Forecasts of Economic Trends
IMAD's forecasts represent background documents used by Slovenia's government in preparing economic policy measures and drafting the state budget. They include analyses and forecasts for the current year and the following two years. They are released twice a year, in March and September. In the event of extraordinary events in Slovenia or abroad, interim forecasts are prepared.
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2024
Economic growth is expected to slow this year (to 1.5%) and thus be lower than expected in IMAD’s Spring Forecast (2.4%). Overall export growth is expected to be lower than projected in the Spring Forecast due to weaker growth in foreign demand and a decline in services exports. At the same time, it is expected to be lower than growth in foreign demand also this year due to pressures from rising…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2024
Economic growth will pick up this year (from 1.6% last year to 2.4%), albeit somewhat more modestly than we had forecast in the autumn (2.8%). Economic activity will benefit from continued investment growth, easing of inflationary pressures and a recovery in foreign demand, although this will be somewhat weaker than expected in the autumn. We expect a recovery in goods exports after last year’s…
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2023
Economic growth is slowing this year, especially in the export-oriented part of the economy, growth in private consumption is also lower than last year, while construction investment continues to increase. In its Autumn Forecast, the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) forecasts real GDP growth of 1.6% this year. This is slightly lower than what was predicted in the spring…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2023
Since autumn, uncertainty about energy supply and prices started to recede and the outlook for economic growth in Slovenia’s main trading partners has improved accordingly, although it will remain significantly lower this year and in the next two years than last year. Economic growth in Slovenia is also expected to slow significantly this year (from 5.4% last year to 1.8%), but will exceed our…
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2022
The Forecast was prepared under conditions of great uncertainty, mainly related to the situation on the energy markets, which is deteriorating as the war in Ukraine continues, contributing to the worsening of the economic outlook for Slovenia’s main trading partners. In the Autumn Forecast, IMAD predicts GDP growth of 5% for this year, which is 0.8 p.p. more than was predicted in the spring,…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2022
The Spring Forecast of Economic Trends was prepared in a situation of high uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. After a deep downturn in 2020 and a strong rebound last year, we expect GDP growth of 4.2% this year, which is 0.5 p.p. lower than projected in our Autumn Forecast. We had already projected a slowdown of growth before the start of the war in Ukraine, mainly due to last year’s high…
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2021
The economic outlook has improved and we expect GDP growth of 6.1% this year. Mainly due to higher forecasts in the international environment, faster-than-expected activity growth, especially in the second quarter and the summer months, and the continued adjustment of businesses and consumers to the changed conditions, our forecast is higher than projected in the Spring Forecast (4.6%). After a…
Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2021
After last year’s sharp contraction of economic activity, we forecast 4.6% GDP growth for this year. Assuming an improvement in the epidemiological situation and a gradual increase in vaccination coverage, the recovery should start in the second quarter and accelerate in the second half of the year – these are also the assumptions of the central forecasts for main trading partners. Particularly…
Winter Forecast of Economic Trends 2020
In the Winter Forecast IMAD projects a 6.6% decline in GDP for this year. After a deep fall in the second quarter, the economy recovered even more than expected in the third quarter. For the last quarter, we expect a renewed decline, but it will be smaller than in the spring, partly due to the adaptation of businesses and consumers to the new circumstances. We estimate that the economic impact of…
Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2020
In the Autumn Forecast, IMAD predicts a 6.7% decline in GDP for this year. The forecasts for Slovenia’s main trading partners for this year have improved somewhat since June. With the recovery of economic activity and, in particular, with the agreement at the EU level on the financial package for faster recovery of the EU economy, confidence indicators also improved significantly in the period…