financed from public sources, increased. The main reason for the increase in public expenditure was the adoption of the Personal Assistance Act (ZOA, 2019), which significantly increased public financing for LTC at home. The growth of private expenditure was also very high, mainly due to the rising costs of nursing home care. International comparison shows that public expenditure for LTC in 2019 in the 22 EU Member States for which data are available averaged 1.3% of GDP, in contrast to still only 1.0% in Slovenia. In 2008–2019, expenditure on LTC as a share of GDP increased at a far slower pace than the average of EU and OECD countries. There are large differences between countries in the level of public expenditure on LTC, with the Scandinavian countries, Netherlands and Belgium standing out (at 2 to 4% of GDP). In addition to the different levels of development, these large differences also reflect differences in LTC systems, the impact of demographic factors and life patterns, particularly regarding the role of family and informal care (see IMAD, 2021a).
In Slovenia, formal LTC is still mainly implemented as institutional care, which is expected to change by the LTC Act, which was adopted at the end of 2021. In Slovenia, almost three-quarters of total expenditure on LTC is spent on institutional care in nursing homes (69%) and hospitals (4%), which is more than in most of the 21 OECD members for which data are available (OECD, 2021i). At the end of 2021, the LTC Act was passed to ensure, among other things, faster development of LTC at home and the introduction of new services to strengthen and maintain independence, co-finance e-care services at home, and improve the status of home care assistants (see Section 3.2., Box 9).
8. Overweight and obesity
The share of overweight or obese adults in Slovenia increased over the 2014–2019 period and was above the EU average. In most EU Member States, the share of the population that is overweight or obese is lower among those with high education and higher among those with low education; in Slovenia, the difference is smaller than the EU average. The proportion of overweight or obese women is lower than the proportion of overweight or obese men. However, the reverse was true for those with low education in Slovenia in 2019. The proportion of overweight or obese adults in Slovenia and the EU average increased by 1.6 p.p. over the period studied, and the gap by educational attainment narrowed, mainly due to a lower number of overweight or obese men. Compared to the last survey from 2014, the share of overweight or obese people decreased the most among men with low levels of education, while it increased the most among women with high levels of education. Broken down by educational groups, the largest increase was observed among those with upper secondary education (from 19.2% in 2007 to 23.0% in 2019). According to the latest survey, Slovenia diverges from the EU average particularly in the prevalence of obesity in men with a high level of education and women with a low level of education. A high share of overweight or obese people can be associated with poor eating habits and excessive alcohol consumption. As much as 9% of adults, more men than women, consume sugary drinks daily, and in 2019 the average annual alcohol consumption per capita was 11.1 litres, which is significantly more than the EU average (2018: 10 litres). Overweight and obesity, usually a consequence of excessive food intake and insufficient physical activity, are important risk factors for the development of chronic health conditions and premature mortality. Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of mortality in Slovenia and indeed in most developed countries. Obesity can, moreover, have not only medical but also socio-economic consequences (social exclusion, lower income, higher unemployment, more working days lost and early retirement). Research shows that obesity also increases the risk of severe illness and death due to COVID-19 (Katz, 2021). According to OECD model calculations (2019), life expectancy will be 2.7 years lower on average over the 2020–2050 period due to overweight; the cost of treating obesity-related diseases will amount to more than 8% of total health expenditure; due to the economic and social consequences, GDP will be 3.3% lower on average in OECD countries and 3.1% lower in Slovenia. Combating overweight and obesity therefore requires more targeted and restrictive measures than in the past: promotion of healthy diets and physical activity, taxes on high fat and high sugar foods, nutritional labelling of foods, agreements with the food industry to improve the nutritional value of products, and the introduction of physical activity prescription by general practitioners.
9. At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate
The at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate calculated according to the new methodology (see Section 3.2, Box 7) decreased in Slovenia in 2015–2019 and increased slightly in 2020. According to the EU-SILC 2020 survey, which was based on 2019 income and covered only part of the first wave of the epidemic, a total of 259,000 people were at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion in Slovenia (14.3%). The at-risk-of-poverty rate and severe material and social deprivation rate increased (both by 0.4 p.p.), while the very low work intensity rate decreased (by 0.4 p.p.). Slovenia continues to have the lowest at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate in the EU among those aged under 18 (12.2%, EU: 24.2%), which corresponds to about 47,000 children and young people, while the at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate is higher than average among those aged 65 or more (21.0%; EU: 20.3%). The at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate remains above the national and EU average in single-person households (46.8%; EU: 31.8%) and among women aged 75 and over (30.4%; EU: 24.9%). The risk is also high among those with low education, people with long-term limitations in activities of daily living and a number of other groups (see Section 3.2).
The at-risk-of-poverty rate, which was one of the lowest in the EU in 2017–2019, increased slightly in 2020, and the Court of Auditors and a number of other organisations point out that the most socially disadvantaged groups have not been successfully targeted. In 2020, every eighth person lived below the poverty line (12.4%, EU: 17.1%). Broken down by age, the highest at-risk-of-poverty rate was seen in the age group of people aged 60 and over (19.4%; EU: 17.1%), especially among women (25.9%; EU: 19.0%), reaching the highest level since 2005. 10.5% of children, 19.5% of pensioners, 5% of employed persons, 43.4% of unemployed persons, and 19.6% of other inactive or unclassified persons lived below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. In terms of the type of household, single-person households were at above-average risk of poverty (39.7%, EU: 26.5%), with the risk significantly higher for single women (42.1%, EU: 27.6%) than for single men (36.6%; EU: 25.2%). The Court of Auditors (2021d), Human Rights Ombudsman (2021), the IRSSV (2021) and 19 non-governmental organisations (EAPN, 2021) draw attention to the failure to take care of the most vulnerable groups of the population, whose poverty and hardship are increasing.
10. Inequality of income distribution
The values of income inequality indicators (Gini coefficient and quintile class ratios) in Slovenia continue to be among the lowest in the EU. The EU-SILC 2020 survey is based on 2019 income and therefore does not yet reflect the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on income inequality. The low income inequality in Slovenia is mainly due to progressive taxation and, to some extent, to social transfers. In 2020, the top 20% of households in Slovenia received 3.3 times as much income as the bottom 20%, which was within the SDS target for four years in a row and is equal for both sexes. Even for people aged 65 and over, the income ratio is 3.3, which is noticeably closer to the EU average (4.5) than for those under 65 (5.4). A further breakdown of income distribution in Slovenia for 2020 showed that the gap between the fifth and third quintiles was 1.81 (EU: 2.19) and was slightly lower than the gap between the third and first quintiles, which was 1.84 (EU: 2.32) (SURS, 2022; calculations by IMAD). The poorest fifth of households accounted for around a tenth of total disposable income, while the wealthiest fifth accounted for a third.
In 2008–2020, the inequality of income distribution changed only marginally both in Slovenia and in the EU as a whole. The quintile share ratio (80/20) in Slovenia was slightly lower than that in 2008, according to the latest available data. Inequality of income distribution increased slightly in 2009–2014, mainly due to the onset of the global financial crisis and the adoption of austerity measures following it. In 2014, it started to decline again with the rapid growth of economic activity and the phasing out of austerity measures. Similar movements for Slovenia are also indicated by the most commonly used measure of income inequality, the Gini coefficient. In 2020, the Gini coefficient was 0.235, slightly above the 2008 value and below the 2014 peak.
11. Experience of discrimination
According to internationally comparable Eurobarometer data, the share of people who experienced discrimination or harassment decreased over the 2015–2019 period and is within the SDS target. In 2019 (the latest available data), 9% of respondents felt discriminated against, which is one of the lowest shares in the EU. Among them, the share of those who felt discriminated against at work was the highest (33%; EU: 21%). The most frequently given reasons for discrimination were age, gender, religion or beliefs, and general physical appearance (all 2%). Discrimination on the grounds of disability, ethnic origin, sexual orientation, social class, political opinions, skin colour or being Roma was experienced by 1% of respondents. Though discrimination was below the EU average in terms of most personal circumstances, it was as common as the EU average in terms of sexual orientation, religion or belief, and being Roma. In Slovenia and the EU overall, the share of respondents discriminated against on the basis of age declined the most compared with 2015. Experience of discrimination was more frequently mentioned by individuals who considered themselves being part of a minority group.
