In 2024, GDP rose by 1.6% in real terms; growth in economic activity accelerated slightly in the fourth quarter of last year (0.6% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted). Export performance was significantly better last year than expected, with total exports of goods and services rising by 3.2%. Total import growth (3.9%) outpaced export growth, leading to a negative contribution of the external trade balance to GDP growth (-0.4 p.p.). Private consumption growth (1.6%) was supported by higher real growth in gross disposable income amid high employment and relatively strong real growth in wages and social transfers. As expected, growth in government consumption was high last year (8.5%). The high growth was methodically influenced by the transformation of supplementary health insurance into a compulsory health contribution and expenditures related to post-flood recovery. Employment growth in the general government sector also strengthened. Investments rose slightly quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, but the developments in 2024 as a whole were much weaker than expected. Gross fixed capital formation fell by 3.7% last year. Construction investment, particularly in the first three quarters, declined, partly due to a drop in government investment.

After two quarters of contraction, manufacturing output rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2024 (seasonally adjusted); year-on-year, output was higher in the second half of the year, following a decline in the first half. High-technology industries saw a sharp quarter-on-quarter increase in the fourth quarter (seasonally adjusted), with output rising by approximately 12% compared to the same period in 2023. Output in the medium-technology industries remained largely unchanged from the previous quarter but increased by around 1% year-on-year. Most low-technology industries also saw year-on-year growth in production. On average, manufacturing output grew by 1.2% in 2024 (working-day adjusted). Production in energy-intensive industries (with the exception of manufacture other non-metallic mineral products) has recovered the most after the decline during the energy crisis, though it remains below 2021 levels. The manufacture of fabricated metal products and manufacture of electrical equipment have also increased significantly. Conversely, production in the manufacture of motor vehicles and (semi-)trailers continued to decline. Output in the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. and certain low-technology industries (particularly the furniture and leather industries) also decreased.

Construction activity picked up towards the end of last year (seasonally adjusted), but was significantly lower overall in 2024 than in 2023. After declining gradually until autumn 2024, construction activity increased by 9% in the fourth quarter (seasonally adjusted). In 2024 as a whole, however, it fell by 9%. In this comparison, the most significant declines were seen in civil engineering (down 13%) and construction of buildings (down 12%), while specialised construction activities saw the smallest decline (down 3%). This lower activity in construction was (among other things) related to government investment activity. Capital expenditure (according to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts) fell by 9% year-on-year, and expenditure on new construction, reconstruction, and renovation, which we consider to be most closely linked to construction activity, was 25% lower.

In 2024, the current account surplus rose by EUR 426 million to EUR 3.3 billion. The main contributor to the surplus was higher goods trade balance, as goods exports increased more sharply than imports in nominal terms. The terms of trade had a positive impact on the change in the nominal goods trade balance (EUR 247 million), contributing EUR 385 million, while quantity fluctuations had a negative impact (EUR -138 million). The surplus in trade in services remained high, especially in trade in technical, trade-related services, but partly also in certain knowledge-based services (telecommunications, computer and information services, financial services and R&D services). The primary income deficit was lower mainly due to lower net outflows from equity income (dividends and profits) and higher net interest receipts from abroad. The lower secondary income deficit resulted mostly from higher net higher transfers to the private sector.