Economic developments in Slovenia remained relatively favourable in April and May despite heightened uncertainty. Real exports and imports of goods, which declined month-on-month in May (following stronger growth at the beginning of the year), mainly due to lower trade in petroleum products (both in value and volume terms), were 3.9% and 6.2% higher, respectively, in the first five months than in the same period last year. Export growth was driven primarily by pharmaceutical products, road vehicles, metals and metal products, and electrical machinery and equipment. Manufacturing output continued to rise month-on-month in May. In the first five months of the year, output was higher than a year earlier in most industries (by 2.3% on average). Among the technological intensity groups, output in the medium-high-technology industries recorded the smallest average year-on-year increase. In addition to the energy-intensive chemicals industry, output also declined in the manufacture of electrical equipment. The start of serial production of a new passenger car boosted output in the manufacture of motor vehicles and other transport equipment. The value of construction put in place strengthened from the beginning of the year, driven primarily by civil-engineering works, and in the first five months it exceeded its level in the same period last year by around one quarter. Real turnover in most trade sectors increased further in April, while total real turnover in market services declined following growth in the first quarter. In the first four months of the year, turnover in trade (up 2.9%) and total turnover in market services (up 5.1%) exceeded their levels in the same period last year. 

Both exports and imports of goods decreased month-on-month in May, although their volume remained higher than a year earlier. Recent developments in goods trade have been shaped primarily by uncertainty in the international environment and significant fluctuations in trade in petroleum products. Following growth in recent months, total real exports of goods declined in May compared with the previous month (–3.7%, seasonally adjusted). After increasing in April, both the volume (real) and the value of petroleum product exports decreased markedly. The decline in May was also due to lower exports in the machinery and equipment group (particularly industrial machinery, electrical machinery and equipment, and, to a lesser extent, road vehicles), which accounts for around one-third of total goods exports. By contrast, exports of pharmaceutical products, other chemical products, and metals and metal products continued to increase. Imports declined compared with the previous month for the second consecutive month (–7.0%, seasonally adjusted), driven to a significant extent by lower imports of petroleum products in both volume and value terms. Among the other main product groups, only imports of consumer goods declined slightly, although these have exhibited pronounced fluctuations in recent months (all seasonally adjusted). In the first five months of this year, real exports were 3.9% higher year-on-year, whereas imports were 6.2% higher. The increase in exports was driven primarily by exports of pharmaceutical products, road vehicles, metals and metal products and electrical machinery and equipment, while import growth was mainly attributable to the machinery and equipment group as a whole (including road vehicles), as well as metals and metal products. 
Amid persistently high uncertainty in the international economic environment, export orders remained relatively weak in June. 

Slovenia’s goods export market share in the EU increased year-on-year at the beginning of this year, following a decline in 2025. Compared with the same period last year, the overall market share increased by 2.8% to 0.50% in the first quarter, while the manufacturing market share rose to 0.56%. The increase was particularly pronounced for certain energy-intensive products (chemicals, non-metallic mineral products and metals), pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Among the larger product groups, the most notable declines were recorded in machinery and equipment and road vehicles. Despite nominal year-on-year growth in exports of road vehicles, the decline in market share for this product group reflected even stronger growth in EU import demand for vehicles, which, in our assessment, was associated with increased demand for electric vehicles in the EU. Among Slovenia’s major trading partners, the market share declined at the beginning of this year in Germany and Austria, while it increased in Italy, France and Croatia. The decomposition of the year-on-year change in Slovenia’s EU market share by product and destination market points primarily to weaker export performance for specific products, while the export structure made no significant contribution to market share growth.

Real exports of services increased month-on-month in May, while imports declined; in the first five months of the year, both were higher than in the same period last year. The month-on-month increase in exports (3.4%) was driven primarily by higher exports of personal health services. We estimate that, excluding these transactions, exports of services declined month-on-month. Exports of tourism-related services also increased compared to the previous month, reaching their highest level on record. Following two months of growth, exports of transport services declined, as did exports of several other major service categories (other business services, ICT services, and construction services). On the import side (–1.4%), following strong growth in the previous month, imports of other business services declined markedly in May (all seasonally adjusted). In the first five months of the year, exports and imports of services were higher than in the same period last year (2.0% and 4.9%, respectively). Year-on-year growth in both exports and imports was driven primarily by increased trade in tourism-related services. Exports of insurance services (to Italy) were also substantially higher than a year earlier, mainly reflecting a sharp increase in the second half of last year. Among the main service categories, exports of transport services and both exports and imports of other business services were also higher.