According to research by the Advocate of the Principle of Equality, the share of the population in Slovenia that has experienced discrimination is significantly higher and increased over the 2017–2020 period. In 2020, 22% of respondents felt discriminated against, which is 5 p.p. more than in 2017 (Advocate of the Principle of Equality, 2017b and 2021c). This was also influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic and the measures taken to contain the spread of the virus, which caused many fears and concerns among the population. Of those who felt discriminated against, more than half said that they felt discriminated against at work and when looking for a job (52%), followed by discrimination while receiving healthcare (17%), and in the provision of goods and services (15%). Most frequently mentioned reasons for discrimination were age (22%), education (20%), political opinions (16%), disability (14%), gender (12%) and social status (11%). Of those who felt discriminated against, the majority (80%) did not initiate proceedings to protect their rights, mostly because they believed it would not change anything (Advocate of the Principle of Equality, 2021c). Therefore a good awareness of people’s rights in the event of discrimination and the constant efforts of the government to eliminate all forms of discrimination are important.
The most frequent circumstances cited by persons who felt discriminated against in EU Member States, 2019
12. Median equivalised disposable income
In terms of the median equivalised disposable income (EDI), Slovenia was in the middle of the EU Member States. The strong growth in 2008 and 2009 was followed by a period of negative or low growth (2010–2013) as a result of lower economic activity, austerity measures (the ZUJF and ZUPJS) and changes in the allocation of transfers (ZSVarPre), which reduced the equivalised disposable income and thus its median value. After the recovery of economic activity (2014–2019) and phasing out of austerity measures after the global financial crisis, the median EDI in Slovenia gradually increased, which contributed to the improvement in the living standard of the population. In 2020, it reached the highest level in real terms in the entire period.
After several years of slow growth in the median ERD for those over 65, growth has increased markedly in the last two years. The increase in the median EDI in 2010–2020 (25.9%) was larger than the EU average (21.5%), with the working population in the 18–64 age group reaching the highest level in both Slovenia and the EU, as expected. The median EDI of the age group of 18 and under is similar to the total EDI, which is mainly a result of policies to protect the material well-being of children and young people in Slovenia. The median EDI of those aged 65 and over was lowest up to and including 2018, mainly because the increase in the average pension was very modest. After a significant increase in the average pension, the median EDI for this age group has also seen a strong increase in the last two years. Over the period 2010–2020, the increase in median income for those with a high level of education was significantly lower than that of those with lower and upper secondary education. This was influenced by the progressive reduction in public sector wages during the fiscal consolidation period (2013) and by an increase in the share of young people with tertiary education employed in jobs requiring upper secondary or lower level education (see Section 2). The gap in Slovenia’s median EDI in PPS compared to Austria, which is at the top in terms of income, narrowed in 2015–2019, reaching 27% in 2020. The gap was larger for those with upper secondary education (29%) and especially for those over 65 (36%).
13. Life satisfaction
In 2021, life satisfaction in Slovenia was higher than in 2020 but lower than in 2019. Life satisfaction in Slovenia has been above the EU average since measurements began (in 2004), but the gap has narrowed since 2017, when it was the widest. At the level of the EU average, in the summer of 2021 the share of those satisfied was the highest ever (85%), as was the share of those who were satisfied with the household financial situation (74%) and those who expressed optimistic expectations about the household financial situation (25%). In 2021, satisfaction increased the most in Member States with the lowest satisfaction before the COVID-19 epidemic (Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Italy, Portugal, Croatia and Hungary) but remained below the EU average. In 2021, Slovenia ranked one place better among EU Member States than in the previous year, i.e. 10th.
In 2021, the level of satisfaction with the personal employment situation in Slovenia was the highest recorded (69%). Satisfaction with one’s own financial situation, which reached its highest level in 2020 (74%), fell below the 2019 level (73%) in 2021 (72%). At the national level, in the summer of 2021, the shares of those satisfied with the employment and economic situation were higher than in 2020 but lower than in 2019 (both by 7 p.p.). The shares of respondents who are optimistic about the personal employment situation, the household financial situation and the employment situation in the country also declined (the first two by 5 p.p. and the last by 2 p.p.), while the share of those who are optimistic about the economic situation in the country was 1 p.p. higher than in 2019.
When asked about two main problems, Slovenian respondents cited health as the most important problem at all three levels (personal, state and EU), while the EU average cited the economic situation as the most urgent problem. At the personal level, the main concern of Slovenian respondents in 2021 was still health (31%), followed by inflation and living costs (27%) and living conditions (22%). At the national level, Slovenian respondents in 2021 again pointed to health (47%) as the most important problem, followed by the economic situation (30%) and inflation and living costs (26%), which increased the most compared to autumn 2019 (by 14 p.p.). At the EU level, Slovenian respondents cited health (34%), the economic situation (28%) and immigration (26%) as the most pressing problems. On average in the EU, respondents pointed to the economic situation (27%) as the most important problem, followed by immigration and climate change (both 25%) and only then by health and the public finances of the Member States (both 22%).
14. Social protection expenditure
Slovenia lags behind the EU average in terms of social protection expenditure as a share of GDP and in purchasing power standards (PPS) per capita. As a share of GDP, it was around 4.9 p.p. below the EU average in 2008–2019. In PPS per capita, Slovenia achieved 67.2% of average EU social protection expenditure in 2019. Since the 2008 crisis (72.9%), this share has decreased due to austerity measures and the implementation of new social legislation, reaching its lowest level in 2016 (66.2%; simple average in 2008–2019: 68.6%). Among the individual expenditure areas, Slovenia spent slightly more than the EU average on expenditure on social exclusion n.e.c. (i.e. expenditure on the poorest) in 2008–2019, followed by expenditure on sickness and healthcare (only 79.1% of the EU average).
The major part of social protection expenditure in Slovenia and in the EU is intended for old age and sickness/healthcare. Slovenia spends slightly more on these two expenditure categories than the EU average. In 2019, it spent 40.4% (EU: 38.6%) on old age and 33.5% (EU: 28.3%) on sickness/healthcare. Expenditure on old age has increased in recent years due to pension adjustments (since 2016 and especially since 2018, when adjustments were higher), guaranteed pensions and their increases in 2017, and the increase in the number of beneficiaries, which has been more moderate after the last reform. Expenditure on sickness/healthcare has increased due to higher expenditure on healthcare (see Indicator 3.6) and on sickness benefits (see Indicator 3.22). In 2019, the third largest transfer in Slovenia (8.2%) and the EU (8%) was intended for families and children. Compared to the EU average (2.2%), Slovenia (3.5%) spends a larger share of total expenditure on social exclusion n.e.c. It spends a lower share than the EU average in the areas of disability, unemployment and housing. The share of expenditure on disability has been declining for a long period, mainly due to a lower number of beneficiaries of disability pensions (according to the ZPIZ, their number was 15% lower in 2019 than in 2009). In the area of unemployment, the share of unemployment benefit beneficiaries among the unemployed is low compared to other EU Member States. The relatively low expenditure on housing (mainly on subsidised rents) is to a great extent attributable to the very high share of owner-occupied dwellings and the relatively poorly developed rental housing market.
15. Housing deprivation rate
Slovenia has a relatively high housing deprivation (HD) rate and a relatively low severe housing deprivation (SHD) rate compared to other EU Member States. In 2020, more than a fifth of the population lived in poor housing conditions, which is one of the largest shares in the EU. Compared to 2014, the HD rate fell by 9.1 p.p. Although this is a much larger decrease than the EU average (1.6 p.p.) the HD rate in Slovenia is still 6.8 p.p. above the EU average. A good quarter of households facing housing deprivation live in the Pomurska, Obalno-kraška, Zasavska and Posavska regions. This is mainly due to the old and poorly maintained housing stock in Slovenia, as more than 80% of dwellings were built before 1990. In 2016–2020, only about 4,000 dwellings were built in total, the most in Osrednjeslovenska and Obalno-kraška and the least in the Zasavska region. Nevertheless, the SHD rate (3.1%), which is also declining, is below the EU average (4.2%), even among households below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (6.5%, EU: 9.2%).
