The year-on-year price growth (0.6%) continued to moderate in September. Prices remained unchanged month-on-month, with the year-on-year slowdown in inflation mainly due to a higher base, largely influenced by the expiry of the partial exemption from the RES and CHP contribution in September last year. The year-on-year price decline in the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels group thus nearly doubled in September compared to August (-6.1%), while the monthly price drop was modest. After two months of strong seasonal price declines, the seasonal price increase in the clothing and footwear group was more pronounced than in previous years (14.3% month-on-month), though prices remained lower year-on-year (0.6%). Year-on-year growth in service prices decelerated somewhat, but remained relatively high (3.9%). We estimate that the slower growth this time was primarily due to the moderation of price growth in the restaurants and hotels group, where prices were 4.2% higher year-on-year (compared to a 6.7% increase in August). The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose slightly month-on-month in September, while their year-on-year growth increased by 0.1 p.p. to 1.5% compared to August.

The month-on month decline in the number registered unemployed (seasonally adjusted) came to a halt in September, with the number of unemployed increasing slightly, by 0.3%. According to original data, 43,847 people were unemployed at the end of September, 1.4% less than at the end of August. Year-on-year, the number of unemployed was 4.7% lower in September, marking a smaller decrease than in previous months. Amid labour shortages and retirement of older employees, the number of long-term unemployed (more than one year) and the number of unemployed over 55 fell year-on-year at the end of September, by 13.6% and 10% respectively. In the first nine months, just over 1% of the unemployed moved to inactivity or retirement each month, similar to previous years, which also contributed to the decline in unemployment.

Both exports and imports of goods  decreased month-on-month in August but remained higher than a year ago. After two consecutive months of growth, real exports fell by 1.9% in August compared to July. This was due to lower exports to EU countries (-2.8%), particularly to Italy, Austria, Croatia and France, while exports to Germany rose slightly. On a month-on-month basis, exports declined in most main product groups, although exports of pharmaceutical and other chemical products increased. Imports fell for the second month in a row (by -4.1%), with declines seen in imports from both EU and non-EU countries. Imports of consumer goods fell sharply (all seasonally adjusted). 
In the first eight months, exports and imports of goods were on average higher year-on-year (by 3.1% and 2.8% respectively, original data). Trade in vehicles and pharmaceuticals were the main contributors to year-on-year growth. Sentiment in export-oriented activities and expectations for export orders remained at a very low level in September.

After a decline in the second quarter, real turnover in market services increased in July and was also higher year-on-year (by 4.6%). Total turnover grew by 1.8% month-on-month in July, following a 1.4% decline in the second quarter. The most notable turnover growth occurred in professional and technical activities, where a three-month downward trend in architectural and engineering services came to a halt. After stagnating in the first half of the year,  accommodation and food service activities experienced a strong increase in turnover. Similarly, turnover in transportation and storage increased, driven by growth in land and air transport. Meanwhile, turnover continued to fall in information and communication and in administrative and support service activities, though at a slower pace than in the previous month. The decline in the former was primarily due to a further drop in turnover from telecommunication services, while the latter saw continued drops in turnover from employment and travel agencies. The level of turnover in real estate activities remained stable compared to the previous month. In the first seven months of 2024, transportation and storage was the only activity to record a year-on-year decrease in real turnover.

Yields to maturity of euro area government bonds declined gradually throughout the third quarter. This was significantly influenced by the ECB’s monetary policy, which has already cut key interest rates twice this year as inflationary pressures eased. As a result, the yield on Slovenian bonds fell by 21 b.p. compared to the previous quarter, reaching 3.07%. However, the spread to the German bond remained largely unchanged (77 b.p.).