Following a temporary interruption in April, the strengthening of manufacturing output resumed in May (seasonally adjusted); in the first five months, output was 2.3% higher than in the same period last year. The month-on-month increase in May was driven by most industry groups, classified by technological intensity. On average, only output in the medium-low-technology industries declined slightly (seasonally adjusted). In the first five months, however, output in this group remained above last year’s level mainly in industries that are not energy-intensive (the manufacture of fabricated metal products and the repair and installation of machinery and equipment). Output in the medium-high-technology industries showed the smallest increase compared with a year earlier, on average. In addition to lower year-on-year output in the energy-intensive chemical industry, manufacture of electrical equipment also remained lower year-on-year, having already declined in the previous year. Output in the manufacture of motor vehicles and other transport equipment, which had contracted for most of the past four years, was higher than a year earlier (partly reflecting the start of serial production of a new electric passenger car). Output also increased in most low-technology and high-technology industries. 
The outlook for manufacturing has improved since the beginning of the second quarter. In June, expectations regarding production and employment strengthened again, while the indicator of total order books has been improving from low levels since March.

In May, the value of construction work put in place declined slightly but remained significantly higher than a year earlier. Following strong growth since the beginning of this year, the value of construction put in place decreased slightly in May (-2% seasonally adjusted), but remained significantly higher than in May last year (19%). In the first five months, the value of construction put in place was 24% higher than in the same period last year. The increase was strongest in civil engineering works (30%) and the construction of non-residential buildings (28%), while growth in residential buildings was lower (4%).
Year-on-year growth in construction prices has picked up markedly again this year. The implicit deflator of the value of construction put in place (used to measure construction prices) increased to above 6% in May, the highest level since the beginning of 2023. Year-on-year growth in the construction cost index was even stronger, exceeding 8% in the first quarter (the latest available data). Both indicators suggest that, amid cost pressures and favourable market conditions (strong demand), firms are increasing prices more rapidly.

The nominal value of fiscally verified invoices declined slightly month-on-month in June (seasonally adjusted), following three months of growth, while year-on-year growth remained relatively strong. At 6%, it was similar to the rate recorded in May, when year-on-year growth had doubled compared with April. Year-on-year growth in sales in trade remained high at 7%. As almost three quarters of the total value of fiscally verified invoices were issued in trade, this mainly reflected continued strong growth in retail sales (8%), while growth in the nominal value of fiscally verified invoices in wholesale trade remained modest. Among the major retail trade sectors, relatively strong year-on-year growth continued in sales of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and related parts and accessories (10%); clothing, footwear, pharmaceutical and medical goods (6%); and motor fuels (23%), although the latter was strongly influenced by the high year-on-year increase in petroleum product prices. Growth also strengthened in the retail sale of miscellaneous goods (from 1% to 5%), which accounted for one quarter of the total value of fiscally verified invoices. Compared with May, growth slowed in accommodation and food service activities and in cultural, sports, recreational and other activities (falling from around 10% to 4% in both groups).

Real turnover in most trade sectors continued to increase in April and was also higher year-on-year. Turnover in the sale of motor vehicles increased for the third consecutive month, following the decline recorded around the turn of the year. Retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco products and of non-food products increased for the second consecutive month in April. After a marked increase in March, wholesale turnover declined slightly but remained well above its level at the end of last year (all seasonally adjusted).
In April, and cumulatively over the first four months of the year, sales in all trade sectors, except retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco, was higher than a year earlier. In the first four months, year-on-year growth reached 5% in the sale of motor vehicles, while wholesale trade and retail trade of non-food products each recorded growth of 3%.

Total real turnover in market services declined in April following growth in the first quarter (seasonally adjusted), but remained higher than a year earlier. In professional, scientific and technical activities, turnover declined slightly for the second consecutive month in April after strong growth at the beginning of the year. In month-on-month terms, turnover is particularly volatile in architectural and engineering activities. Turnover also declined further in information and communication, where it had generally been strengthening since the second half of last year. It also decreased slightly in transportation and storage, although it has broadly stagnated since the end of 2024. In accommodation and food service activities, turnover has continued to increase at a moderate pace this year, following stronger growth at the end of last year, albeit with monthly fluctuations. In administrative and support service activities, turnover has been gradually increasing since the beginning of last year, including in April (all seasonally adjusted), but remained slightly below its 2019 average. In the first four months of the year, total real turnover was 5.1% higher year-on-year, with the strongest increase recorded in professional, scientific and technical activities.

