Slovenian Economic Mirror 4/2024: Activity in manufacturing and trade improved; inflation continues to moderate
Manufacturing output recovered in April after a significant decline in March and is now close to the level of the first two months of the year. In the first four months, it was similar to the same period last year. Trade in goods decreased month-on-month in April but increased year-on-year. In the first four months, exports…
Charts of the week from 10 to 14 June 2024: production volume in manufacturing, activity in construction, current account of the balance of payments and other charts
Manufacturing output increased in April, reaching a level close that of the first two months of the year, with activity…
Charts of the week from 3 to 7 June 2024: trade in goods, turnover in market services and number of registered unemployed
Trade in goods decreased month-on-month in April but increased year-on-year. In the first four months, exports and…
Charts of the week from 27 to 31 May 2024: consumer prices, economic sentiment, turnover in trade and active and inactive population
Year-on-year growth in consumer prices fell for the second consecutive month in May, reaching 2.5%, the lowest level…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth will pick up this year (2.4%), albeit somewhat more modestly than what we forecast in the autumn (2.8%). Economic activity will benefit from continued investment growth, easing of inflationary pressure and a recovery in foreign demand, although this will be somewhat weaker than expected in the autumn. We expect GDP growth to increase slightly in the next two years. Inflation is expected to gradually moderate for most of this year before rising towards the end of this year and early next year due to the base effect and the expiry of measures to contain high energy prices. We expect inflation to approach 2% in 2026.
Labour market
The increase of employment and the decline in unemployment are set to moderate further this year. Employment will not increase significantly in the next two years, and the labour shortage will be somewhat alleviated by certain measures to facilitate the recruitment and hiring of foreign workers, which should be further strengthened. As in recent years, the employment of foreign workers will be the key to employment growth.
International trade
We expect a recovery in goods exports this year after last year’s decline and slightly higher growth in value added in manufacturing, while growth in services exports will be driven mainly by growth in tourism-related services. Growth will be curbed by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. With the gradually higher growth in foreign demand, we expect higher growth in exports and related activities in the next two years.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.