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The outlook for the euro area remains positive, while uncertainty in the international environment related to commodity prices and bottlenecks has increased in recent months. Survey indicators for the third quarter point to a slowdown in global economic growth and, given the decline in activity in China and supply chain disruptions, a slowdown in global trade growth. Economic activity in the euro area is expected to remain at current levels in the third quarter. Confidence indicators remain high, especially in manufacturing where the ESI indicator is well above pre-epidemic levels. However, uncertainty is increasing. This is mainly due to the international environment and is related to high commodity prices (energy and non-energy) in world markets and increasing supply-side bottlenecks, with semiconductor shortages affecting the automotive sector in particular. 

In Slovenia, some economic indicators point to a slowdown in growth in the summer months, while economic sentiment indicators remain higher than before the epidemic. The relatively favourable development of trade and tourism-related activities continued in the summer months, and household consumption increased. According to data on fiscal verification of invoices, total turnover in September was higher than in the same period before the epidemic. Activity in the export part of the economy remained at a similar level in July and August as in the second quarter, when it increased significantly. The slowdown in growth in recent months is related to disruptions in the supply of raw materials in the automotive industry. Freight traffic on Slovenian motorways remains comparable to the same period before the epidemic, but in recent months growth in industrial electricity consumption has slowed and is behind 2019 levels due to disruptions in the supply of raw materials and a slowdown in production growth. Construction activity further declined in July, with a particularly unfavourable trend in non-residential construction. In September, uncertainty about the future development of the COVID-19 epidemic and possible further containment measures (the recovered/vaccinated/tested rule was introduced on 15 September 2021) contributed to the deterioration of the economic sentiment indicator and consumer confidence, which are nevertheless higher than a year ago and before the epidemic. 

The labour market continues to recover. The number of unemployed declined during the summer months and is lower than before the epidemic. At the end of September, 66,122 people were unemployed, 4.6% fewer than at the end of August and 21.3% fewer than a year earlier. Year-on-year employment growth increased in July, mainly due to the relatively low base last year. The highest increases were recorded in health and social work and construction, and for the first time since the outbreak of the epidemic, growth was also higher year-on-year in accommodation and food service activities. Year-on-year wage growth was high in July, as was in the previous months, mainly due to developments in the public sector. 
 
Consumer price growth strengthened to 2.4% in September. As in previous months, higher prices of petroleum products, which rose by almost 30% year-on-year, continued to be the main contributors to inflation. Services prices also rose more strongly, mainly due to the higher year-on-year increase in prices of tourism-related services. Prices of durable goods, which are affected by rising commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks, are also gradually picking up. According to the World Bank, non-energy commodity prices were more than a quarter higher in September than a year ago, although growth has slowed in recent months. Prices of oil and most other energy commodities, which were at very low levels last year as the epidemic spread, continue to rise and have almost doubled year-on-year. To some extent, this has also contributed to the strengthening of year-on-year growth in Slovenian industrial producer prices, which continues to be driven by the rise in commodity prices as well as the increase in capital goods prices. 
 
The overall deficit of the consolidated balance of public finances amounted to EUR 2,071 million in the first eight months and was slightly lower than a year ago. The bulk of the deficit still arose from increased expenditure, mainly related to the measures taken to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. The structure of these measures is different from last year (higher payments for bonuses and the operation of public services, lower payments for job retention measures), but the amount paid from the state budget in the first eight months of 2021 (EUR 2.35 billion) already exceeds the amount paid in the whole of last year. One of the reasons for the slightly lower deficit than last year was a strong increase in tax revenues due to stronger economic activity and some one-off factors. Slovenia received more funds from the EU budget in the first eight months than it paid in.