Compared to the EU average, housing costs in Slovenia were not high in 2020 and they were also below the EU average for households below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. The housing cost overburden rate, which had decreased since 2014, increased slightly in 2020 (to 4.4%) but is still more than half lower than the EU average (10%). Of households below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, 23.1% were overburdened with housing costs (EU: 38.4%). In 2020, 30% of people in households below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold lived in poor housing conditions, most often households with elderly members (in the Goriška and Pomurska regions) who are less able to make renovations. From the point of view of ownership, tenants who pay rent at the market price continue to be the most overburdened with housing costs. Their share decreased by 10.4 p.p. in the period from 2016 to 2020 (EU: 1.2 p.p.) and fell below the EU average (to 18.6%; EU: 25.8%).
16. Material and income deprivation
In 2015–2019, the level of (serious) material and social deprivation decreased significantly in Slovenia and the EU; in 2020, serious material and social deprivation increased slightly in Slovenia; the latest provisional data for 2021 indicate a significant improvement. According to the new measurement methodology (see Section 3.2, Box 7), the decline in material and social deprivation in Slovenia was higher than the EU average in the period 2015–2019, while the decline in severe material and social deprivation was slightly lower. According to EU-SILC 2020, which only partially reflects the impact of the first wave of the epidemic on the living conditions of the population, the material and social deprivation rate remained stable and the severe material and social deprivation rate increased slightly; both remained low compared to the EU average, placing Slovenia 10th among Member States. Provisional EU-SILC data for 2021 show that the severe material and social deprivation rate in Slovenia decreased by 1 p.p. or by around 20,000 people (to 1.6%), the lowest level since 2015 (Inglič et al., 2022).
The financial and material situation of households in Slovenia has gradually improved since 2015 but remains below the EU average. At the beginning of the epidemic, households’ financial distress worsened somewhat but remained relatively stable, while in 2021 they improved significantly. In 2019 and 2020, 20% of households estimated that it was difficult to make ends meet, compared to only 13% in 2021; the share of households that had no difficulty making ends meet also increased significantly (Inglič et al., 2022; Inglič et al., 2021; SURS, 2022b). Eurofound surveys (2020a, 2020b and 2021a) have shown that subjective perceptions of households’ financial fragility in early 2021 improved the most in Slovenia and Ireland and worsened in Finland and Austria. Other surveys also show that the financial situation in Slovenia has been relatively stable since 2019 and that it improved in 2021 but also that the financial and material situation of households remains below the EU average (Demertzis et al., 2020; ECB, 2020; Midões, 2020). The European Commission (EC, 2021l) notes that the financial situation of the poorest households in Slovenia improved more than the EU average last year.
Households’ financial distress* in the lowest income quartile
17. Employment rate
After several years of increase, the employment rate (20–64 years) decreased in 2020 due to the COVID-19 epidemic and was at a similar level in the second quarter of 2021 as in 2019. Along with economic growth and increased demand for labour, demographic trends also contributed to the increase in employment activity in the period 2013–2019. The rising trend in employment was interrupted in 2020 by the COVID-19 epidemic, which led to a significant drop in employment rates in the second quarter of 2020. In 2021, in a situation of rapid economic recovery, employment has already reached a similar level to the second quarter of 2019 and would be even higher without the methodology change. The employment rate of young people was still significantly lower than before the epidemic, as demand for student work fell sharply after the outbreak of the epidemic (more precisely in the second quarter of 2020). The employment rate among older working-age adults (55–64 years) increased slightly in 2020 despite the crisis and continued to increase in 2021, narrowing the gap with the EU average (to 5.2 p.p. in the second quarter) and no longer being among the lowest in the EU. After several years of growth, the employment level of those with low levels of education fell sharply due to the COVID-19 crisis, so that despite the increase, it still lagged behind the pre-crisis level in 2021. This was due to the high proportion of low-educated workers in the sectors that were most affected by the containment measures.
After falling since the outbreak of the epidemic, the employment rate rose again in most regions in 2021 and was already above the 2019 level in some regions. In the second quarter of 2021, the largest year-on-year increase was recorded in the Obalno-kraška region (by 5.9 p.p.), which experienced the sharpest decline in economic activity (see Indicator 1.8) and employment rate in 2020. Employment was already higher than in 2019, mainly in the Vzhodna Slovenija regions. The largest increase compared to the 2019 level was recorded by the Primorsko-notranjska region and the largest decrease by the Vzhodna Slovenija region. Employment was above the Slovenian average in the Osrednjeslovenska, Gorenjska and Goriška regions.
18. In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate
The rate of in-work at-risk-of-poverty, which had fallen sharply in 2019, increased slightly in 2020 but still remained among the lowest in the EU. According to EU-SILC 2020 survey (based on 2019 income), the rate of in-work at-risk-of-poverty among employed persons aged 18–64 in Slovenia increased by 0.5 p.p. in 2020 and, as in previous years, was well below the EU average (9.3%). For employees, it declined over the period 2015–2020 and amounted to 3.2% in 2020. For the self-employed, it was again relatively high in 2020 (21.2%) after a sharp decline in 2019. Thus there was a higher overall rate of in-work at-risk-of-poverty. The in-work at-risk-of-poverty rate for men is higher than for women in most Member States. This does not reflect the gender wage gap, although wages are the main source of household income. The at-risk-of-poverty rate for employees in Slovenia is the highest among the low-educated. Broken down by education level, the rate decreased over the period 2010–2020 only for those with low education (by 2.6 p.p.), while it was slightly higher in 2020 than in 2010 for those with upper secondary or higher education.
As in other countries, the in-work at-risk-of-poverty rate is much higher for temporary and part-time workers than for full-time and permanent employees. The at-risk-of-poverty rate for temporary workers in Slovenia has decreased over the last ten years, while it has remained at a similar level for those on permanent employment contracts. The at-risk-of-poverty rate for temporary workers fell from 7.5% in 2010 to 4.8% in 2020, while for permanent workers it was the same in 2010 as in 2020 (3%). Slovenia was one of the countries with the largest reduction in the at-risk-of-poverty rate of temporary workers in the period 2010–2020. The at-risk-of-poverty rate for part-time workers in Slovenia in 2020 was 10.9% and for full-time workers 4.5%, which is in line with the EU average.
19. Unemployment and long-term unemployment rates
After a long period of decline, the unemployment rate increased at the beginning of the epidemic and returned to near 2019 levels in the second quarter of 2021. In 2014–2019, it declined as employment increased; it declined the most among those with low levels of education and the decline was similar for men and women. The focus of active labour market policy on young people and the increased volume of student work to 2019 contributed to a rapid decline in youth unemployment (15–24 years). Due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the sharp decline in economic activity as a result of the containment measures, unemployment rose in 2020, most sharply in the second quarter, but the increase was much smaller than it would have been without the job-retention measures. The highest increase was seen among those with low levels of education and women, as they were employed in the sectors most affected by the crisis. Broken down by age, the sharp decline in economic activity due to the epidemic has hit young people (15–24 years) in the labour market the hardest, especially due to a sharp drop in student work. In a situation of rapid economic recovery and growing demand for labour in the second half of 2020, unemployment fell again and in the second quarter of 2021 reached the level of the same period in 2019; this applies to all three education groups. The youth unemployment rate did not yet fall significantly in the second quarter of 2021 but still remained one of the lowest in the EU at 14.2%.
The long-term unemployment rate has not changed significantly in the last three years. After a sharp increase during the global financial crisis, the situation initially improved during the period of economic growth only for those with shorter unemployment duration, but since 2015, in the context of high demand for labour, the number of the long-term unemployed has also declined. With the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, the long-term unemployment rate in Slovenia increased slightly, while the EU average fell. In the second quarter of 2021, long-term unemployment in Slovenia remained roughly unchanged, while it increased significantly in the EU, which means that the rate in Slovenia was again below the EU average. The share of long-term unemployed in the total number of unemployed, however, remained higher than the EU average.
20. Temporary and precarious employment
The share of temporary employment, which had increased since 2013 and decreased in 2018–2020, increased again in 2021. The share of temporary employment increased in 2014–2017 with the rise in economic activity. Before the outbreak of the epidemic (in 2018 and 2019), the decline in the share of temporary employment was mainly due to labour shortage caused by demographic factors. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, companies responded to the crisis by not renewing fixed-term contracts, reducing the amount of student work and employment of agency workers. Given the high demand for labour in the second quarter of 2021, the share of temporary employment among young people in the 15–29 age group in Slovenia and many other countries was already higher than before the crisis. In Slovenia, the share of temporary employment among young people is higher than average due to the existence and increase of student work, the volume of which was significantly higher in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, as the containment measures were less stringent. In most countries, temporary work is most common among young people, women and the low-skilled.