The volume of road and rail freight transport has mostly declined since 2022, with rail freight recording a particularly strong increase in the first quarter of 2026. Overall, the volume of road transport increased by less than 1% on a quarterly basis (seasonally adjusted), but was 5% lower than a year earlier. In road transport performed by Slovenian vehicles, the volume of cross-trade remained further below its 2019 level than the volume of transport at least partly taking place on Slovenian territory (exports, imports and national transport). The share of cross-trade in total transport (44%) remained below its pre-pandemic level (49% in 2019). Rail freight transport on Slovenian territory increased markedly in the first quarter, by 12% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) and by 9% year-on-year. Nevertheless, it remained well below its 2019 level.

At the beginning of the second quarter, household consumption was higher than a year earlier, driven primarily by purchases of new passenger cars and non-food products. Following relatively strong year-on-year growth in the first quarter (6%), households further increased purchases of new passenger cars in April and May (up 25% year-on-year in the two months combined). Year-on-year, spending on tourism services in the two months increased slightly both abroad (by 2% in nominal terms, while the number of overnight stays by Slovenian residents in Croatia rose by 6%) and domestically (with the number of domestic overnight stays in Slovenia increasing by 2%). In April, households also spent more on non-food products than a year earlier (up 2%), while turnover in the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco products was lower year-on-year 
(-2%).
Household consumption growth in the second quarter also appears to have been similar to that in the first quarter, as indicated by the year-on-year growth in the nominal value of fiscally verified invoices (a proxy for final sales of goods and services), which remained similar to that recorded in the first quarter (5%), while inflation was higher than in the first quarter.

Year-on-year growth in dwelling prices strengthened in the first quarter, amid relatively high transaction volumes. Following average growth of 7.3% in 2025 (after similar increases in 2023 and 2024), dwelling prices were 9.3% higher than in the first quarter of 2025 and 3.0% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025. Prices of existing dwellings increased by one tenth year-on-year. The number of transactions in this segment, which had already increased by one third year-on-year in 2025 following three consecutive years of decline, continued to rise. Prices of newly built dwellings also increased year-on-year (by 6.8%), while the number of transactions in this segment – which accounts for only a small share of all dwelling transactions (3%) – declined further.

Electricity consumption in the distribution network was 3.4% higher year-on-year in June, partly due to one more working day. Across the main consumer groups, industrial electricity consumption increased by 0.4%, consumption by other business users by 5.3%, and household electricity consumption by 6.8%.

The economic sentiment indicator, which had fallen to its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2023 in April, continued to improve in June. It exceeded its level from a year earlier and, for the first time since January this year, also rose above its long-term average. The improvement in June was driven by the confidence indicators for consumers and manufacturing, both of which increased for the second consecutive month. On a year-on-year basis, both indicators were also higher, although the manufacturing confidence indicator remained below its long-term average. The confidence indicators for construction, retail trade and services, all of which remained above their long-term averages, declined in June. In construction and services, where confidence has generally been declining since the beginning of the year, the indicators were also slightly lower than a year earlier in June.

Households’ financial situation remained broadly unchanged in the second quarter compared with the first quarter and was better than a year earlier; it deteriorated only among households in the second income quartile. Among households facing financial distress, the proportion of those running into debt and those having to draw on savings to meet their needs remained broadly unchanged quarter-on-quarter, but were slightly lower than a year earlier. 
Compared with the previous quarter, the share of households facing financial distress declined the most in the lowest income quartile (by 2.9 p.p.; by 5.5 p.p. year-on-year, to 9.1%). It increased only in the second income quartile (by 2.8 p.p.; by 2.0 p.p. year-on-year), where, at 9.5%, it was the highest among all income quartiles.

According to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRDAP), the number of persons in employment in May remained broadly unchanged relative to previous months (seasonally adjusted) and compared with a year earlier. The number of persons in employment declined slightly year-on-year (0.2%), while the number of self-employed increased (0.8%). Despite the relatively stable overall number of persons in employment, considerable differences in year-on-year changes across activities persist. The largest year-on-year declines in the number of persons in employment were recorded in administrative and support service activities (–2.4%), trade (–1.5%) and manufacturing (–1.2%), while employment was higher in public services overall (2.2%), particularly in health and social work (3.7%). The number of foreign citizens in employment increased by 2.6% year-on-year in May, while the number of Slovenian nationals in employment declined by 0.6%, primarily due to retirements.

