Spring forecast

The Spring Forecast envisages GDP growth strengthening to 3.6% this year and then hovering around 3% in 2018 and 2019. Favourable labour market trends will persist, but towards the end of the forecasting period they will be increasingly characterised by demographic change. After last year’s strongest growth of the average wage in five years, we expect its further strengthening in 2017–2019. Inflation will strengthen to around 2% this year particularly owing to higher energy prices; amid a gradual increase in core inflation, it will remain at similar levels in the next two years. The risks to the central scenario of the Spring Forecast, which arise from the international environment, are mainly negative; in the domestic environment, upside risks predominate.