Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2025: Slower economic growth this year, well below the spring forecast, followed by somewhat stronger growth in the coming years
GDP growth in 2025 is expected to slow to below 1% (from 1.7% last year to 0.8%), well below what was expected in the spring. The deceleration is primarily attributable to weaker export activity, particularly in the first half of the year, reflecting the economy’s strong exposure to challenges in European industry. Against this backdrop, economic growth in…
Charts of the week from 15 to 19 September 2025: number of persons in employment, activity in construction and Slovenian industrial producer prices
In July, the number of persons in employment remained broadly unchanged compared with previous months and was 0.4% lower year-on-year. It remained lower than a year earlier primarily in administrative and support service activities, construction, and…
Charts of the week from 8 to 12 September 2025: production output in manufacturing, current account of the balance of payments and electricity consumption by consumption group
Manufacturing output increased in July on a monthly basis (seasonally adjusted), following a contraction in the second quarter; in the first seven months, it was 1.1% lower year-on-year. Output in high-technology industries remained higher than a…
Charts of the week from 1 to 5 September 2025: exports and imports of goods, unemployment
After several months of contraction, goods exports increased in July, even though they were still down slightly year-on-year in the first seven months (-0.2%). Goods imports declined in July after having risen in the two previous months; overall,…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
This year, GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.8% (down from 1.7% last year), well below the levels projected in the spring (2.1%). The deceleration is primarily attributable to weaker export activity, particularly in the first half of the year, reflecting the economy’s relatively strong exposure to challenges in European industry. Economic growth in 2025 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, especially household consumption, supported by robust employment and accelerating wage growth. Inflation in 2025 (2.9% year-on-year at end-2025) will be somewhat higher than last year, mainly due to higher food prices, and above the level projected in the spring, before gradually easing over the next two years (towards 2.3%).
Labour market
Employment is projected to decline on average in 2025, and then largely stagnate over the following two years, while unemployment is expected to remain low throughout the entire period. Nominal wage growth in 2025 will exceed last year’s growth, driven mainly by increases in the public sector (phasing-in of the wage reform) before easing somewhat thereafter. Real wage growth will exceed the rates observed a decade ago.
International trade
Total exports this year are expected to remain broadly unchanged from last year, and significantly below the levels projected in the spring. Goods exports are projected to decline, mainly due to lower exports of intermediate goods, while services exports are expected to increase. With a gradual improvement in foreign demand, a recovery in the export-oriented sector of the economy is anticipated over the next two years. The current account surplus is gradually declining.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.