The number of registered unemployed continued to decline slightly month-on-month in June (-0.2%, seasonally adjusted) and was also lower year-on-year (-0.4%). According to the original data, 42,245 people were unemployed at the end of June, 1.9% fewer than at the end of May and the lowest number recorded since 1990. The year-on-year decline in the number of long-term unemployed and unemployed persons aged over 50 continued (down 5.8% and 3.8% respectively). The number of unemployed young people (aged 15–29), which has been increasing year-on-year since October 2024, was 3.2% higher than a year earlier in June. However, the pace of year-on-year growth has gradually moderated since the beginning of the year. There were 8,621 unemployed young people in June. This may be attributable, at least in part, to the increase in the size of cohorts entering the labour market (between 2023 and 2025, the number of residents aged 15–29 increased by ten thousand or 3.3%), while demand for labour has weakened. In the first six months of the year, the number of unemployed persons was 0.4% lower year-on-year.

Year-on-year nominal growth in the average gross wage remained relatively high in April (6.9%), with similar growth rates in the private (6.9%) and public (6.6%) sectors. Wage growth in the private sector was strongly influenced by an increase in the minimum wage introduced at the beginning of the year (+16%). The highest wage growth was recorded in accommodation and food service activities, construction and manufacturing. With the exception of manufacturing, these are among the activities with the highest shares of minimum wage recipients. In the public sector, robust wage growth reflects last year’s wage reform and agreements reached through collective bargaining.
In the first four months of 2026, the average gross wage increased by 7% in nominal terms (4.1% in real terms) – by 6.2% in the public sector (3.3% in real terms) and by 7.3% in the private sector (4.4% in real terms).

The number of unemployment benefit (UB) recipients and the number of financial social assistance (FSA) beneficiaries declined again year-on-year in April. There were 12,793 UB recipients, representing a decrease of 3.2% compared with one year earlier and well below the long-term average. Their share of all unemployed persons was 29% (compared with 29.8% in April last year). With the continued decline in the number of long-term unemployed persons, who are often eligible for FSA, the number of FSA beneficiaries also decreased further. In April, 70,100 persons were eligible for FSA, 2.6% fewer than a year earlier, representing a similar decline to that observed in recent months.

Year-on-year consumer price inflation remained unchanged in June (3.6%), while prices increased by 0.8% month-on-month. Monthly inflation was driven primarily by stronger seasonal factors, notably a 16.7% increase in package holiday prices, which was almost twice as high as in June last year. This also contributed to a marked acceleration in year-on-year services inflation, which reached 5%, its highest level since March 2024, contributing 1.7 p.p. to overall year-on-year inflation. In addition to services prices, the groups affected by energy prices (housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; and transport) continued to make a significant contribution (2.0 p.p.) to year-on-year inflation. The contribution of other goods to year-on-year inflation remained modest. Year-on-year price growth in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group continued to moderate, falling to 0.5%, the lowest rate in the past two years. Prices of semi-durable goods (–0.2%) and durable goods (–0.8%) were lower than a year earlier. HICP inflation stood at 3.7% in June, almost one percentage point higher than in the euro area (2.8%). Higher energy price inflation continued to make the largest contribution to inflation, while the contribution of services price inflation also increased somewhat.

Slovenian industrial producer prices continued to increase in May. They rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year growth accelerated to 2.1%, the highest level since August 2023. On a year-on-year basis, prices increased across all industrial groups, with the strongest growth recorded for durable consumer goods (5.9%). Price growth in the remaining groups ranged from 0.9% (non-durable consumer goods) to 2.3% (intermediate goods and energy). The gap between price growth in the domestic and foreign markets continued to narrow: year-on-year growth in industrial producer prices on the domestic market increased by 0.4 p.p. (to 2.9%), while growth in foreign markets accelerated by 1 p.p. (to 1.3%).

