Charts of the week from 11 to 15 November 2024: GDP, production volume in manufacturing, activity in construction and current account of the balance of payments
Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter amid increased export activity. Private consumption maintained robust growth, government consumption remained high, while investments saw a sharp decline. Construction activity continued to weaken in the third quarter, falling by 15.9% compared to the same period last year.…
Charts of the week from 4 to 8 November 2024: unemployment, value of fiscally verified invoices, exports and imports of goods
In October, unemployment decreased by 3.7% compared to the same month last year. However, the number of unemployed rose…
Charts of the week from 28 October to 1 November 2024: consumer prices, turnover in trade and turnover in market services
Inflation in October was significantly affected by a new method of calculating network charges for electricity; prices…
Charts of the week from 21 to 25 October 2024: economic sentiment, Slovenian industrial producer prices and average gross wage per employee
In October, economic sentiment deteriorated again. However, it remained stronger year-on-year, with a positive influence…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth is expected to slow this year (to 1.5%) and thus be lower than expected in the spring (2.4%). We expect GDP growth to pick up again in the next two years. Inflation is expected to remain low until November, before rising towards the end of the year and the beginning of next year due to the low base effect and the expiry of measures to curb high energy prices; we estimate that it will approach 2% again in 2026.
Labour market
Employment is at a record high, while unemployment is at a historic low. Given the already high level of employment, growth will be dampened by severe labour shortages over the next two years. The tight labour market will be somewhat alleviated by measures to facilitate the attraction and recruitment of foreign labour, so that growth will continue to be supported mainly by the hiring of foreign nationals.
International trade
Exports of goods are expected to increase again this year (after a decline last year), while exports of services will decline. Growth will be dampened by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. Amid strong growth in domestic consumption, import growth is expected to significantly outpace export growth, resulting in a negative foreign trade balance. Over the next two years, gradually higher growth in foreign demand will be followed by higher growth in exports and related activities.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.