Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2025: Higher economic growth this year than last year, albeit slightly lower than expected in autumn, significantly increased uncertainty in the international environment
Economic growth is expected to strengthen to 2.1% this year. Domestic consumption will be a key driver of higher GDP growth this year, in particular continued growth in private consumption supported by rising wages and social transfers, as well as a recovery in investment after last year’s decline. In particular, investment…
Charts of the week from 17 to 21 February 2025: number of persons in employment, average gross wage per employee and electricity consumption by consumption group
The number of persons in employment fell month-on-month in December last year (after stagnating during the year) due to…
Charts of the week from 10 to 14 February 2025: GDP, production volume in manufacturing, activity in construction and current account of the balance of payments (copy 1)
In 2024, GDP expanded by 1.6% in real terms. As expected, government consumption grew strongly, and exports performed…
Charts of the week from 3 to 7 February 2025: consumer prices, unemployment, value of fiscally verified invoices and exports and imports of goods
Consumer prices fell month-on-month in January (by 0.4%), but their year-on-year growth edged up slightly (to 2.0%)…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.1% this year, which is slightly lower than expected in the autumn forecast. Domestic consumption will be a key driver of GDP growth this year, in particular continued growth in private consumption supported by rising wages and social transfers, as well as a recovery in investment after last year’s decline. Economic growth is expected to accelerate slightly over the next two years. Average inflation will be 2.3% this year. While price increases will remain moderate in most groups, services will continue to outpace overall inflation. In the absence of shocks, inflation is expected to fall slightly after 2025 and hover around 2%.
Labour market
In addition to economic conditions, demographic changes also play a significant role in shaping the labour market. Given the high level of employment and labour shortages, employment is expected to increase by 0.1% this year and by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively over the next two years, amid moderate economic growth. Unemployment will continue to decline slightly, with the number of registered unemployed falling not only due to the transition into employment, but also due to the increasing transition from unemployment to inactivity or retirement.
International trade
With the gradual recovery in foreign demand, exports of goods and services are expected to continue growing this year and in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace than before the pandemic and the energy crisis. After last year’s strong growth, which moderated markedly in the last quarter, growth in goods exports is expected to align more closely with foreign demand growth, while growth in services exports will accelerate further. The current account surplus remained high last year and will narrow gradually in 2025–2027.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.