Charts of the week from 19 to 23 January 2026: average gross wage per employee
Year-on-year nominal growth of the average gross wage decelerated in November, reflecting lower extra payments in the private sector. Nevertheless, over the first eleven months of 2025, wage growth was higher in both the public and private sectors, reaching 4.2% overall (in real terms).
Slovenian Economic Mirror 1/2026: Economic activity supported by construction and household consumption last year amid weaker manufacturing output and exports
Manufacturing output and exports, which recorded a slight month-on-month increase in November, were lower year-on-year over the first eleven months of the year. The largest declines were recorded in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers and other transport equipment and in the…
Charts of the week from 12 to 16 January 2026: activity in construction, number of persons in employment, current account of the balance of payments and other charts
Growth in the value of construction put in place strengthened markedly from the second quarter of 2025 onwards; over the first eleven months it was one tenth higher year-on-year. The number of persons in employment has stagnated for several months (seasonally…
Charts of the week from 6 to 9 January 2026: unemployment, production volume in manufacturing and government bond
In December, the number of unemployed persons remained unchanged month-on-month (seasonally adjusted), but slightly exceeded the very low level recorded in December 2024. The number of long-term unemployed and older unemployed persons continued to be lower than a year earlier, whereas the number of…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
This year, GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.8% (down from 1.7% last year), well below the levels projected in the spring (2.1%). The deceleration is primarily attributable to weaker export activity, particularly in the first half of the year, reflecting the economy’s relatively strong exposure to challenges in European industry. Economic growth in 2025 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, especially household consumption, supported by robust employment and accelerating wage growth. Inflation in 2025 (2.9% year-on-year at end-2025) will be somewhat higher than last year, mainly due to higher food prices, and above the level projected in the spring, before gradually easing over the next two years (towards 2.3%).
Labour market
Employment is projected to decline on average in 2025, and then largely stagnate over the following two years, while unemployment is expected to remain low throughout the entire period. Nominal wage growth in 2025 will exceed last year’s growth, driven mainly by increases in the public sector (phasing-in of the wage reform) before easing somewhat thereafter. Real wage growth will exceed the rates observed a decade ago.
International trade
Total exports this year are expected to remain broadly unchanged from last year, and significantly below the levels projected in the spring. Goods exports are projected to decline, mainly due to lower exports of intermediate goods, while services exports are expected to increase. With a gradual improvement in foreign demand, a recovery in the export-oriented sector of the economy is anticipated over the next two years. The current account surplus is gradually declining.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.