The share of precarious employment has been decreasing since 2017 and remained slightly above the EU average. In 2020 (the latest available data), it was 2.5% in Slovenia, which is the lowest since 2000. In the EU, it has ranged between 2.0% and 2.5% over the past decade. The decline in precarious employment was due to labour shortages forcing employers to offer more permanent positions and, in 2020, to the sharp drop in demand for labour due to the COVID-19 crisis.
21. Activity rate
The increase in the activity rate was temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 but already reached the pre-crisis level again in 2021. Until the beginning of 2020, the activity rate had gradually increased, due to favourable economic conditions and thus greater employment opportunities, which also attracted to the labour market those people who normally have greater difficulty finding a job. In the second quarter of 2020, it decreased significantly, which was related to measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, i.e. the shutting down of activities, social distancing, temporary inability to find employment and transition to inactivity. The last was mainly the case for women, probably due to the sectors affected, as mainly activities which predominantly employ women were shut down, such as accommodation and food service activities, creative, arts and entertainment activities, and initially also trade. With a gradual opening of activities and the rapid increase in demand for labour, the activity rate quickly returned to pre-crisis levels in 2021.
In 2021, the number of inactive people was similar to pre-COVID-19-crisis levels. In the second quarter of 2020, the number of inactive people aged 20–64 in Slovenia increased by 8.7% compared to the same period in 2019, while it increased by 7.4% in the EU as a whole. This indicates a similar adjustment of the labour force in the labour market in many countries through a transition into inactivity due to the shut-down of activities. The number of inactive persons increased the most in Ireland, Spain and Italy. However, economic activity and increased labour demand brought both the activity rate and the number of inactive persons back to pre-crisis levels in most countries in the second quarter.
Although the activity rate in the population aged 25–54 is generally high (92.4%), it is much lower among low-skilled people and among older people. In the last decade, Slovenia has had a low activity rate of older people (55–64 years), which is gradually increasing, and of people with low levels of education, and these two groups often overlap. This is partly related to the educational structure of the population, as the share of people with low levels of education is higher in the older age groups than in the younger ones, and to the relatively early retirement or transition to inactivity. The activity rate in both groups is also much lower in Slovenia than the EU average.
22. Absence from work due to illness
In 2021, absence from work increased sharply again in Slovenia. The rapid increase in 2014–2019 can be linked to employment growth, later retirement, longer waiting times in the health sector and the ageing of the working population. Absence from work due to illness was significantly higher among women, and the gap is widening every year, which can be partly explained by the increasing participation of children in kindergartens, full-time employment of women and their absence to care for parents due to the poorly functioning long-term care system (informal caregivers being mostly women). In 2020, the increase in absenteeism slowed somewhat due to lower employment and epidemic-related measures (school closures, temporary layoffs and work from home). In 2021, it increased sharply again, related to a high number of COVID-19 infections, isolation of people with COVID-19 (the number of days lost doubled compared to 2020) and also a significant increase in employment. According to National Institute for Public Health (NIJZ) data, employed persons were absent from work for an average of 17.9 calendar days in 2020, the share of absence from work due to illness averaging 4.9%, which is the same as in 2019 but significantly higher than the lowest level in 2014 (see table). According to the NIJZ’s preliminary estimate, the total percentage of absence from work due to illness rose to 5.1% in 2021. In particular, the proportion of absenteeism whose costs are covered by the HIIS has increased and has been rising rapidly since 2015 (in 2008, the proportion covered by the HIIS was 46% and in 2021 it was already 60%) (HIIS, 2022).
In terms of working days lost per employee, Slovenia exceeds the EU average. The number of working days lost per employed person due to illness, as reported to international databases (excluding the first day of absence and absence to care for a family member), had also risen in recent years (until 2019). In 2019, the average number of compensated work days lost per year due to illness totalled 13.6 in Slovenia and 12.4 in the 23 EU Member States for which comparable data are available. However, it should be noted that the international comparability of this indicator is limited because of methodological differences in data capture and differences in the health and social care systems and in eligibility criteria for sickness benefits.
1. Emission productivity
In 2020, the first year of the epidemic, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fell to their lowest level in two decades amid lower economic activity. After declining during the global financial crisis, they increased slightly in 2015–2017 but declined again in the following three years, amounting to 15.8 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2020. This was 7.3% less than a year before and 14.8% less than in 2000. As expected, the largest decrease in GHG emissions in 2020 was observed in the transport sector, which is the main source of emissions along with the energy sector, and in industrial processes and waste management. In the ETS sector, where they have decreased faster over the long term and contribute about 40% to total emissions, GHG emissions were 3% lower. In the non-ETS sector (including transport), where they have decreased more slowly over the long term, they fell more sharply in 2020, by one-tenth. According to the first quarterly estimates, total emissions rose again in 2021 as economic activity recovered: in the first three quarters, they were about 5% higher than in the same period of 2020 (about 8% higher in the EU), but still lower than in the same period of 2019.
Emission productivity, which is relatively low in Slovenia, has increased since the global financial crisis, but the gap with the EU average remains largely unchanged. Productivity growth as measured by the ratio of GDP to GHG emissions accelerated again, as it did in the EU as a whole, after stalling during the 2008–2014 global financial crisis. It also increased in 2020, when economic growth declined, while the decline in emissions was even more pronounced. In 2014–2019, around one-tenth less GDP was generated per unit of GHG emissions than in the EU overall. According to preliminary estimates, this gap narrowed to about 8% in 2020.
2. Energy efficiency
While primary energy consumption had declined in the years following the global financial crisis, mainly due to lower coal consumption, its decline during the COVID-19 epidemic mainly reflects lower energy consumption in transport. After a period of lower economic activity in 2009–2013, changes in thermal power generation and in some years lower demand for heating, the development after 2014 was influenced not only by rising energy consumption in transport, but also by several other factors. Among the most important factors are the annual river level fluctuations and the schedule of regular overhauls at the nuclear power plant. In 2019, total primary energy consumption fell more sharply again, also influenced by deceleration of economic activity (with lower consumption of solid and liquid fuels). In 2020, it fell even more given the sharp decline in economic activity. Total primary energy consumption fell by about 6% that year, with consumption in transport falling by 18%. Movements in energy efficiency involving a reduction or at least a limitation of the increase in energy consumption were thus favourable also due to the lower activity in the two crises mentioned above (in 2009 and 2020), while Slovenia had fewer problems meeting the Europe 2020 Strategy targets for both primary and final energy consumption. According to our estimates, energy consumption increased slightly again in 2021 in view of the economic recovery.
Over the long term, energy productivity increased at a slightly faster pace than in the EU as a whole. Growth in energy productivity (defined as the ratio of generated GDP to total energy consumption) only came to a halt in the first years of the financial crisis and in 2011 it was thus almost a fifth below the EU average. In 2019, with higher GDP growth, it increased more in Slovenia than in the EU as a whole. As a result, the gap in this comparison narrowed to almost 10%, the lowest since 2000, rising to 12% in 2020, with energy consumption in Slovenia falling less than in the EU in relative terms. Energy productivity is expected to have increased in 2021, as GDP is expected to have grown faster than energy consumption.
Since 2005, final energy consumption has also decreased at about the same pace as in the EU as a whole. Final energy consumption, which had declined since 2008, has increased again since 2014. In the industry sector, it declined mainly due to the modernisation of aluminium production, but it has increased again in recent years due to economic growth. Household energy consumption, on the other hand, has decreased as a result of occasionally higher temperatures during the heating season, the installation of heat cost allocators, more efficient heating appliances and the energy renovation of buildings. In the transport sector, it increased owing to increased transit after EU enlargements and then fluctuated for several years. In 2019 and especially in 2020, the first year of the epidemic, the significantly lower consumption in the transport sector was the main reason for the lower final energy consumption.