The year-on-year growth in the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors remained largely unchanged at around 8.0% in May. Lending to both enterprises and NFIs (7.2%) and households (8.4%) continued to record relatively strong growth. Growth in household housing loans continued to strengthen, reaching 9.9% year-on-year. At around EUR 1 billion, new housing lending in the first five months of the year was almost one-quarter higher than in the corresponding period last year. Year-on-year growth in consumer loans (8.6%) continued to moderate gradually. Deposits of the non-bank sector increased by 5.0% year-on-year in May. Growth continued to be driven primarily by overnight deposits (7.8%). By contrast, time deposits declined by 7.0%, reflecting low interest rates, which remain among the lowest in the euro area. With deposit growth easing somewhat, the loan-to-deposit ratio for the non-bank sector has also increased this year, although at 0.74 it remains at a low level. The share of non-performing exposures in the banking system (April data) has remained at 1.6% since the end of last year.

In the second quarter of this year, the yield to maturity of the Slovenian government bond increased by 17 basis points, to 3.42%. Government bond yields also increased in other euro area countries. For most of the second quarter, yields remained relatively stable, fluctuating around the levels reached at the end of March. In mid-June, following the signing of an agreement between Iran and the United States, yields declined amid lower oil prices and expectations of weaker inflationary pressures. The spread between Slovenian and German government bond yields widened slightly compared with the first quarter, increasing by 2 basis points to 41 basis points.

The 12-month current account surplus decreased by EUR 1,4 billion compared to the previous 12-month period, reaching EUR 2.3 billion (3.1% of estimated GDP). The primary driver of this decline was a higher annual goods deficit, as imports growth outpaced exports growth. The deficit in primary income also widened, mainly due to higher net outflows of equity income (dividends and profits), and partly owing to lower subsidies received from the EU budget and higher government interest payments on external debt. The services surplus, which remained high, increased primarily as a result of higher surpluses in insurance and transport services and travel. The lower secondary income deficit resulted from higher net transfers to the private sector.

In the first five months of this year, the deficit of the consolidated balance of public finances was higher year-on-year. It totalled EUR 930.6 million compared to EUR 632 million in the same period last year. In the first five months, revenues increased by 11.8% year-on-year, which is more than in the same period of 2025 (4.5%). Revenue growth was driven primarily by higher social security contributions (mainly owing to the introduction of the long-term care contribution in July last year), tax revenues and revenue from EU funds. Growth in tax revenue was driven primarily by corporate income tax and value added tax receipts. Revenue from EU funds also increased more strongly in the first five months than in the same period last year, mainly reflecting receipts for the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). Expenditure increased by 13.7% year-on-year in the first five months of 2026 (by 9.5% in the same period last year). The largest contributions to expenditure growth came from compensation of employees, reflecting the implementation of the public sector wage reform, and transfers to individuals and households. The increase in the latter was mainly driven by higher expenditure on pensions, unemployment benefits, which were raised at the beginning of this year, and expenditure on personal assistance. Higher transfers for the provision of scheduled public passenger transport services under newly awarded concessions, together with higher transfers to war disabled persons, war veterans and victims of war violence, also contributed to the increase in transfers. Year-on-year growth was also relatively strong in expenditure on goods and services (particularly expenditure on the routine maintenance of public buildings) and in capital expenditure, especially on new construction, reconstruction and renovation. In the first five months, expenditure growth was also significantly affected by higher allocations to reserves and transfers to budgetary funds, most of which were channelled to the Recovery and Resilience Plan Fund and the Reconstruction Fund.

Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first five months of 2026 (at EUR 142.1 million). During this period, Slovenia received EUR 478 million from the EU budget, i.e. EUR 290 million more than in the same period last year. At the same time, Slovenia contributed EUR 336 million to the EU budget, EUR 41.3 million more than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Higher inflows are mainly related to the implementation of the RRP (EUR 303 million) and projects financed from the Structural Funds (EUR 61 million). In the first five months, receipts from the RRP reached a level close to the amount of reimbursements expected under the adopted budget for 2026 (83% of the amount envisaged in the adopted budget). The marked increase in RRP-related revenue from the EU budget in April was followed by a further increase in May (reflecting the recording of funds received under the fifth payment request). In March 2026, Slovenia also submitted its sixth (penultimate) payment request, with the maximum possible net disbursement amounting to around EUR 41 million. According to the Information on the Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (June 2026), by the end of May, around 35% of the estimated annual expenditure for 2026 had been incurred. Since the start of implementation, approximately three quarters of the total available RRP funding had been disbursed from the RRP Fund by the end of May.