In the third quarter of 2024, GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) and by 1.4% year-on-year. Year-on-year growth has increased compared to the second quarter of this year, mainly due to higher export activity. After falling year-on-year in the first half of the year, exports of goods and services rose by 8.4% year-on-year, mainly due to a low base of last year and a higher number of working days in the third quarter of this year. Export growth was higher than import growth (6.5%), resulting in a positive contribution of the external trade balance to GDP growth (1.9 p.p.). Solid growth of household consumption continued (1.9%). Growth in government consumption remained high (9.1%). In contrast, the decline in gross fixed capital formation deepened dramatically (-8.2%).

Manufacturing output continued to shrink in the third quarter (despite a recovery in September) (seasonally adjusted), but was 3.0% higher than in the third quarter of last year (working day-adjusted). On average, production in low-technology industries fell in the third quarter, while in the other groups it was higher or similar to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted). In a year-on-year comparison, it was higher in medium-technology industries, while it remained largely unchanged in low- and high-technology industries. In the first nine months, manufacturing output was 0.7% higher year-on-year. After last year’s decline, production increased in most energy-intensive industries, with the exception of non-metallic mineral products (combined with modest activity in construction). All energy-intensive industries are still lagging behind pre-crisis levels, most notably the paper industry, where production is more than a fifth lower than at the start of 2021. The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers remained lower than a year ago. 

According to data on the value of construction work put in place, construction activity continued to decline in the third quarter, remaining significantly lower than in the same period last year. After last year’s robust growth of construction activity, the value of construction put in place this year has fallen sharply. In September, the value of construction put in place was 18% lower year-on-year, and for the first nine months combined, it was down by 10%. The most significant year-on-year drops were seen in civil engineering (down 14%) and construction of buildings (down 13%), while the smallest decline occurred in specialised construction activities (down 6%). 
This lower activity was (among other things) related to government investment activity. Capital expenditure (according to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts) was 6% lower in the first nine months of this year as in the same period last year. However, spending on new buildings, reconstructions and adaptations – areas most closely tied to construction activity – plummeted by 27%.

The surplus on the current account of the balance of payments was EUR 691 million higher year-on-year in the third quarter of this year. This increase was mainly due to the goods trade balance (EUR 497 million). Real exports of goods increased more sharply year-on-year than imports, and the terms of trade improved again. We estimate that the quantity fluctuations contributed EUR 271 million to the year-on-year change in the balance of goods trade in the third quarter and the terms of trade contributed EUR 226 million. The surplus in trade in services was also higher year-on-year, due to a larger surplus in trade in technical, trade-related services; the surplus in trade in travel and transport was also higher. The primary income deficit was smaller year-on-year in the third quarter. This was mainly due to lower net outflows of dividends and profits and higher net interest income from investments by domestic commercial banks in foreign debt securities. The secondary income deficit remained largely unchanged. The 12-month balance of the current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of EUR 3.2 billion in September (4.8% of estimated GDP).