3. Share of renewable energy sources
The share of renewable energy sources (RES) in final energy consumption has increased only modestly since 2005 (i.e. the period analysed). Slovenia is one of the few EU Member States that did not reach the target use of RES in 2020. The share of RES consumption increased more strongly in 2009, amid a fall in overall final energy consumption during the global financial crisis and almost unchanged RES consumption, which was also the case in 2020 during the epidemic. In both years, the share of RES consumption increased by more than 2 p.p. In the years between the two crises, it fluctuated with regard to RES consumption for heating (the impact of milder winters) and the use of hydropower (the impact of annual river flows), but there was no significant increase. Total RES consumption in Slovenia rose the least among all EU Member States in 2005–2020, by 6% (in the EU, by 92% on average). Despite the increase in the share last year, Slovenia is one of the four EU Member States that did not reach the 2020 target of 25% share of RES in final consumption. With such dynamics, the targets for the coming years are also very distant. For 2021, we estimate that the share of RES slightly decreased amid higher use of liquid (fossil) fuels and slightly lower use of hydropower (however, data on the use of wood is not yet available).
Slovenia has a high share of traditional and a low share of other renewable sources in total RES consumption. Traditional RES (solid biomass and hydropower) still account for well above 80% of total RES consumption in Slovenia, compared with well below 60% in the EU overall. The extensive use of biomass for heating is generally desirable, but if biomass is not properly managed, it can also be unfavourable from the aspect of particle pollution. The share of other RES (wind, solar and geothermal energy, biofuels, heat pumps, and biogas), however, is among the lowest in the EU. The gap is the widest in the use of wind farms: their share in Slovenia is 0.002% compared to the EU average of 15.4%.
Within the support scheme for electricity generation from RES, support for solar power plants has predominated since 2010. Support for solar power plants accounted for 61%, support for biomass power plants for 20% and support for biogas power plants for 11% of all support in 2021. The rest was dedicated to hydropower plants. The amount of support per unit of electricity generated was highest for solar power plants. Total support, which had decreased significantly in 2019, increased slightly and amounted to around EUR 105 million in 2021.
4. Modal split of transport
Owing to Slovenia’s transit location, road freight traffic is very heavy, but as a lot of freight is also transported by rail, the share of road transport is lower than in the EU as a whole. Over a longer period, the share of road transport declined slightly, to less than two-thirds, while it increased slightly on average in the EU, to more than three-quarters. In 2005–2019, the volume of road freight transport increased by one-third and that of rail transport by two-thirds, which is significantly more than in the EU as a whole, where they increased by 11% and 3% respectively. From the environmental perspective, a high growth of road transport is less desirable. Road freight transport increased in Slovenia particularly due to the rising transit traffic – more than three-quarters of transport in Slovenia is thus already accounted for by foreign hauliers (predominantly from Hungary, Croatia and Romania). The increased transit is a consequence of EU enlargements and the opening of competition between hauliers on the common transport market, but it is also related to Slovenia’s small size and its transit location. The volume of total freight transport per inhabitant is very high in Slovenia, 38% higher than the EU average, being higher only in five other EU Member States. Within that, transport by road is a sixth higher and transport by rail 2.8 times higher than the EU average. With the modernisation of the Divača–Koper railway line and some other sections, also planned with the help of funds from the Recovery and Resilience Plan, railway transport will strengthen further, as it is to a large extent linked to the trans-shipment of goods in the Port of Koper. We estimate that in 2020 and 2021 the share of road freight transport increased, since rail transport decreased more significantly during the epidemic and then recovered more slowly.
Transport by passenger car is the predominant mode of passenger transport in all EU Member States, but in Slovenia its share is among the highest. This can in part be attributed to the diversity of its landscape and its dispersed settlements, which – in spite of subsidies – limit a greater extension of the public passenger transport network and its profitability. More people have difficulty in accessing public transport than in the EU overall (in 2012, one-quarter in Slovenia against one-fifth on average in the EU). With such a passenger transport structure (where public transport is used relatively little in comparison with transport by car), the share of transportation expenditure in total household expenditure is also higher than in the EU (in Slovenia 18%, in the EU 12%). In 2020, Slovenia faced major restrictions on public passenger transport due to the epidemic and, while car travel was also limited owing to the ban on travel between municipalities and quarantines, the already low share of public passenger transport in total transport is likely to have fallen further.
5. Resource productivity
Resource productivity in Slovenia has fluctuated significantly over the years, especially in relation to changes in the construction industry, while the gap with the EU average has not narrowed since the global financial crisis. Resource productivity, expressed as the ratio of GDP to material consumption, increased the most in 2007–2012 amid a decline in construction activity. The decline in construction activity was related to the global financial crisis and the completion of the motorway network (most of which was built by 2009). The consumption of non-metallic minerals, which had accounted for more than two-thirds of total material consumption, therefore dropped significantly. The decline in total material consumption after 2011 was, in addition to lower consumption of non-metallic minerals, also significantly influenced by changes in thermal power generation (lower coal consumption). In 2019, when growth in construction activity again slowed significantly, the consumption of non-metallic minerals fell by almost 15%, which led to a significant improvement in resource productivity (to lag behind the EU average only by 8%). In 2020, construction activity was not significantly affected by the measures taken to contain the epidemic. A somewhat larger decline, which was nevertheless half lower than in the EU as a whole, was recorded only in the consumption of liquid fuels. As a result, in contrast to the EU as a whole, material consumption in Slovenia has decreased less than GDP and material productivity has decreased slightly, including compared to the EU average. We estimate that the use of energy products and non-metallic minerals did not increase in 2021, so material productivity is likely to rise again as GDP increases.
Slovenia’s self-sufficiency in materials is slightly above the EU average. Slovenia is well supplied with certain resources. In the breakdown of domestic extracted resources, more than half is sand, gravel, limestone and gypsum. Other important domestic resources are agricultural products, lignite and wood. Net imports account for around 12% of total material consumption. In 2020, the bulk of net imports were of petroleum products, gas, metal ores and agricultural products. Since the ice glaze damage in 2014, only net exports of wood, particularly sawlogs and veneer logs, have been relatively high, but these have declined significantly over the past year and have returned to previous normal levels. High net exports of raw materials otherwise decrease domestic material consumption in the calculation, but from the point of view of efficient use of domestic resources, they represent untapped potential for creating higher value added in the domestic manufacturing industry.
6. Waste
After a long period of increase, waste generation decreased in 2020, as expected with the COVID-19 crisis, while it increased in households. In 2020, about 7.7 million tonnes of waste were generated, 9% less than the previous year, but 72% more than in 2012, when the amount generated was the lowest in the period analysed (since 2000). The amount of waste in production and service activities, where most of the waste is generated (mineral waste and construction waste make up the majority of waste due to their high specific weight), decreased by about one-tenth due to the lower economic activity. The amount of municipal waste, which was again below the EU average in terms of per capita generation, decreased by 4% overall, while it increased by 2% for households. The total amount of hazardous waste, which has increased in the long term, decreased by 5%, with its share in total waste generation being around 2%.
Similar to waste generation, the amount of waste treated also decreased in 2020. In 2020, 6.8 million tonnes of waste were treated in final processing, which is 9% less than the previous year, though a quarter more than ten years ago. The amount of waste treated decreased in all three processes: recycling, waste incineration as fuel and the use of waste for backfilling. The share of recycling, which is highly desirable, has increased significantly since 2010 and is high by international standards, except for mineral waste. As waste generation increases, the amount of waste used for backfilling is also increasing rapidly, successfully reducing the amount of waste landfilled, which is the least preferred option in the waste management hierarchy. Landfilling of municipal waste, around three-quarters of which was already collected separately, also decreased. The main problem is the growing amount of packaging waste, which is increasing rapidly in the midst of the COVID-19 epidemic.
7. Environmental taxes
A long period of growth in revenue from environmental taxes was interrupted in 2018 and especially in 2020. According to our estimates, despite its increase, revenue in 2021 did not yet reach the 2019 level. The long period of growth in revenue before 2018, especially in revenue from energy taxes, was underpinned mainly by growth in fuel consumption in transport and excise duties on motor fuels. In 2018, revenue fell slightly year-on-year for the first time since 2011 (-1.2%), which was linked to lower excise duties on unleaded petrol and diesel, introduced in May 2018 to neutralise the pressure from high crude oil prices, and the slowdown in economic growth. The even more significant drop in revenue in 2020 (-18.4%) was due to a decline in economic activity related to the COVID-19 epidemic and a reduction in excise duties on petrol and diesel adopted to mitigate the impact of the epidemic. At the end of 2021, these duties remained below 2019 levels. Economic activity exceeded these levels, but preliminary state budget data show that revenue from excise duties on energy, which account for the largest share of environmental taxes, did not yet reach 2019 levels in 2021.
Revenue from environmental taxes as a share of GDP is still among the highest in the EU, despite the several years of decline. In 2005–2016, the share of environmental taxes in GDP expanded, then declined notably in 2017–2020, reaching 2.95% in 2020. It was significantly higher than the EU average, but the gap has narrowed since 2013, when it was widest, to less than 1 p.p. in 2020. The gap arises from energy taxes, which accounted for 81% of all environmental taxes in Slovenia in 2020. The high figure in Slovenia is a consequence of relatively high purchases and consumption of energy, which is related not only to extensive transit traffic and the strong transport sector in Slovenia, but also to dispersed settlement and the poorly developed public transport infrastructure.
8. Ecological footprint
Slovenia’s ecological footprint, a composite indicator of environmental development, increased in 2015–2018 and was above the EU average, indicating a significant and increasing environmental burden. The ecological footprint is expressed in global hectares (gha), a standardised unit of biologically productive area. The biologically productive area is the fertile area needed to satisfy human needs for food and sustain their lifestyles, including to absorb or dispose of the waste generated in the process. The largest component of the ecological footprint is (i) the carbon footprint, resulting from carbon dioxide and other GHG emissions, followed by (ii) the biological footprint, i.e. the footprint of arable land, forestland, grazing land and other fertile areas, and (iii) the footprint of built-up land (i.e. infrastructure). Slovenia’s ecological footprint declined during the recession related to the global financial crisis but then increased again, unlike in the EU overall, to reach 5.37 gha/person in 2018. The gap with the EU average has widened in recent years and was around 13% in 2018. This indicates economic development with a relatively high level of natural resource use and environmental pollution, meaning that Slovenia is not on track to reach the SDS target.
With its relatively high ecological footprint, the ecological deficit, i.e. the negative difference between the ecological footprint and the biological capacity, was also high. Biological capacity or biocapacity refers to the biologically productive areas capable of self-regeneration. Like the ecological footprint, it is expressed in global hectares – each global hectare produces the same quantity of biological materials. Biocapacity is fairly stable and does not change significantly from year to year. The bulk of Slovenia’s biocapacity is accounted for by forests, which despite their large surface area cannot sufficiently absorb carbon dioxide emissions. The share of other areas, particularly arable land and fishing grounds, is relatively modest compared with the EU average. The results of the latest calculations show that Slovenia’s ecological footprint (5.4 gha/person) is more than two and a half times higher than the capacity of its nature to regenerate (2.2 gha/person). Most EU Member States have an ecological deficit – only some Northern countries with sustainable economies and relatively extensive fishing grounds have an ecological reserve. Slovenia’s ecological deficit (-3.2 gha/person) is significantly higher than the world average (-1.2 gha/person) and also than the EU average (-1.8 gha/person).
9. Utilised agricultural area
Utilised agricultural area in Slovenia accounts for a significantly lower share of total land than in the EU as a whole, but this relatively modest share has stabilised in the last decade after a long period of decline. Utilised agricultural area (UAA), the preservation of which is crucial for food self-sufficiency, covered around 484,000 hectares in 2020. Due to the abandonment of agriculture, overgrowth of land by trees and conversion to built-up land, UAA has decreased by 14% since Slovenia’s independence, but it has remained largely unchanged over the last decade. The changes go both ways – conversion of agricultural land to other uses and conversion of non-agricultural land back to agricultural land, but, at least between 2014 and 2017, prime agricultural land was the most frequent subject of conversion (Court of Audit, 2021).
In terms of ensuring conditions for local food production, the modest share of arable land is of particular concern. In terms of arable land per person, arable land being the most important type of land from a food security perspective, Slovenia is among the bottom four countries in the EU. Its arable land per person is about 8.4 ares (EU average: 22 ares). Only about 3% of this land is used for growing vegetables, as a large part of the fields is used for growing fodder crops. These are also grown on permanent grassland, which accounts for the largest share, with about six-tenths of the utilised arable land. Around 6% of the utilised arable land is accounted for by permanent cropland, where vineyards and orchards predominate.
Organic farming, the most desirable form of agricultural production from an environmental perspective, is more widespread in Slovenia than in the EU as a whole and is constantly increasing. About 11% of all agricultural holdings were involved in controlled organic farming in 2020. Again, permanent pastures and meadows dedicated to fodder production account for the largest share, while the shares of the other types of land are relatively small. However, this is not in line with demand, which is highest for organically produced fresh fruit and vegetables and processed vegetarian foods (MKGP, 2021b). Given the natural conditions in Slovenia, i.e. the high proportion of farms in mountainous and other remote areas where intensive conventional farming is not possible, there is still much scope for further development.
10. Agricultural intensity
Given its moderate average crop and livestock production, Slovenia is not among the countries with high agricultural intensity. The development of Slovenian agriculture is characterised by dualism: in addition to an increasing intensification of agriculture due to a decrease in the number of farms and thus a greater concentration of crop production, Slovenia has also seen an increase in organic farming, which is the most desirable form from an environmental perspective. A comparison with the EU average in crop production does not give a uniform picture, which is evident from the average yields for Slovenia’s two most important crops, wheat and maize: for wheat, the yield per hectare tends to be lower than the EU average, while for maize it is generally higher. Under the impact of weather conditions, the yields vary considerably from year to year, but in the long term they are increasing as technology improves. As long as they are not too high, this means an improvement in the exploitation of natural resources. The environmental burden of livestock production, as measured by the number of animals per unit of agricultural area, is not among the lowest given the natural conditions, but the average milk yield per animal is below the EU average. This is favourable from the point of view of the burden on animals but somewhat less so from the point of view of environmental impact in relation to the number of animals.
The downward trend in the consumption of mineral fertilisers and pesticides has resumed in the last two years analysed after being interrupted. In 2020, for the second year in a row, fertilisation with plant macronutrients from mineral fertilisers, i.e. nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK fertilisers), and pesticide consumption, measured in terms of the total quantity of active ingredients sold per unit of agricultural land, decreased. A comparison of fertiliser consumption with the EU average shows a mixed picture: nitrogen consumption, which accounts for most of the NPK fertilisers, is lower per unit of land but phosphorus consumption is higher. In terms of pesticide sales, Slovenia is in the upper middle range of EU Member States for which data is available. This measurement is quite challenging, as substances with different degrees of toxicity are involved and sales also depend on the type of crops grown and weather conditions and thus on the occurrence of diseases and pests.
11. Intensity of tree felling
The intensity of tree felling, which had been relatively large after 2014 as a result of sanitary felling, decreased significantly in 2020. The severe tree damage caused by the glaze ice in 2014 was exacerbated by a rapid spread of the spruce bark beetle in subsequent years, while in 2017 and 2018 forests were additionally damaged by strong windthrow. Therefore major sanitary felling was necessary. After the six-year period following the glaze ice, during which about 50% more wood mass was cut per year than before, logging fell by a fifth in 2020 and was only 8% higher than before the glaze ice event. The shortfall with the maximum felling level allowed increased again, to around 40%. Tree felling intensity, expressed as the ratio of annual felling to annual wood
increment, decreased again, to 48%. This means that it moved away from the goal determined with a view to ensuring sustainable development by 2020 (75%) (MKO, MGRT, 2012). However, the structure of cut wood, which had changed considerably during the period of sanitary felling, moved in the direction typical of normal conditions for the second year in a row in 2020. The share of sanitary logging decreased by 12 p.p. to 42%, and felling for tree-tending purposes, which accounts for the largest share under normal conditions, accounted for more than half of the total tree felling for the first time since the glaze ice event.
The lower felling in 2019 and 2020 was reflected in lower raw wood production, but the opportunities for further development of the forest-timber chain are still great, due to the large forest cover and the growing timber supply. After the glaze ice damage, production has increased for all wood categories, particularly pulpwood, but also sawlogs and veneer logs, i.e. the highest-quality wood, which generates the highest value added. However, external trade in unprocessed wood has increased more than total production. With annual imports slightly dropping, total exports have increased by around 60% annually in the period since the ice damage, and exports of coniferous logs alone more than doubled. The high exports of this high-quality raw material, however, represent a lost opportunity for Slovenia to increase employment and achieve higher value added in other sectors up the forest–wood chain.
12. Quality of watercourses
The quality of Slovenian watercourses, as measured by biochemical oxygen demand, is high. Their cleanness, which was close to the EU average at the beginning of the previous decade, has improved significantly since 2005. For several years it has been among the highest among the EU Member States for which data are available. The concentrations of nitrates in groundwater and phosphates in rivers, which in excessive quantities degrade water quality, have also fallen in the long term and are below the EU average. The decline in organic pollution, which is usually caused by municipal and industrial wastewater discharges and runoff from agricultural land, is a consequence of a significant improvement in wastewater treatment and abandonment of certain economic activities, which were polluting watercourses with wastewater in previous years.
About one-fifth of wastewater in total is treated before discharge and about two-thirds of municipal wastewater. In Slovenia, which is fairly rich in water resources owing to its diverse natural conditions and has a relatively high amount of freshwater resources available per capita, 1,033 million m3 of water in total was abstracted in 2020, 12% more than five years before. The majority of this water comes from surface water sources and is intended for industry (activities B, C, D and E), and only around one-fifth is abstracted from groundwater resources and intended for the public water supply system and irrigation. A total of 1,049 million m3 of wastewater was discharged into the environment. The share of water treated before discharge increased from 11% to 17% between 2015 and 2020, while the majority of untreated water is only thermally polluted due to its use in hydroelectric power plants. In 2020, 69% of the municipal wastewater from sewers was treated in wastewater treatment plants before being discharged into the environment.
13. Ambient air quality
The quality of ambient air in Slovenia is to a large extent related to excessive particulate matter (PM) pollution, which is mainly a consequence of inappropriate burning of wood biomass and poor ventilation of some areas. Most of the particulate matter (PM10) pollution, about 60%, is due to emissions from small combustion sources, to a large extent owing to households’ outdated wood biomass furnaces and the often unfavourable weather conditions in the poorly ventilated basins and valleys of the continental part of Slovenia. With pronounced temperature inversions, even a relatively low emission density can cause excessive air pollution. As there are no such problems in the warm season, the data on the annual averages show a better picture than the data on the number of days with the exceeded daily limit value, which are typical of the cold months of the year. Another major source of particulate emissions is energy use in industrial processes and fuel combustion in industry, followed by road transport emissions. In recent years, the overall average exposure of the urban population to particle pollution has been declining, partly as a result of milder winters, but exposure to the smallest particles is still significantly higher than the EU average.
Another problem is the locally high presence of ground-level ozone. As the formation of ozone requires sufficient sunlight, the excessive concentrations of ozone, in contrast to particulate matter, mainly occur during the summer months. They are primarily the result of road traffic, the main source of ground-level ozone precursors. In Slovenia, the ambient concentration of ozone is significantly affected by transboundary air pollution and is highly dependent on winds from the west. It is highest in the Primorska region, although it is also high in most other areas, even in rural areas and at higher altitudes (ARSO, 2022a). As ozone concentrations are strongly dependent on weather conditions, no clear trend can be seen from the multi-year data series, but according to the most recent data, the exposure of the urban population to ozone was higher than the EU average.
14. Functionally derelict areas
Functionally derelict areas (FDAs) continue to undergo positive spatial changes, as reflected in the accelerated revitalisation of existing FDAs and the slower growth of new FDAs. In 2021, a higher number of building permits issued and increased investment activity were also observed in the FDAs. Compared to 2020, changes were observed in about one-tenth of FDAs, and both their total number and area have decreased. At the same time, the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis started to show through the cessation of activities in areas intended for trade, services and industry, which could be reflected in new FDAs. In 2017–2021, activities in about one-third of, i.e. 350, FDAs resumed or revitalisation efforts were still ongoing.
The revival was evenly distributed across the regions and was most concentrated in terms of structure on FDAs for housing. To a large extent (59% of all FDAs), the construction of unfinished residential areas on FDAs for housing has been completed, but mainly intended for elite residential neighbourhoods, which will not significantly alleviate the deficit of public rental housing (see Chapter 3). Most of the residential neighbourhoods whose construction was completed are located in the Osrednjeslovenska and Koroška regions (in both regions they accounted for one-fifth of all revivals in the region), but they are also located in other statistical regions (e.g. Savinjska, Podravska and Jugovzhodna Slovenija). Abandoned construction sites, which are classified as FDAs of transitional use, were also revived at 42% of locations. For FDAs of industrial and craft activities, the most positive changes were observed in the Goriška region, while for FDAs of service activities, the most positive changes were observed in the Osrednjeslovenska and Gorenjska regions.
1. Trust in institutions
After several years of improvement, trust in most institutions decreased in 2020 and 2021, remaining below the EU average, and was below the SDS target, except for trust in local authorities. It was the highest and above the EU average in 2006 but has dropped significantly since then. Trust in most institutions was the lowest at the end of the global financial crisis, while it improved in 2013–2019. The level of trust in key institutions decreased again in the last two years. In 2021, trust in the government, parliament and political parties was among the lowest in the EU. The increased dissatisfaction was to a great extent due to the COVID-19 epidemic, which led to changes in the economy and people’s lives. In Slovenia, more than half of the respondents (53%; EU: 25%) thought that the measures taken by the public authorities to contain the epidemic were unjustified and 59% (EU: 50%) believed that things were heading in the wrong direction. Most respondents did not expect the economic situation and the general situation in Slovenia to improve in the next 12 months. Trust in local authorities was higher during the epidemic than before, and this is still the institution people trust the most, while political parties are the least trusted institution.
Trust in the EU and its institutions has increased since 2015. It was the highest in 2006 and the lowest in 2015 and has been rising again since then. In 2021, 55% of respondents trusted the EU, which is the most since 2008 and more than the EU average, which can be attributed to the increased reputation of the EU among Slovenian citizens. In 2021, trust in European institutions also increased further compared to the previous year. More than half of all respondents trusted the European Commission (52%; EU: 50%) and the European Parliament (51%; EU: 53%) and slightly fewer the European Central Bank (45%; EU: 48%).
2. Executive capacity
The executive capacity indicator, which measures the strategic governance of public institutions, is gradually improving in Slovenia but remains low compared to other EU Member States. The executive capacity indicator is a sustainable governance indicator measuring government and institutional performance in eight dimensions: strategic capacity, inter-ministerial cooperation, regulatory impact assessment, societal consultation, policy communication, the implementation of set measures, adaptability and the capacity for reforming the public administration. Since 2017, the indicator value and Slovenia’s rank among the EU Member States have improved, but Slovenia continues to lag significantly behind the EU average in all indicator dimensions.
A low executive capacity score points to the relatively low values of the government and institutional performance indicators. In the SGI survey (Bertelsmann, 2020), the main weaknesses identified were in effective strategic planning and organisational reforms, where only limited progress has been made in recent years. The implementation of policy measures at various levels of government (both central and local) is also assessed as significantly worse than in other EU Member States. One of the issues is political interference in recruiting in
the state administration, even at expert levels. Despite the progress made over the past year, Slovenia also lags behind other countries in producing a comprehensive assessment of the impact of proposed regulations (RIA) on public finances, the economy, the environment and society as a whole.
Executive capacity indicator by dimension, 2020
3. The Rule of Law Index
Slovenia ranks in the lower half of EU Member States on the Rule of Law Index; its ranking has not changed significantly since 2012. The rule of law highlights the principle of equality before the law and emphasises the inviolability of the authority of the law and rules. This means that the Government itself respects the law, that the functioning of government bodies is bound by law, and that fundamental human rights and freedoms are ensured. By being ranked in the lower half of EU Member States on the Rule of Law Index, which has not improved in the long term (2012–2021), Slovenia lags behind the SDS target. Slovenia scores best in the category of order and safety, where it is close to the top-ranking Scandinavian countries. The only other category where it also ranks close to the EU average is fundamental rights (where it scores well on the right to life and security and labour rights indicators). On the other hand, it lags most behind the EU average in criminal justice, with indicators in this area reflecting mistrust in the justice system, particularly in its independence. The weaknesses in adherence to the rule of law are also indicated by the low indicator values in the areas of responsibility and powers of government policy (e.g. the sanctions for official misconduct indicator, compliance with legislation and respect for the judiciary by the government) and the absence of corruption (e.g. the risk of corruption in the executive branch and in the legislature). According to Eurobarometer (2021d), respondents in Slovenia are less well informed about the rule of law in Slovenia than the EU average, and a high proportion of respondents believe that the EU’s fundamental values (human rights, the rule of law and democracy) are not sufficiently protected (Slovenia: 62%; EU: 32%).
Rule of Law Index by sub-component, 2021
4. The expected time needed to resolve litigious civil and commercial cases
The expected time needed to resolve litigious civil and commercial cases shortened significantly in 2008–2019, but it remains longer than the EU average. In 2008–2014, Slovenia saw a shortening of the expected time needed to resolve litigious civil and commercial cases by more than 40%, in large part due to the project to eliminate court backlogs and other structural reforms (e.g. insolvency legislation). Since 2014, the time needed to resolve these cases has increased slightly (to 281 days in 2019), moving away from the SDS 2030 target (200 days). This can be attributed mainly to new competences given to the courts and a larger number of major cases. The gap with the EU average also widened in this period. Court proceedings related to money laundering take the longest compared to other countries. Meanwhile, the expected length of second- and third-instance proceedings – where Slovenia has been among the best-performing countries in recent years – is shortening. However, owing to the different data and methodology used in the calculation, the expected disposition time differs from the time actually taken to resolve a case.
The efficiency of the justice system has improved in recent years. The average time needed to resolve a case shortened, though the time needed to resolve major cases has lengthened slightly. The average time needed to resolve a case has shortened significantly over the past few years, to 1 month in 2021. Up to 2016, the time needed to resolve a major case was also rapidly decreasing, largely as a consequence of a smaller incoming caseload and greater efficiency on the part of the courts. This amount of time has not changed significantly since 2016 and has lengthened somewhat in the last two years. This can be attributed, among other things, to new competences given to the courts by legislative amendments, although the courts still resolved more cases than came in in most years. The limited functioning of the courts due to the COVID-19 epidemic affected caseload and efficiency indicators in 2020, but in 2021 the courts again resolved more cases than came in (0.4% of major cases and 1.5% of all cases). The share of pending major cases in the total number of unresolved cases has thus increased (by 46.9% in 2016 and 67% in 2021).
5. The Corruption Perception Index
The already relatively high perception of corruption in Slovenia further increased over the past year. The Corruption Perception Index (CPI) is based on the rate of public sector corruption as perceived by businesspeople, experts and analysts. In 2012–2020, Slovenia made no significant progress in the corruption perception ranking. Its ranking even slightly worsened in the last measurement and the gap with the EU average widened. Slovenia is among the EU Member States (with Cyprus, Hungary, Spain and Malta) where the index has fallen the most since 2012, reflecting a higher perception of corruption, but it is faring better than most countries that joined the EU after 2003. The last two years were marked by the COVID-19 epidemic and ensuing crisis, which exposed a number of corruption risks, as the number of corruption cases reported to the Commission for the Prevention of Corruption was higher in both years than in 2019. According to Eurobarometer (2020b), 87% of persons asked think that corruption is widespread in Slovenia, but at the same time, a large majority of respondents have no personal experience of corruption. The high perception of corruption in Slovenia can to a great extent be attributed to respondents believing that high-profile and major cases of corruption are not adequately sanctioned.
6. The Global Peace Index
According to the World Peace Index, Slovenia was once again one of the most peaceful countries in the world in 2021 and improved its rank compared to the previous year, remaining within the SDS 2030 target. In 2021, it ranked 5th out of 163 countries in the world and 3rd among EU Member States, which is in line with the SDS target. Only Iceland, New Zealand, Denmark and Portugal were ahead of Slovenia. Slovenia is among the ten best performing countries in the area of militarisation (2nd) and societal safety and security (7th). In both areas, it made slight progress compared to the previous year. It scores lower in the area of domestic and international conflict (50th), which is mainly due to the still slightly worse assessment of relations with neighbouring countries and the intensity of organised internal conflicts. It has also scored slightly lower over the past decade with regard to the indicators of the number of internal security officers and police per 100,000 people and the likelihood of violent demonstrations. Compared with other countries, Slovenia nevertheless ranks relatively high in these areas, but these scores indicate certain shortcomings, albeit ones that do not significantly affect the assessment of peace in the country. According to the Global Peace Index for 2021, Europe was the most peaceful region in the world and was home to eight of the ten most peaceful countries in the world (six of which are EU Member States). The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) was the least peaceful region in the world and Afghanistan was the least peaceful country in the world. Globally, the number of armed conflicts and wars did not change significantly in the years until 2021 and remained high (Strand and Havard, 2021), but the COVID-19 pandemic has created new tensions and insecurities that are manifesting themselves primarily in political and social unrest, but also in feelings of being threatened and interpersonal violence (IEP, 2021a).
7. Share of households reporting problems with crime, vandalism or violence in the local area
The share of people reporting problems with crime, vandalism or violence in the local area in 2020 was the lowest in the last 15 years and in line with the SDS target. It was 7.3%, slightly lower than the previous year, as in most other EU Member States, which may be partly due to the measures taken to contain the spread of COVID-19. In the last decade, it has constantly been below the EU average. The incidence of crime is mostly affected by socio-economic factors and social climate, and crime is also more common in urban environments. The proportion of households reporting problems with crime in their local environment decreased in most regions in 2020, with the smallest decrease in the Koroška region (SURS, 2022b). Jugovzhodna Slovenija continued to stand out on this indicator with the highest share, exceeding the Slovenian average by three-quarters. Despite the decrease in 2020, it grew the most in this area compared to 2010. In 2020, the Slovenian average was exceeded by the Obalno-kraška, Posavska and Osrednjeslovenska regions. In the last, the share of households reporting problems with crime decreased the most compared to 2010, but it was still above the Slovenian average in 2020. The Osrednjeslovenska region has the most urbanised areas in Slovenia, which increases the potential for crime. Important factors that contribute to a reduction in crime are a better quality of life for families in the community (the prevention and reduction of poverty and social exclusion), high-quality implementation of educational work in schools, and more comprehensive organisation of social life and surveillance in the local community (Meško and Sotlar, 2012).
Slovenia is a safe country, which has a positive impact on the quality of life. The results of the European Social Survey suggest that the share of respondents who have had personal experience of burglary or physical assault after 2010 hoovered between 9% and 11% and, according to the 2018 data, was lower than the average for countries included in the survey (15%) (ESS-ERIC, 2020). In 2020, 10.2% of respondents reported such experience, which is slightly less than in 2018 (CJMMK, 2022). In addition to the personal experience of crime, people’s quality of life is also affected by the feeling of being threatened in the immediate environment, which was consistently lower in Slovenia than the average of the countries participating in the survey. In 2020, 94% of respondents felt safe when walking alone in their neighbourhood at night, which is the same as in 2018 (EU-17: 83%).
8. Expenditure on official development assistance
In 2020, expenditure on official development assistance remained significantly lower than international commitments. Official development assistance is defined as aid provided by advanced countries in support of sustainable development in developing countries. Compared to the previous year, 17 EU Member States increased their funds for official development assistance in 2020 to support partner countries in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic (EC, 2021k). Slovenia allocated EUR 79.61 million for development assistance, 2% more than in 2019, thus maintaining the share of GNI dedicated for this purpose, though this remained significantly below the EU average. Expenditure on official development assistance (0.17% of GNI) falls considerably short of international commitments, according to which Slovenia should strive to increase the share of GNI for this purpose to 0.33% by 2030.
The structure of assistance in 2020 was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Development assistance is the sum of multilateral assistance (funding provided for the regular development activities of international organisations) and bilateral assistance. To help partner countries address the health, economic and social challenges of the COVID-19 crisis, funding for bilateral humanitarian aid was significantly increased in 2020. Most of this aid was intended for emergency relief and was mainly financed by earmarked contributions to international organisations. Due to the situation, assistance focused on specific projects, which has accounted for a relatively large share of bilateral aid in recent years, saw the sharpest decline (by 65%) in 2020. Support for the operation of institutions increased the most (by 56%), but it remains relatively low in terms of funding (about 1.6% of all bilateral assistance). In recent years, Slovenia has used most of its aid to pay tuition fees and scholarships, which further increased in 2020 (by 19%) and the cost of caring for refugees and migrants also increased again (by 18%). In 2020, Slovenia again dedicated most of its bilateral aid to Western Balkan countries, 76% in total, which is more than ever before. Most of this aid was again allocated to quality education projects (funds for paying tuition fees and scholarships). The volume of multilateral aid also increased, with the largest share (86%) of aid going to development cooperation programmes within the EU. Together with humanitarian aid, this has contributed to a relatively small increase in funding for official development assistance in 2020 (MZZ, 2022a).